1. Assessing Risk of Sexual Re-offenses by Sex Offenders
A Training Program by the
Capital District Coalition for Sex Offender Management
Richard Hamill, Ph.D.
July 12, 2005

2. Comprehensive Approaches to Sex Offender Management
Five critical disciplines:
Investigation (law enforcement, CPS)
Prosecution
Community Supervision (probation, parole)
Treatment (specialized sex offender services)
Victim Advocates

3. Goals for this workshop
Probation Officers will learn to predict more accurately the degree to which a sex offender is likely to commit another sex offense.
When included in the pre-sentence investigation report, the risk assessment provides the judge with critical information, as well as a rationale to support suggested sentences and conditions.

4. Overview of the workshop
1. What we know about sex offenses
2. Types of sex offenders
3. Assessing risk of sexual recidivism
4. Using the Static-99
5. Presenting the Static-99 in reports
6. Questions and answers

5. What we know about child sexual abuse
1. By the time he or she is eighteen years old, one in every 4 girls and one in every 6 or 7 boys has been the victim of a “hands-on” (contact) sex offense.
2. Young children (ages 0 to 5 years old) are the fastest growing class of sexual abuse victim.
3. Sexual abuse often creates significant, even life-long problems for victims and loved ones
4. Multidisciplinary, collaborative approach is required for effective intervention.

6. Not All Sex Offenders Are The Same
Victim preferences
Behavior preferences
Motivation for offending
Attitudes towards deviant behavior
Risk to re-offend
Supervision and treatment needs

7. What we know about sex offenders
1. There are many different types of sex offenders.
2. Each type has a different rate of re-offending,
and prognosis for change.
3. Treatment cuts recidivism by about 50%.
4. If treatment is not provided, sex offender sexual re-offense rates are:
14% convicted of a sexual re-offense within 5 years
20% convicted of a sexual re-offense within 10 years
24% convicted of a sexual re-offense within 15 years

8. Gender (Vermont Probation & Parole, 2003)
98% of known sex offenders
are male

9. Victim’s Age at Time of First Assault Kilpatrick, Edmunds, Seymour (1992). Rape in America.
Age of Victims

10. Relationship Between Victims and Offenders Tjaden & Thoennes (2000)
90% %

11. Degree of Physical Injury Kilpatrick, Edmunds, Seymour (1992)
Degree of Physical Injury Kilpatrick, Edmunds, Seymour (1992). Rape in America.

12. Reporting of Sexual Abuse Kilpatrick et al. (2003)
Reporting of Sexual Abuse Kilpatrick et al. (2003). National Survey of Adolescents.
86% not reported to the authorities
*some cases reported to more than one authority

13. What Are Victim’s Greatest Concerns
What Are Victim’s Greatest Concerns? Kilpatrick, Edmunds, Seymour (1992). Rape in America.

15. Victims and Victimization History Hindman & Peters (2001)

16. Common Childhood Experience of Sex Offenders
Harmful sexual experiences
Poor parent-child attachments
Antisocial parental influences
Physical and emotional abuse
Deviant masturbatory conditioning

17. Crossover Offending ______________________________________
Issues: crossover definitions; order of progression

18. Sexual Re-offense Rates “Official”rates based on Harris & Hanson (2004) “Estimated” rates based on Hanson, Morton, & Harris (2003) 10 samples; n=4,724
Percent
14%
20%
24%
27%
25%
35%
40%
45%
Years in Community

19. Explanations and Preconditions for Sexual Offending Cumming & McGrath (2004); Finkelhor (1984,1986)
Motives Willingness Opportunity
Sexual Interest
Emotional Closeness
Power and Control
Anger/Grievance
Planned -
Opportunistic
Manipulation -
Force
Cognitive Distortions
Substance Abuse
Stress
Psychopathy
Other

20. Motivation for Sexual Offending
1. Need for Power / Control
2. Need for Intimacy
3. Need to Vent Anger
4. Need to Feel Competent
5. Need for Sexual Gratification
6. Curiosity (juvenile sex offenders only)

21. Hanson et al., Meta-Analysis (2002) (15 studies using “current treatments” over 4-5 years)
Percent Recidivism
51%
32%
17%
10%
(41% reduction) (37% reduction)

