1. Martin O’Malley, Governor | Anthony G. Brown, Lt. Governor | Robert M. Summers, Ph.D., Secretary PM 2.5 Prediction & Analysis: Maryland’s Toolbox Laura Warren, Senior Meteorologist National Air Quality Conference February 11, 2014

2. PM 2.5 Prediction & Analysis Background PM 2.5 Progress Climatology Forecasting & Analysis Tools Case Studies 2

3. Progress with PM 2.5 EPA revised the annual PM 2.5 NAAQS from 15 to 12 ug/m 3 in 2012 Retained the 24-hour NAAQS of 35 ug/m 3 Many areas already meet the new annual NAAQS Many areas also already meet the 24-hour PM 2.5 NAAQS of 1997 and 2006 Credit: EPA 3

4. Progress with PM 2.5 in Maryland Maryland is measuring clean data with both the annual and the daily PM 2.5 standards Seeking redesignation to attainment status from EPA for Baltimore and Washington, D.C. nonattainment areas Maryland Healthy Air Act and other state, regional, and federal control strategies have played a large role in this improvement Annual Fine Particles in Maryland Daily Fine Particles in Maryland Previous NAAQS Current NAAQS 4

5. PM 2.5 Composition Sulfate is the largest component at nearly 30% Organic carbon is second at about 25% Nitrate and ammonium are about 10% each During the summer, sulfate contributes most to PM 2.5 while nitrate drives wintertime trends PM 2.5 Composition at Essex, MD 2004 – 2006 Credit: MDE, 2008 5

6. Maryland PM 2.5 Climatology Seasonally, PM 2.5 exhibits 2 maximums June – August Late December – February, depending on the region 5 exceedance days per year are observed on average 4 exceedance days in 2013 Credit: W. F. Ryan & N. T. Wiles, 2012 Metropolitan Baltimore 7-Day Running Average 24-Hour PM 2.5 6

7. Revised PM 2.5 AQI Revised AQI effective March 2013 Changed low Moderate range from 15.5 to 12.1 ug/m 3 No change to Code Orange+ Impacts on Maryland About 70 more Moderate days for PM 2.5 More information on Maryland and the revised AQI is here.here +70 days No Change in USG, Unhealthy, Very Unhealthy AQI Days 7

8. Prediction & Analysis Tools used by MDE for PM 2.5 will be highlighted from multiple perspectives: Air quality forecasting Poor air quality case studies Forecast verification Understanding severe episodes Exceptional events Unusual or naturally occurring events that are not reasonably controllable causing an exceedance of the NAAQS Clear, causal relationship between the measurement and the event Measured concentration were in excess of normal historical fluctuations Prove there would have been no exceedance but for the event 8

9. Well-Known Forecasting Tools AirNow-Tech Navigator Data query WPC products including the model diagnostics discussion Meteorological models NCEP Weather Underground Penn State e-WALL HYSPLIT trajectories Air quality models Credit: AirNow, Environment Canada, NASA, NCAR, NCDAQ, NOAA, NRL; Initial design: D. Nguyen 9

10. Airmass Transport HYSPLIT Trajectories Web-based Forecasting and retrospective analysis Comparisons between GFS vs. NAM trajectories PC-based for retrospective analysis Generate multiple trajectories in a batch process Cluster analysis can be further investigating using statistical software like R or MeteoInfo TrajStat Cluster Analysis: Jennifer Hains, PhD 10

11. Airmass Transport HYSPLIT Dispersion Model Can provide a forecaster with a rough idea of a wildfire’s PM 2.5 transport Must run the dispersion model as a “prescribed burn” Model needs to know… Coordinates of the fire location Acreage of the burn area Inciweb website may have this information available Graphics or KML is generated at the user’s request 11

12. Boundary Layer Height The planetary boundary layer height (PBL) is important, especially for wintertime episodes Obtained from: NWS station skew-T’s Lidars Radar wind profilers (RWP) and radio acoustic sounding systems (RASS) Virtual temperature Signal-to-noise ratio Credit: NASA, Plymouth State University 12

13. Boundary Layer Height Signal-to-Noise Ratio Comparable to backscatter from lidar Useful for post analysis PBL heights analyzed subjectively or by an algorithm developed by UMBC dB Source: MDE PBL analyzed by MDE meteorologist Residual layer Source: UMBC Location: Baltimore, MD Residual layer 13

14. Fire Detection NESDIS Hazard Mapping System (HMS) Hotspots and smoke plumes by satellite analysts NASA FIRMS MODIS email alerts GOES-East Eastern Region satellite imagery Satellite loops provided with visual enhancements to aid in smoke plume detection RGB satellite products MODIS, VIIRS, GOES Can illustrate the direction of smoke transport for exceptional event analysis Credit: NOAA Smoke 14

15. Aerosol Optical Depth Satellite measurements from MODIS, VIIRS, and GASP Helpful for spatial representation of aerosol measurements Most often accessed via the IDEA website Comparisons of AOD between each satellite sensor Very useful interactive platform for VIIRS products Easy to compare AOD for five different quality levels Credit: IDEA, NASA 15

16. Aerosol Optical Depth AERONET Ground-based remote sensing to detect parameters such as AOT and aerosol size distribution Higher temporal resolution than satellite AOD Data quality levels of 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 to select depending on use AERONET Synergy Tool, optimized for episode analysis, provides wide range of datasets 16

