1. Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale.edudan.kahan@yale.edu papers,etc: www.culturalcognition.netwww.culturalcognition.net

2. Cultural Cognition, Climate Change, and the Science Communication Problem

3. 1.Two hypotheses 2.The pathology: "Tragedy of the risk perceptions commons” 3.The treatment: Two-Track Communication Climate Change Science and the “Science Communication Problem” a.The public irrationality thesis ("PIT") b. The cultural cognition thesis

4. 1.Two hypotheses 2.The pathology: "Tragedy of the risk perceptions commons” 3.The treatment: Two-Track Communication a.The public irrationality thesis ("PIT") b. The cultural cognition thesis Climate Change Science and the “Science Communication Problem”

5. Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

6. Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality High Sci. litearcy/System 2 Low Sci. litearcy/System 1 “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

7. Lesser Risk Greater Risk Science literacy Numeracy low high perceived risk (z-score) lowhigh PIT prediction actual variance U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

8. 1.Two hypotheses 2.The pathology: "Tragedy of the risk perceptions commons” 3.The treatment: Two-Track Communication a.The public irrationality thesis ("PIT") b. The cultural cognition thesis Climate Change Science and the “Science Communication Problem”

9. Hierarchy Egalitarianism Individualism industry, technology Abortion procedure Cultural Cognition Worldviews Communitarianism compulsory psychiatric treatment Abortion procedure compulsory psychiatric treatment industry, technology Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Guns/Gun Control

10. Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. Cultural Variance

11. Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Cultural Variance Hierarchical Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian

12. Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Egalitarian Communitarian Cultural variance conditional on sci. literacy/numeracy? Hierarchical Individualist

13. Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Egalitarian Communitarian PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute Hierarchical Individualist Scilit/num Scale low high

14. Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. High Sci lit/numeracy Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ Scilit/num Scale low high High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ

15. Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. High Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Scilit/num Scale low high Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ

16. Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. High Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Scilit/num Scale low high

17. 1.Two hypotheses 2.The pathology: “Tragedy of the risk perceptions commons” 3.The treatment: Two-Track Communication a. The public irrationality thesis ("PIT") b. The cultural cognition thesis Individual expressive rationality Collective welfare irrationality Climate Change Science and the “Science Communication Problem”

18. 1.Culturally motivated search & assimilation 2.Cultural source credibility effect 3.Cultural availability effect 4.Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning Mechanisms of cultural cognition Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, 87-91 (2009) Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-174 (2011) Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition. L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010)

19. Culturally Identifiable Experts Source: Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition. L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010). Hierarchy Egalitarianism Communitarianism Individualism

20. 1.Culturally motivated search & assimilation 2.Cultural source credibility effect 3.Cultural availability effect 4.Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning Mechanisms of cultural cognition Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, 87-91 (2009) Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-174 (2011) Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition. L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010)

21. Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-74 (2011).

22. High Risk (science conclusive) Low Risk (science inconclusive) Climate Change

23. Low Risk (safe) High Risk (not safe) Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes

24. High Risk (Increase crime) Low Risk (Decrease Crime) Concealed Carry Laws

25. 1.Culturally motivated search & assimilation 2.Cultural source credibility effect 3.Cultural availability effect 4.Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning Mechanisms of cultural cognition Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, 87-91 (2009) Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-174 (2011) Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition. L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010)

26. Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. High Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Scilit/num Scale low high

27. 1.Culturally motivated search & assimilation 2.Cultural source credibility effect 3.Cultural availability effect 4.Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning Mechanisms of cultural cognition Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, 87-91 (2009) Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-174 (2011) Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition. L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010)

28. 1.Two hypotheses 2.The pathology: "Tragedy of the risk perceptions commons” 3.The treatment: Two-Track Communication a. The public irrationality thesis ("PIT") b. The cultural cognition thesis Individual expressive rationality Collective welfare irrationality Climate Change Science and the “Science Communication Problem”

30. study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

32. Hierarchy Egalitarianism Individualism Climate change Cultural Cognition Worldviews Communitarianism Climate change Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk

33. z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

34. Control Condition

35. z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

36. Anti-pollution Condition

37. z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

38. z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

39. Geoengineering Condition

40. z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

41. z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

42. more polarization less polarization Polarization z_Study dismiss 2 anti-pollution

43. Anti-pollution Condition

44. Geoengineering Condition

45. more polarization less polarization Polarization z_Study dismiss 2 anti-pollution

46. 1.Two hypotheses 2.The pathology: "Tragedy of the risk perceptions commons” 3.The treatment: Two-Track Communication a. The public irrationality thesis ("PIT") b. The cultural cognition thesis Individual expressive rationality Collective welfare irrationality Climate Change Science and the “Science Communication Problem”

47. Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to www.culturalcognition.net!

49. No Argument Balanced Argument Pct. Agree “The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...”

50. No Argument Balanced Argument Pct. Agree “The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...”

51. Culturally Identifiable Experts Source: Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition. L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010). Hierarchy Egalitarianism Communitarianism Individualism

52. No Argument Balanced Argument Pct. Agree “The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...” Expected Argument/Advocate Alignment

53. No Argument Expected Argument/Advocate Alignment Balanced Argument Pct. Agree “The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...” Unexpected Argument/Advocate Alignment

54. No Argument Expected Argument/Advocate Alignment Unexpected Argument/Advocate Alignment Pluralistic Argument Environment Balanced Argument Pct. Agree “The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...”

55. No Argument Expected Argument/Advocate Alignment Unexpected Argument/Advocate Alignment Pluralistic Argument Environment Balanced Argument Pct. Agree “The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...”

57. I.Risk and Cultural Polarization: A Simple Model II.(Two) Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition III.The “Tragedy of the Risk-Perceptions Commons” A. Individual expressive rationality B.Collective welfare irrationality C. A solution? The science communication problem

58. US: Relative “dismissiveness” (HI v. EC)

59. I.Risk and Cultural Polarization: A Simple Model II.(Two) Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition III.The “Tragedy of the Risk-Perceptions Commons” A. Individual expressive rationality B.Collective welfare irrationality C. A solution? The science communication problem

60. Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to www.culturalcognition.net!