22. Vermont Incarcerated Programs: Example of Risk/Need Matching
DD/MI Services

23. Vermont Community Programs: Example of Risk/Need Matching
Individualized
Assessment
LSI-R
RRASOR
Static-99
TPS
VASOR
(PCL-R)
(VRAG)

24. Psychophysiological Assessment Methods Community Programs for Male and Female Adults McGrath, Cumming, & Burchard (2003)
Percent of programs

25. Pharmacological Treatment: Programs for Adult Males McGrath, Cumming, & Burchard (2003)
Percent of programs

26. Impact of Aftercare Services Gordon & Packard (1998)
% Recidivism Rate at 5-year Follow-up
25%
15% 8% 2%

27. Sex offender treatment
What we know:
Treatment reduces re-offense rate by 40-60%
Treatment is not effective for all sex offenders
About one-third of sex offenders are NOT motivated to stop committing sex offenses
However, the treatment process does give us much more insight about offender modus operandi, strategies, triggers, level of risk to the community
Some failures also help keep the community safer

28. Unique Aspects of Sex Offender Treatment
Treatment team is the probation/parole officer and the therapist
Unrestricted Release of Information for probation/parole officer and therapist
Immediate notification of P.O. if offender shifts into elevated risk of re-offending
Goal: Incapacitate before re-offense (VOP, rehab program)

29. Three components of treatment
(1) Relapse Prevention model
sexual offending similar to an addiction
stress “abstinence,” not “cure”
cognitive-behavioral: focuses on feelings, beliefs (cognitive distortions), stimuli and behaviors
identify triggers for elevated risk, details of offense cycle, effective safety plan
enhance empathy for victims
enhance motivation for remaining abstinent

30. Treatment of sex offenders
(2) Life skills development
anger-management skills (esp. rapists)
relationship-building / intimacy skills
skills for living with SORA, the s.o. label
vocational skills
communication skills
assertiveness training
communication of feelings

31. Treatment of sex offenders
(3) Resolution of the effects of one’s own abuse / neglect
personal histories characterized by
childhood sexual abuse (especially preferential sex offenders),
physical abuse (especially rapists, use- of-force sex offenders)
exposure to domestic violence (especially rapists),
Neglect / chaotic family system

32. Summary Community safety depends on:
successful law enforcement investigation
effective prosecution
effective correctional system programs
community supervision using strategies specific to sex offenders
community-based sex offender treatment
keeping awareness of impact on the victim

33. What we know about sex offenders

34. TYPES OF SEX OFFENSES Three clusters of sex offenses:
Contact, use of force (rape)
Contact, use of non-force strategies (molestation)
Non-contact offenses (exposing, voyeurism, obscene phone calls, sexual harassment)

35. Types of rapists Rapists (Prentky and Knight typology)
Prognosis
1. Opportunistic fair-good
2. Pervasively angry fair
3. Sexualized poor-fair
4. Vindictive fair

36. Types of child molesters (F.B.I. Behavioral Sciences typology)
Situational Prognosis
1. Compensating very good
2. Psychopaths poor
3. Normalized fair-good
4. Sexualized poor-fair
Preferential
- 1. Seductive fair
- 2. Inadequate poor-fair
- 3. Sadistic poor

37. Types of rapists (Use of Force)
Four types based on motivation:
(1) Opportunistic type:
Take advantage of opportunities open to them.
Typically, self-centered, risk-takers.
Prognosis: fair-to-good
(2) Pervasively angry type:
Rape is strategy to vent pent-up anger
History of other anger-motivated crimes
Prognosis: fair-to-poor

38. Types of rapists (3) Sexual type
Rape is committed as way of meeting sexual needs
Person has sexual attraction to rape
Two sub-types: Sadistic and Non-sadistic
Sadistic offenses: usually longer duration, often include extensive threats designed to create fear; physical incapacitation, infliction of pain
Non-sadistic rapes: Force is used as strategy to accomplish the rape
Prognosis is poor-to-fair. Work to incarcerate.

