2. Uma iniciativa Apoio

3. Reference Scenario - Government Plan World – GDP growth 2013-2020: 3.8% per year 2021-2030: 3.2% per year Average 2013-2030: 3.6% per year Brazil –GDP Growth 2013-2020: 3.7% per year 2021-2030: 4.1% per year Average 2013-2030: 3.9% per year Oil Price 85 US$/barril

4. Reference Scenario - Government Plan Exchange rate 2.20 R$/US$ Population Total:223 Million Active population from 45.8% in 2005 to 49.7% in 2030 GDP Composition: % VA20102030 Agriculture5.3%5.6% Industry28.1%26.4% Services66.6%68.0%

5. Reference Scenario - Government Plan

7. Scenarios Description ScenarioDescription CPGReference Scenario – Follow trends from Copenhagen Pledges MA1-TMitigation Scenario 1 – (20 US$ carbon tax + mitigation measures) MA2-TMitigation Scenario 2 – (100 US$ carbon tax + mitigation measures) ScenarioDescription (Still working on them) MA1-NMitigation Scenario 1 – (mitigation measures, no Carbon Tax) MA2-NMitigation Scenario 2 – (mitigation measures, no Carbon Tax)

8. Mitigation Scenario 1 SECTOR MITIGATION MEASURE WASTE Methane destruction > Reference scenario SERVICES Moreefficient light bulbs ENERGY Sugar Cane Bagasse Wind Power TRANSPORT Traffic management Bike ways Energy efficiency programs for light vehicles Ethanol: + 6 Billion liters Biodiesel – B10 BRT Energy efficiency programs for heavy vehicles AFOLU Biological nitrogen fixation (Corn) Pasture restoration crop-livestock-forestry integration systems (+2M ha) Aforestation – 12.5 M ha Reforestation – Atlantic forest Sugar cane area increase (M1) INDUSTRY Cement: Reduction from 3,50 GJ/t clinquer in 2010 to 3,1 in 2030 and increase co-processing in 75% from 2010 level Steel: 2% reduction in energy intensity related to 2010

9. Mitigation Scenario 2 SETOR MEDIDAS DE MITIGAÇÃO RESIDENTIAL Solar waterheating Efficient light bulbs Efficient refrigerators WASTE Methane destruction > Mitigation scenario 1 SERVICES Efficient light bulbs > Mitigation scenario 1 ENERGY Bagasse = MA1 WindPower = MA1 Refining efficiency > MA1 Hidro power increase > reference scenario TRANSPORT Traffic management Ethanol: + 16 Billion liters (6 billion liters from 2G) Bike ways Energy efficiency programs for light vehicles Energy efficiency programs for heavy vehicles Modal shift to rail and hidro for load transport VLT Subway Biodiesel - B15

10. Mitigation Scenario 2 AFOLU Biological nitrogen fixation (Corn) Pasture restoration crop-livestock-forestry integration systems (+2M ha) Aforestation – 15 M ha Reforestation – Atlantic forest Sugar cane area increase (M2) INDUSTRY Cement: Reduction from 3,50 GJ/t clinquer in 2010 to 2.85 in 2030 and increase co-processing in 75% from 2010 level Steel: 5% reduction in energy intensity related to 2010 SECTORMITIGATION MEASURES

11. Modelling mitigation measures in IMACLIM-BR IMACLIM-BR is a hybrid general equilibrium model Monetary ( M R$2005) e phisical (Ktep) flows are represented Mitigation measures modelling: Technical coefficients changes according to Bottom- up information: Fuel changes or reduction: technical coefficients are changed according to sectoral specific information for each measure Investments – Capital intensity of the sector changes according to sectoral specific information for each measure

12. Methodological Approach Mitigation Measures Identification Costs and Abatement Potential Sectorial models simulation Costs and potentials verified and/or corrected Simulation of the measures in IMACLIM Correction of Level of Activity of the sector and balance between supply and demand Results for SBT 4

13. 20052013CPG-2030MA1-TMA2-T Population (10^6)185196223 GDP (10^12 R$2005)2.14 3.24 5.54 5.32 5.04 GDP Growth per year (%) 3.87%3.70%3.48% GDP variation in relation to CPG in 2030-4%-10% GHG emission reduction in relation to CGP in 2030-15,8%-33,4% GHG emissions (Mt CO2eq./year)2351153912961025 GDP per capita (10^3 R$2005)11.5716.52 24.83 23.84 22.60 Macroeconomic Results

14. 20052013CPG-2030MA1-TMA2-T Total Jobs (10^6) 91.21100.06 126.18 125.32 124.55 Unemployment rate(%)9.90%6.70%5.19%5.84%6.41% Price index in relation to 2005 (%) 4,7% 6,4% 12,5% Trade Balance (10^6 R$2005)78.8 3.9015.8432.75 44.32 TradeBalance (% GDP)3.70%0.12%0.29%0.62%0.88% Investment rate (% of GDP)15.50%18.19%20.84%21.06%20.78% Investments excluding mitigation (10^12 R$2005)0.330.59 1.15 1.12 1.05 Total Mitigation Investments 2015-2030 (10^9 R$2005) 230.06 563.82 Mitigation investments in 2030 (Bi de R$2005) 11.71 29.26 Mit. Invest./GDP in 20300.22%0.58% Macroeconomic Results

15. Phisical production - Energy goods

16. Macroeconomic Results Phisical production – Industrial goods

17. Macroeconomic Results Phisical Production – Other sectors

18. Macroeconomic Results

19. Income Classes definitions Income ClassMinimum wages in base year (125 US$ in 2005) Population distribution Class 1Up to 2 mwPoorest 15% Class 2from 3 to 10 mwNext 55% Class 3More than 10 mwRichest 30%

20. Macroeconomic Results GDP per Capita(R$ 2005) Average Income by Class (R$ 2005) TotalClass 1Class 2Class 3 Base year - 2005 11,588 1,169 4,42126,360 CPG - 2030 Average growth per year 24,870 3.1% 3,251 4.2% 10,786 3.6% 46,851 2.3% MA1_T Average growth per year 23,880 2.9% 3,112 4.0% 10,336 3.5% 45,012 2.2% MA2_T Average growth per year 22,630 2.7% 2,977 3.8% 9,882 3.3% 43,082 2.0% GDP per capita and average income by class

21. Macroeconomic Results Average family consumption by class

22. Macroeconomic Results Average family consumption by class

23. Macroeconomic Results Average family consumption by class

24. GHG Emissions (Mt CO2 eq.) Emission reductions %20102015202020252030 MA1-T0%8%10%6%16% MA2-T0%11%17%21%33%

25. GHG Emission (Mt CO2 eq.)

26. GHG Emission by Sector(Mt CO2 eq.)

28. Some indicators...

29. 2.4 Brazil 2005 Brazil MA2 Brazil MA1 Brazil CPG-2030 Brazil 2010 International Energy Agency - World Energy Outlook 2013

30. Thank You! wwills@lima.coppe.ufrj.br