17. Air Quality Models NOAA Developmental PM 2.5 Currently used in a qualitative sense, and it seems to do well in this way NOAA Operational Smoke Used to indicate potential impacts to Maryland from nearby fires NRL Operational Aerosol Smoke, sulfate, dust Sulfate can be helpful in summer Comparisons between models NOAA smoke vs. PM 2.5 for exceptional event “but for” case NRL vs. NOAA smoke 17

18. Quebec Wildfires 2002 Air quality influenced by smoke from Quebec wildfires on July 7 - 9, 2002 Northwesterly flow, usually associated with clean air, due to high pressure in the Midwest and low pressure in the Gulf of Maine Resulting air quality: Code Red (Unhealthy) for PM 2.5 Code Purple (Very Unhealthy) for ozone Credit: Environment Canada, NOAA, NASA Predominant Flow Surface Analysis 12z July 7, 2002 18

19. Quebec Wildfires 2002 In this case, limited data at quality level 1.5, but AOD indicates a rising trend AOD size distribution shows primarily fine particles Smoke descending throughout the day 19

20. Good/Moderate Episode 2013 PM 2.5 forecasting for the East Coast is often a battle between Good/Moderate AQI September 8, 2013 A mix of Good and Moderate conditions 24-hour averages: 11 – 18 ug/m 3 Hourly averages: 3 – 30 ug/m 3 Warm and moist conditions ahead of a slow moving cold front Credit: AirNow-Tech, EPA AirData Hourly PM 2.5 i n MD & VA Sept. 8, 2013 Surface Analysis 12z Sept 8, 2013 20

21. Good/Moderate Episode 2013 AOD is somewhat elevated on the 8 th GASP indicated higher AOD than MODIS AOD coverage seems sparse in our region, sometimes due to cloud cover VIIRS cloud screening and other QC processes tend to throw out more data than MODIS, an issue being investigated by NOAA NOAA developmental PM 2.5 model indicated concentrations may not return to the Good range on the 8 th Credit: NOAA WPC, IDEA 21

22. Winter Stagnation 2013 A rare episode of PM 2.5 exceedance days December 2 – 4, 2013 Highest 24-hour average was on the 3 rd at Hagerstown measured 45.7 ug/m 3 Highest values were in rural valley areas like Hagerstown, but urban areas weren’t far behind Persistent high pressure system caused stagnation Some sites (Fairhill) showed the classic diurnal wintertime pattern High nocturnal PM 2.5 followed by relief when the afternoon inversion broke Surface Analysis 00z Dec. 4, 2013 24-Hour Average PM 2.5 Dec. 4, 2013 11/30/1312/1/1312/2/13 12/3/13 12/4/1312/5/13 Credit: NOAA WPC, AirNow-Tech 22

23. Winter Stagnation 2013 In addition to mostly calm winds through the period, a strong temperature inversion trapped pollutants in a shallow boundary layer RASS shows PBL height varying from 100 – 500m on the 4 th Algorithm using the wind profiler’s signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) shows PBL heights between 200 – 600m Profilers’ SNR values are more defined in humid atmospheres and, as a result, the algorithm may perform best in the summer Credit: NOAA/MADIS PBL 23

24. Summary Many meteorological products and tools geared toward aerosols Airmass transport through HYSPLIT trajectory and dispersion model products Boundary layer heights via skew-T, lidar, radar wind profilers, and RASS Many fire detection tools through NASA and NOAA AOD derived from satellite sensors MODIS, VIIRS, and GASP, and ground-based instruments through AERONET Aerosol models run by NOAA for smoke and PM 2.5 as well as by NRL/Monterey for smoke, sulfate, and dust Future Products: Research is ongoing to improve spatial resolution for ground-level PM 2.5 through the integration of satellite data, particularly in air monitor sparse areas AirNow Satellite Data Processor (ASDP) NASA Air Quality Applied Sciences Team (AQAST) NASA DISCOVER-AQ Mission 24

25. Resources Measurements: NASA AERONET data synergy tooldata synergy tool NASA FIRMS MODIS fire alertsMODIS fire alerts NASA MicroPulse Lidar Network (MPLNET)MicroPulse Lidar Network NOAA/MADIS Cooperative Agency ProfilersCooperative Agency Profilers NOAA/NESDIS Hazard Mapping SystemHazard Mapping System NOAA/NESDIS IDEAIDEA NOAA/NESDIS satellite loops with enhancementssatellite loops NOAA/NCDC recent snowfall mapsrecent snowfall maps NOAA/NOHRSC national snow analysisnational snow analysis UMBC Smog BlogSmog Blog Models: MeteoInfo TrajStatTrajStat NOAA/ARL HYSPLIT, more on automation hereHYSPLIThere NOAA PM 2.5 Developmental ModelPM 2.5 Developmental Model NOAA Smoke ModelSmoke Model NRL/Monterey Aerosol ModelAerosol Model References: Compton, J., R. Delgado, T. Berkoff, and R. Hoff, 2013: Determination of planetary boundary layer height on short spatial and temporal scales: A demonstration of the Covariance Wavelet Transform in ground based wind profiler and lidar measurements. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. doi:10.1175/JTECHD-12-00116.1. Ryan, W. F. and N. T. Wiles, 2012: PM 2.5 Forecast Climatology for Maryland. 28 pp. Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE), 2008: Appendix G-11-2: Weight of Evidence Report Appendices. Baltimore Nonattainment Area PM 2.5 State Implementation Plan and Base Year Inventory. SIP Number: 08- 04. 1735 pp. 25

26. Questions? Laura Warren Air Monitoring Program Maryland Department of the Environment (410) 537-3122 | Laura.Warren@Maryland.govLaura.Warren@Maryland.gov 26