39. Types of rapists (4) Vindictive type
Rape victim is person toward whom they feel anger
Rape is punishment, or attempt to re-establish sense of personal power or control
Typical victims: partners, former partners
Prognosis: fair

40. Types of Child Molesters
Based on the work of Ken Lanning (F.B.I. Behavioral Sciences unit)
Two large clusters of child molesters:
Situational (non-fixated)
Preferential (fixated)

41. Situational child molesters
Four types of situational child molesters:
(1) Compensating (regressed) type
primarily intra-familial victims (incest)
exploit their authority as parents and/or adults
use non-violent strategies, like seduction
generally have a good response to treatment

42. Situational child molesters
(2) Psychopaths
0.5% of the population; 5% of child molesters
“without conscience”
victims chosen by availability, vulnerability
strategies: luring, manipulation; may use force
respond poorly to treatment, require incarceration

43. Situational child molesters
Normalized type
life-long pattern, inter-generational
almost 100% are victims of childhood sexual abuse
sexual offending is an almost continuous pattern
victims are often family and friends
fair response to treatment

44. Situational child molesters
Sexualized type
multiple paraphilias present
wide range of sexual behavior
victims based on availability
motivation is to offset boredom
strategy: abuse embedded into an on-going activity
treatment is difficult; fair-to-poor prognosis

45. Preferential child molesters
Have a strong sexual preference for children
These “fixated” child molesters are considered stuck at a young stage in their own sexual development
Pedophiles: strong sexual preference for children under the age of puberty
Hebephiles: strong sexual preference for children at or just above onset of puberty

46. Preferential child molesters
Three types identified:
(1) Seductive type
very child-oriented; highly identified with children
use of non-violent strategies, like seduction
strong age and gender preferences
50% prefer boys, 25% prefer girls, 25% both
treatment is difficult; prognosis is poor

47. Preferential child molesters
Inadequate type
two subtypes: psychiatric condition, mental deficiency
often socially isolated w/ poor social skills
impulse control often poor
victim choice often indiscriminant
offenses are sexual only, often non-verbal
prognosis is limited; medication helps

48. Preferential child molesters
Sadistic type
strong arousal to inflicting pain
strong age and gender preferences
strategies include rape, kidnapping, murder
concurrent psychiatric problems
treatment prognosis is very poor, risk level very high. Work to incarcerate.

49. Stage model for molestation
Five stages:
1. Engagement: “grooming” behaviors
2. Sexual interaction: progression along the continuum to more intrusive acts
3. Secrecy strategies
4. Disclosure: Accidental or purposeful
5. Retraction
(by Suzanne Sgroi, M.D.)

50. Juvenile sex offenders
Include all of the above types, as well as:
Curiosity-motivated
young juveniles
usually awkward, naïve
motivation is to satisfy curiosity about sex
severity of abuse may escalate over time
good response to treatment, especially if parents are willing to become involved

51. Female sex offenders
Make up about 7-8% of all convicted sex offenders, thought to be under-represented due to differential reporting and prosecution.
Four types identified:
Normalized
Male – coerced victim / offender
Inadequate
Lover / teacher seductive (preferential)

52. Female sex offenders Normalized type
life-long pattern of sexual acting out
family and friends are most likely victims
almost all are victims of childhood sexual abuse
difficult to treat successfully

53. Female sex offenders Male-coerced victim - offender
sex is coerced by male partner, at least initially
woman seen as both victim and offender
victims are those imposed by male perpetrator
treatment prognosis is good

54. Female sex offenders Inadequate type
often mentally disordered or mentally delayed
poor coping skills, poor social skills
alcohol abuse/dependence over-represented
victims are often family members
prognosis is fair; medication helps

55. Female sex offenders Lover / teacher seductive type
usually child-oriented, identified with the child
age and gender preferences
strategies: seduction and teaching
may include preferential-type sex offenders (pedophiles, hebephiles)

56. Non-contact sex offenders
Includes exposing, voyeurs (“Peeping Toms”), sexual harassment, obscene phone calls, etc.. (Paraphilic behaviors)
If an individual is engaging in one of these activities, there is an 88% likelihood that he is also engaging in at least one other paraphilic behavior.
Polygraph studies show that many of these offenders also have contact sex offenses.

