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Gabriel Lau Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University Heat Waves and Climate Change.

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Presentation on theme: "Gabriel Lau Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University Heat Waves and Climate Change."— Presentation transcript:

1 Gabriel Lau Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University Heat Waves and Climate Change

2 Midwest Heat Waves Model Observations Surface Temperature Precipitation °C mm/dy

3 Midwest Heat Waves Model Observations 500mb Geopotential Height Sea-level Pressure / Surface Wind mb m

4 ObservationModel 1971-2000 Model 2041-2070 Model Ratio: 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000 Severity (°C)35.239.440.11.0 Duration (days)9.78.612.61.5 Number of Events per year 1.11.02.7 Number of Heat Wave days per year 10.58.634.44.0 Midwest Heat Waves

5 Duration# Events/yr# Heat wave days/yr Midwest1.52.74.0 Northern Plains1.33.84.8 Pacific Northwest1.32.43.0 SE Canada1.22.52.9 Texas-Oklahoma1.82.64.5 Mid-Atlantic1.42.73.8 California1.92.34.3 Gulf Coast1.23.24.0 Southwest2.22.96.4 Wyoming/Montana/ Idaho 2.22.65.7 Model Projections Ratio: 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000

6 Severity ( o C) Duration (days) Frequency (# heat waves per yr) # Heat Wave Days Per Year Central Great Plains Northern Great Plains

7 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coherent Regions of Surface Temperature Variability

8 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Circulation and Precipitation Patterns Accompanying Heat Waves in Region 2 mm d -1

9 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory RCP 4.5RCP 8.5 Observation Model 1979- 2008 Model 2086-2095 Model Ratio: 2086-2095 vs 1979-2008 Model 2086-2095 Model Ratio: 2086-2095 vs 1979-2008 Duration (days)8.412.317.51.426.62.2 Number of Events per year 1.61.43.22.33.62.6 Number of Heat Wave days per year 13.417.055.43.395.95.6 Heat Waves in Region 2

10 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Duration# Events/yr# Heat wave days/yr Region 11.92.03.8 Region 21.42.33.3 Region 32.12.34.8 RCP 4.5 Model Projections Ratio: 2086-2095 vs 1979-2008 Duration# Events/yr# Heat wave days/yr Region 12.72.46.5 Region 22.22.65.7 Region 33.02.47.1 RCP 8.5

11 European Heat Waves Mode 1 Mode 2 Surface Temperature Precipitation mm day -1 oCoC

12 European Heat Waves Mode 1 Mode 2 500 mb Height SLP / Surface Wind mb m

13 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University Thank You


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