2. Climate Change and Water Resources in China Dr.Wang Shourong China Meteorological Administration(CMA) Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services for Sustainable Development Antaliya, turkey, 16-18 February 2010

3. Largest Worldwide Issue: Water As we enter the 21st Century, a global water crisis threatens the security, stability and environmental sustainability of all nations, particularly those in the developing world.

4. OUTLINE 1 Climate change in the past in China 2 Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources in China 3 Climate change in future and its impacts on hydrology and water resources 4 Conclusions

5. 据文献（ Jones 等， 1999 ）补充 据文献（王绍武， 1998 ）补充 Temperature increased Temperature increased 1.1 ℃ in past 100 years in China Global China

6. Temperature Anomaly from 1959-2008 Temperature Anomaly from 1959-2008 in China （中国气象局国家气候中心）

7. Precipitation decreased in past 100 years

8. Precipitation distribution in China 400mm 800mm 200mm 50mm 25mm 2000mm

9. Precipitation anomaly distribution from 1959-2008 Precipitation anomaly distribution from 1959-2008 （中国气象局气候变化中心）

10. Observed Precipitation Trends Trends of Strom rain days in summer 1960-2005 Blue color (Zhai, et al., 2005)

11. Observed Dryness/wetness Trends Spatial distribution of dryness/wetness in China during 1961-2000 (Zhai, et al., 2009)

12. OUTLINE 1 Climate change in the past in China 2 Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources in China 3 Climate change in future and its impacts on hydrology and water resources 4 Conclusions

13. Haiheriver North China Plain China 501 305 2000 2322 m3 Water Resources per Capita World water recourses per capita is about 7000m3. Water recourses per capita in China is 2300m3, about 1/3 of the world average

14. m3 Water Resources distribution in China

15. 14

16. Decreasing trend in most of rivers Decreasing significantly : Haihe river, Yellow rive, Liao river Slight decreasing: huaihe, songhuajiang, pearl, upstream of Yangtze Slight increasing: down-stream Yangtze，upstream of Huaihe

17. Natural Runoff Change in Tarim Basins in last 50 years

18. Climate and hydrology Change in Qinghai Lake during 1960-1990

19. Runoff Trend in the Yangtze River 1960 － 2000 Average Runoff depth: 552.7mm

20. Main Effects of Climate Change in North China

21. Climate and streamflow change in Yellow River Basin

22. Change & Trend of the Total Water Use in China ( 0.1BCM) Total water use Agriculture water use Urban water use Domestic water use Agriculture water use Urban water use Domestic water use

24. Impacts of Climate change on ground water In last 20 years in Beijing.

25. OUTLINE 1 Climate change in the past in China 2 Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources in China 3 Climate change in future and its impacts on hydrology and water resources 4 Conclusions

26. Projected Temperature in China ensemble from 17 GCMs China

27. Projected Precipitation in China ensemble from 17 GCMs China

28. SRES A2 scenario Spatial distribution of projected trend of dryness/wetness in China during 2000-2050

29. SRES A1B scenario Spatial distribution of projected trend of dryness/wetness in China during 2000-2050

30. SRES B1 scenario Spatial distribution of projected trend of dryness/wetness in China during 2000-2050

31. Northwest North China 0 50 100 150 -50 -100 0 50 100 150 -50 -100 0 50 100 150 -50 -100 19001950200020502100 Precipitation change (anomaly mm) in future in China

32. Projected Runoff in the Yangtze 2010-2050 A2: Slightly decrease (-0.3mm/10a) A1B: No trend detected. B1: Increasing trend (2.14mm/10a) A2: Slightly decrease (-0.3mm/10a) A1B: No trend detected. B1: Increasing trend (2.14mm/10a) Different scenarios has different trend of runoff.

33. Water shortage in Future in China By 2050 A2 Scenario By 2100 A2 Scenario

36. OUTLINE 1 Climate change in the past in China 2 Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources in China 3 Climate change in future and its impacts on hydrology and water resources 4 Conclusions

37. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS (1) Climate has been obviously changing in China for last 100 yeas. Affected by both natural variability and human activities, climatic conditions in China have obviously changed for last 100 years. Temperature in northern part rose about 1.0 ～ 2.5 ℃, while in southern and southwestern parts decreased in 1970- 1980’s and then rose in 1990’s gradually.

38. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS Precipitation was relatively abundant in 1950’s, but reduced afterwards until 1990’s in the whole country. Precipitation in northwest region increased at certain degree while in some areas such as North China decreased obviously.

39. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS (2) Climate change has significant impacts on water resources in China. In last 50 years, besides a few rivers, runoff in most main rivers such as Yangtze River, Huai River, Yellow River, Hai River and liao River abated in different rates. The decreasing rate in Hai River is as high as 22.5 ～ 23.4 percent.

40. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS (3) Climate change trend in future in China According to the simulated results of nested hydrology and climate models, by the year 2030, temperature in China will increase 1.4 ～ 3.1 ℃. Precipitation as a whole in future will augment in certain degree, but in some northern parts increase just slightly or even decrease, while in the Northwest seems to increase obviously.

41. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS (4) Hydrology change and water conditions in future in China In terms of modeling results, runoff in main rivers will increase except a few ones such as Yellow River, but the results have many uncertainties.

42. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS Climate change and population growth will cause water shortage for some basins such as Hai River and Yellow River, which will obstruct socioeconomic sustainable development in the regions.

43. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS (5) In order to adapt and mitigate impacts of climate change on water resources in China, some specific strategies such as water saving, industry structure change, rational water allocation and water contamination disposal have been adopted, and the programs of water transfer from the south to the north have been implementing.

44. Thank you