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Introduction to Risk and Return
Principles of Corporate Finance Tenth Edition Chapter 7 Introduction to Risk and Return Slides by Matthew Will McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 1 1 1 1 2

Topics Covered Over a Century of Capital Market History
Measuring Portfolio Risk Calculating Portfolio Risk How Individual Securities Affect Portfolio Risk Diversification & Value Additivity 2 2 2 2 3 2

The Value of an Investment of \$1 in 1900
13

The Value of an Investment of \$1 in 1900
Real Returns 13

Average Market Risk Premia (by country)
Risk premium, % Country

Dividend Yield Dividend yields in the U.S.A. 1900–2008

Stock Market Index Returns
Rates of Return Stock Market Index Returns Percentage Return Year Source: Ibbotson Associates 14

Histogram of Annual Stock Market Returns
Measuring Risk Histogram of Annual Stock Market Returns ( ) # of Years Return %

Measuring Risk Variance - Average of squared deviations from mean.
Standard Deviation – Square root of the variance. A measure of volatility.

Measuring Risk Coin Toss Game-calculating variance and standard deviation

Measuring Risk 19

Equity Market Risk (by country)
Average Risk ( ) Standard Deviation of Annual Returns, %

Annualized Standard Deviation of the DJIA over the preceding 52 weeks
Dow Jones Risk Annualized Standard Deviation of the DJIA over the preceding 52 weeks (1900 – 2008) Standard Deviation (%) Years

Measuring Risk Diversification - Strategy designed to reduce risk by spreading the portfolio across many investments. Unique Risk - Risk factors affecting only that firm. Also called “diversifiable risk.” Market Risk - Economy-wide sources of risk that affect the overall stock market. Also called “systematic risk.” 18

Comparing Returns

Measuring Risk 20

Measuring Risk 21

Portfolio Risk The variance of a two stock portfolio is the sum of these four boxes 19

Portfolio Risk Example
Suppose you invest 60% of your portfolio in Exxon Mobil and 40% in Coca Cola. The expected dollar return on your Exxon Mobil stock is 10% and on Coca Cola is 15%. The expected return on your portfolio is: 19

Portfolio Risk Another Example
Suppose you invest 60% of your portfolio in Exxon Mobil and 40% in Coca Cola. The expected dollar return on your Exxon Mobil stock is 10% and on Coca Cola is 15%. The standard deviation of their annualized daily returns are 18.2% and 27.3%, respectively. Assume a correlation coefficient of 1.0 and calculate the portfolio variance. 19

Portfolio Risk Another Example
Suppose you invest 60% of your portfolio in Exxon Mobil and 40% in Coca Cola. The expected dollar return on your Exxon Mobil stock is 10% and on Coca Cola is 15%. The standard deviation of their annualized daily returns are 18.2% and 27.3%, respectively. Assume a correlation coefficient of 1.0 and calculate the portfolio variance. 19

Portfolio Risk 19

Portfolio Risk Example Correlation Coefficient = .4
Stocks s % of Portfolio Avg Return ABC Corp % % Big Corp % % Standard Deviation = weighted avg = 33.6 Standard Deviation = Portfolio = 28.1 Real Standard Deviation: = (282)(.62) + (422)(.42) + 2(.4)(.6)(28)(42)(.4) = CORRECT Return : r = (15%)(.60) + (21%)(.4) = 17.4%

Portfolio Risk Let’s Add stock New Corp to the portfolio
Example Correlation Coefficient = .4 Stocks s % of Portfolio Avg Return ABC Corp % % Big Corp % % Standard Deviation = weighted avg = 33.6 Standard Deviation = Portfolio = 28.1 Return = weighted avg = Portfolio = 17.4% Let’s Add stock New Corp to the portfolio

Portfolio Risk NOTE: Higher return & Lower risk
Example Correlation Coefficient = .3 Stocks s % of Portfolio Avg Return Portfolio % % New Corp % % NEW Standard Deviation = weighted avg = 31.80 NEW Standard Deviation = Portfolio = NEW Return = weighted avg = Portfolio = 18.20% NOTE: Higher return & Lower risk How did we do that? DIVERSIFICATION

Portfolio Risk To calculate portfolio variance add up the boxes
The shaded boxes contain variance terms; the remainder contain covariance terms. 1 2 3 4 5 6 N To calculate portfolio variance add up the boxes STOCK STOCK

Portfolio Risk Market Portfolio - Portfolio of all assets in the economy. In practice a broad stock market index, such as the S&P Composite, is used to represent the market. Beta - Sensitivity of a stock’s return to the return on the market portfolio.

Portfolio Risk The return on Dell stock changes on average
by 1.41% for each additional 1% change in the market return. Beta is therefore 1.41.

Portfolio Risk The middle line shows that a well
Diversified portfolio of randomly selected stocks ends up with 1 and a standard deviation equal to the market’s—in this case 20%. The upper line shows that a well-diversified portfolio with 1.5 has a standard deviation of about 30%—1.5 times that of the market. The lower line shows that a well-diversified portfolio with .5 10%—half that of the market.

Portfolio Risk

Portfolio Risk Covariance with the market Variance of the market

Beta

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