1. MATSim Destination Choice for Shopping and Leisure Activities1
MATSim Destination Choice for Shopping and Leisure Activities
MATSim User Meeting 2012, Berlin

2. Topics: Destination Choice in MATSim …2
now:
future:
filling the gaps between small-scale choice models and large-scale microsimulations
→ how fancy can the models be?
→ which data are required?

3. MATSim Destination Choice
+ eexplicit
V + eimplicit

4. eij Repeated Draws: Quenched vs. Annealed Randomness
destinations
e00
fixed initial random seed
freezing the generating order of eij
e10
eij
one additional random number
can destroy «quench» i
storing all eij
i,j ~ O(106) -> 4x1012Byte (4TByte)
enn
persons
personi
alternativej
store seed ki
store seed kj
regenerate eij on the fly with
random seed f(ki,kj)

5. Search Space Optimum tdeparture tarrival work shopping home
Dijkstra forwards 1-n
Dijkstra backwards 1-n
approximation
probabilistic choice

6. Filling the Gaps future study (IATBR, STRC)6
future study (IATBR, STRC)
crux of matter in practice → study will be exemplified for specific microsimulation and data (MATSim and Swiss data)
triumvirate of sources for gap:
I. lack of necessary data
II: computational issues
III: lack of recent progress in implementation/application

7. State-of-Art Theoretical Destination Choice Models7 7
broad range of disciplines such as transport and urban planning, marketing and retailing science, economics, geography, psychology.
attributes/choice determinants:
examples:
standard attributes:
prices & incomes
no comprehensive literature review yet

8. State-of-Art Microsimulation Destination Choice Models8 8
person
age, gender, mobility tools, occupancy, home loc (ha), work loc (municipality)
act chain randomly assigned from microcensus
destination
location (ha), open times, rough type (h, w, s, l, e)
validation
counts
→ relatively limited set of attributes
other microsims → similar but no comprehensive literature review yet available

9. I. Lack of Data: Available Data Switzerland9 9
main data sets, complete Switzerland:
census of population (full survey) -> population / person attributes
microcensus (person sample) -> demand
business census (hectare) -> supply (infrastructure)
miv counts (lane) -> validation
only locally available (canton, municipality, city)
pt schedules and lines (*)
parking supply (*)
green times (*)
open times (*)
(*) ZH scenario only

10. I. Lack of Data: “Missing”10 10
“missing” attributes in MATSim
incomes
vot
activity / shop subtypes
size categories (shop)
education
number of employees
store price level
store hours (complete CH)
parking prices
Evt. Tabelle erstellen, mit Auflösung und Umfang des Datensatzes.

11. I. Lack of Data: “Missing”11 11
Should a manual data collection effort be undertaken?
local sim quality
collection costs
Evt. Tabelle erstellen, mit Auflösung und Umfang des Datensatzes.
transferability /
flexibility
detail level of data

12. II. Computational Issues: Choice Sets … Variability12 12
huge destination choice sets, in particular routing very expensive (for assessing an alternative)
microsimulation stochasticity:
no data → sophisticated rolling of a dice + correlations
→ model is not restrained
→ large variability → many runs required
Temporal, spatial resolution -> averaging, smoothing

13. Closing Gaps: Destination Choice Research Avenues Research Avenues13 13
further heterogeneity of agents and alternatives, in particular, prices, income, vot (household budget survey)
finer activity classification
available in microcensus and business census
spatial correlations
agglomeration terms + correlated error terms
choice dimensions interrelation
e.g., mode – destination etc.

14. Closing Gaps: Destination Choice Research Avenues14 14
interaction effects at destinations (e.g., at parking lots)
similar to space-time competition on roads
reduces number of implausibly overloaded facilities
Load category
1: 0 – 33 %
2: %
3: %
4: > 100%
10 % ZH Scenario: 60K agents
destination choice equilibration
e.g., approximate calculation of travel times
errtot = wb errb + we erre + wtt errtt
if (wtt = small) -> tt can be approximated
equilibrium concept is approximate itself