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14-May-15 1 Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Severe Weather Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Severe Weather Daniel Meléndez NWS S&T Committee.

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Presentation on theme: "14-May-15 1 Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Severe Weather Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Severe Weather Daniel Meléndez NWS S&T Committee."— Presentation transcript:

1 14-May-15 1 Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Severe Weather Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Severe Weather Daniel Meléndez NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

2 14-May-15 2 Outline Team CompositionTeam Composition Vision / BenefitsVision / Benefits Goals / TargetsGoals / Targets Key Information GapsKey Information Gaps Key SolutionsKey Solutions Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs SummarySummary

3 14-May-15 3 Severe Weather Team Composition Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST)Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST) Richard Okulski (NWS/OS)Richard Okulski (NWS/OS) John Weaver (NESDIS)John Weaver (NESDIS) Don Burgess (OAR/NSSL)Don Burgess (OAR/NSSL) Robert Saffle (OST)Robert Saffle (OST) Steve Weiss (SPC)Steve Weiss (SPC) Ron Przybylinski (WFO/STL)Ron Przybylinski (WFO/STL) Dan Smith (SRH)Dan Smith (SRH) Liz Quoetone (WDTB)Liz Quoetone (WDTB) John Ferree (WDTB)John Ferree (WDTB) David Sharp (WFO/MLB)David Sharp (WFO/MLB) Terry Schuur (OAR/NSSL)Terry Schuur (OAR/NSSL) Brian Motta (NWS/OCWWS)Brian Motta (NWS/OCWWS) Bard Zajac (U. No. Co.)Bard Zajac (U. No. Co.)

4 14-May-15 4 Severe Weather Vision / Benefits 2025 Vision Tornado Warning Lead Times Beyond Tornadic Lifetimes (  30 min) at 1-km resolution 2025 Vision Tornado Warning Lead Times Beyond Tornadic Lifetimes (  30 min) at 1-km resolution Save Lives Increased Lead Times Enables Necessary Actions to Minimize Impact of Severe Local Storms Millions in Savings to Transportation & Similar Industries

5 14-May-15 5 Severe Weather Goals/Targets to FY 12 Existing GPRA Performance Measure FY01 Skill FY07 Goal FY12 Target Tornado Warning Lead Time (min) 101418 Tornado Warning POD 68%74%78% Tornado Warning FAR 72%68%64% Other Performance Measure FY01 Skill FY07 Target FY12 Target Severe Thunderstorm Warning Lead Time (min) 161822 Severe Thunderstorm Warning POD 80%83%88% Severe Thunderstorm Warning FAR 44%40%35% On Track Low Risk High Risk

6 14-May-15 6 Severe Weather Goals/Targets to FY 12 Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Plan (S) Performance Measure Current Skill FY07 Goal Target FY12 Target Tornado Warning Lead Time (min) (G) 10141618 Tornado Warning POD (G) 68%74%76%78% Tornado Warning FAR (G) 72%68%68%64% Severe Thunderstorm Warning Lead Time (min) (S) 16181922 Severe Thunderstorm Warning POD (S) 80%83%85%88% Severe Thunderstorm Warning FAR (S) 44%40%38%35% On Track Low Risk High Risk

7 14-May-15 7 Severe Weather Key Information Gaps Higher Resolution and DensityStorm-Scale DataHigher Resolution and Density Storm-Scale Data Improved Specification and Forecasting of Pre-Storm EnvironmentImproved Specification and Forecasting of Pre-Storm Environment Improved Specification and Forecasting of BoundariesImproved Specification and Forecasting of Boundaries Improved Understanding and Specification of Severe Weather SignaturesImproved Understanding and Specification of Severe Weather Signatures Improved VerificationImproved Verification

8 14-May-15 8 GapSolutionImpact Higher Resolution and DensityStorm- Scale Data Higher Resolution and Density Storm- Scale Data Finer/Faster Volume Coverage Patterns (ORPG)Finer/Faster Volume Coverage Patterns (ORPG) Angular resolution (0.5º radials, ORDA)Angular resolution (0.5º radials, ORDA) 1/4km Reflectivity (ORDA)1/4km Reflectivity (ORDA) WSR-88D + TDWR Data IntegrationWSR-88D + TDWR Data Integration Local-Scale Model (3km WRF)Local-Scale Model (3km WRF) MDCRS Data AssimilationMDCRS Data Assimilation Rapid Algorithm Update (ORPG)Rapid Algorithm Update (ORPG) Up to 40% Improvement in DetectionUp to 40% Improvement in Detection Several Minutes Improvement in Lead timeSeveral Minutes Improvement in Lead time Improved Specification and Forecasting of Pre- Storm Environment WSR-88D + TDWR Data IntegrationWSR-88D + TDWR Data Integration Finer/Faster Volume Coverage PatternsFiner/Faster Volume Coverage Patterns Range/Velocity Dealising (ORDA)Range/Velocity Dealising (ORDA) More and Improved Data Assimilation (e.g., MDCRS, 88D Radial Speeds…)More and Improved Data Assimilation (e.g., MDCRS, 88D Radial Speeds…) Modeling (GFS, Hi-Resolution WRF)Modeling (GFS, Hi-Resolution WRF) TrainingTraining Satellite Remote SensingSatellite Remote Sensing Improved Forecast of Long-lived Severe Weather SystemsImproved Forecast of Long-lived Severe Weather Systems Improved PODImproved POD Severe Weather Key S&T Solutions

9 14-May-15 9 GapSolutionImpact Improved Understanding and Specification of Severe Weather Signatures Dual PolarizationDual Polarization Enhanced SCAN (WDSS)Enhanced SCAN (WDSS) Total Lightning DataTotal Lightning Data Improved VerificationImproved Verification Continued R&DContinued R&D Local-Scale ModelingLocal-Scale Modeling “Climatology” of Storms“Climatology” of Storms TrainingTraining Improved FARImproved FAR Improved PODImproved POD Improved Lead TimeImproved Lead Time Improved Adaptive Observational StrategiesImproved Adaptive Observational Strategies Improved Specification and Forecasting of Boundaries WSR-88D + TDWR Data IntegrationWSR-88D + TDWR Data Integration Finer/Faster Volume Coverage PatternsFiner/Faster Volume Coverage Patterns Higher Resolution Satellite Remote SensingHigher Resolution Satellite Remote Sensing Better Sampling of Boundaries Improves PODBetter Sampling of Boundaries Improves POD Storm InitiationStorm Initiation Improved Verification More and Better Trained SpottersMore and Better Trained Spotters Enhanced WFO EffortEnhanced WFO Effort Improved Spotter-WFO CommImproved Spotter-WFO Comm Polygon VerificationPolygon Verification More Accurate Performance DataMore Accurate Performance Data Improved FARImproved FAR Severe Weather Key S&T Solutions

10 14-May-15 10 Severe Weather Key S&T Solutions Current Programmatic Phase 03 04 05060708 09 10 1112 02 *Dual Pol WRF Ensembles Ensembles Deployment OTE DTE R&D Observations DA/Models Satellite Remote Sensing SCAN+ *ORPG/Finer and FasterVCPs/ORDA/TDWR+ Enabling Process *Training PDT Training WES *Severe Weather R&D MDCRS Water Vapor/EDR

11 14-May-15 11 Severe Weather Outstanding R&D Needs Improved Understanding of Tornado FormationImproved Understanding of Tornado Formation Improved Understanding of Severe Weather MeteorologyImproved Understanding of Severe Weather Meteorology Objective VerificationObjective Verification Improved Cloud-Scale ModelsImproved Cloud-Scale Models Improved Situational Awareness Tools and TrainingImproved Situational Awareness Tools and Training Improved Understanding of Total Lightning Data in Severe Weather ForecastingImproved Understanding of Total Lightning Data in Severe Weather Forecasting Improved Understanding of Radar Polarimetry in Severe Weather ForecastingImproved Understanding of Radar Polarimetry in Severe Weather Forecasting Improved Understanding of Predictability LimitsImproved Understanding of Predictability Limits Improved Understanding of Socioeconomic ImpactImproved Understanding of Socioeconomic Impact

12 14-May-15 12 Severe Weather Summary R&D Needs TornadogenesisTornadogenesis R&D on severe weatherR&D on severe weather Objective verification Objective verification Cloud-scale modelsCloud-scale models Situational awareness tools and trainingSituational awareness tools and training R&D on total lightning data and radar polarimetry dataR&D on total lightning data and radar polarimetry data Predictability LimitsPredictability Limits Improved Understanding on Socioeconomic ImpactImproved Understanding on Socioeconomic Impact WSR88D Radar Upgrades TDWR integration WES/Training MDCRS Implement WRF Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques Dual Polarization New Satellite Remote Sensing Enhanced Training Vision Increasing Performance R&D 2007 2012 2020 2002 Tornado Warning Lead Times Beyond Tornadic Lifetimes (  30 min) at 1-km resolution

13 14-May-15 13 Severe Weather Summary Severe weather warning and detection FY07 improvements will be driven by observational (radar) increases in resolution and coverageSevere weather warning and detection FY07 improvements will be driven by observational (radar) increases in resolution and coverage Need continued training and severe weather research as part of threshold progressNeed continued training and severe weather research as part of threshold progress Improved verification is critical to overall progressImproved verification is critical to overall progress FAR is a consequence of verification accuracy so emphasis should be on detectionFAR is a consequence of verification accuracy so emphasis should be on detection Synoptic forecasting models on trackSynoptic forecasting models on track

14 14-May-15 14 BACKGROUND SLIDESBACKGROUND SLIDES Severe Weather

15 14-May-15 15

16 14-May-15 16 WSR-88D Lesson: New technologies temporarily raise POD at the expense of FARWSR-88D Lesson: New technologies temporarily raise POD at the expense of FAR Long-term FAR reduction trails POD increaseLong-term FAR reduction trails POD increase Severe Weather Why FAR May Be at High Risk?

17 14-May-15 17

18 14-May-15 18 Descriptive Statistics: Constant = -131.1915 Coefficient = 0.0708 Rsqr = 0.053 U95 Trend Actual L95 T-value for slope = 0.53 2-tailed t-test 95% CI w/ 5 degrees of freedom = 2.57

19 14-May-15 19 Descriptive Statistics: Constant = 10.0956 Coefficient = -0.0047 Rsqr = 0.127 T-value for slope = -0.85 2-tailed t-test 95% CI w/ 5 degrees of freedom = 2.57 U95 Trend Actual L95

20 14-May-15 20 Descriptive Statistics: Constant = -31.8362 Coefficient =.0163 Rsqr = 0.623 T-value for slope = 2.87 2-tailed t-test 95% CI w/ 5 degrees of freedom = 2.57 U95 Trend Actual L95

21 14-May-15 21

22 14-May-15 22 Vision 2025 – Storm Scale Modeling

23 14-May-15 23 Severe Weather Primary Customers/Partners

24 14-May-15 24 Severe Weather Key Products/Services

25 14-May-15 25 Severe Weather S & T Roadmap (Insert Spreadsheet)(Insert Spreadsheet)

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