57. Evaluation of sex offenders
Aspects of a specialized sex offender eval
(1) Review of background documentation, including victim statements
(2) Interviews of offender
(3) Interviews of collateral sources
(4) Psychological testing
Self-report tests
Actuarial tests

58. Evaluation of sex offenders
(5) Testing of sexual interests
Penile plethysmograph
Viewing time measures
(6) Polygraph testing:
Instant offense polygraph
History of sexual offending polygraph
Compliance with Conditions of Probation/Parole

59. Evaluation of sex offenders
Risk Assessment
Several measures found to do a fairly good job in predicting:
risk of sexual re-offense (Static-99, RRASOR)
risk of general re-offense (LSI)
risk of violent re-offense (VRAG)

60. “Predicting things is difficult, especially when they’re in the future
“Predicting things is difficult, especially when they’re in the future.” Yogi Berra

61. ATSA Guidelines (2005)
18.07
Members conducting risk assessments use an actuarial risk assessment instrument that is appropriate for the client population being evaluated (p. 16).

62. Risk Instruments in Programs for Adult Males McGrath, Cumming, & Burchard (2003)
381 of 613 programs (62.1%) use one or more of these instruments
20.7% % % % %

63. Risk Principle 2-Year Sexual or Violent Re-Convictions Friendship, Mann, & Beech (2003)
Percent
Static-99 Risk Category

64. Types of Risk Assessment Strategies
Intuitive
Clinical
Actuarial
Adjusted Actuarial

65. Advantages of Actuarial Approach
Objectivity
Uniformity
Consistency
Equality
mcgrath

66. Static Predictors of Sexual Recidivism (Hanson & Bussiere, 1998; Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004)

67. Risk Prediction Methods for Adults
Predictive Validity by Offense Type

68. Static-99 Hanson & Thornton (1999)
Prior Sex Offenses*
Prior Sentencing Dates
Non-Contact Offenses
Index Non-sexual Violence
Prior Non-sexual Violence
Unrelated Victim*
Stranger Victim
Male Victim*
Young*
Single
*Items on RRASOR

69. Static-99 Hanson & Thornton (1999)
Percent Sexual Recidivism
Score (% of Sample)

70. Static-99 Sexual Recidivism Percentages

71. Dynamic Predictors of Sexual Recidivism (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004)

72. Dynamic Predictors of Sexual Recidivism (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004)

73. Static - 99
Purpose: To estimate the probability of sexual and violent recidivism.
Who do I use it on:
ADULT MALE offenders who have been convicted of at least one sex offense against a child or adult.
Who should I NOT use it on?
Youth (under eighteen years old at time of release)
Females
Offenders convicted of possession/dissemination of child pornography
Offenses related to prostitution (soliciting, pimping)

74. Item 1: Prior sex offense convictions / charges
To be considered a sex offense, the crime does not need to be sex offense per se.
Examples:
Unlawful Imprisonment (kidnapping), if the
intent was to commit a rape,
Burglary, if the intent was to steal underwear or other fetish items
Criminal Trespassing, if the intent was voyeuristic (Peeping Tom) activity

75. Item 1: Prior sex offense convictions / charges
Sexual Misbehavior is divided into two categories:
Category A includes sexual behavior with minors or non-consenting adults
Category B includes sexual behavior that is illegal, but:
(1) the parties are consenting (e.g., consensual sex in public place) OR
(2) there is no specific victim involved (e.g., possession of child pornography, failure to register as a sex offender).

76. Item 1: Prior sex offense convictions / charges
The “Index offense” is the most recent sex offense (charge or conviction)
For sex offenses to be counted separately, the second offense must have been committed after the offender was charged with the first offense
Historical offenses detected after conviction are not counted as prior offenses

77. Item 1: Prior sex offense convictions / charges
Score is based on either the number of convictions or number of charges stemming from sexual misbehavior, whichever is higher
None
1 conviction / 1-2 charges 1
2-3 convictions / 3-5 charges 2
4+ convictions / 6+ charges 3

78. Item 2: Prior sentencing dates
Count the number of distinct occasions that the offender has been sentenced for any criminal offense.
Index offense is not counted.
Violations are not counted – only misdemeanor or felony (criminal) offenses
Scoring
3 or fewer 0
4 or more 1

79. Item 3: Any convictions for non-contact sex offenses
Includes convictions for non-contact sex offenses such as: exhibitionism (exposing), obscene phone calls, possession of child pornography, voyeuristic acts, fetish burglary
Count convictions only, not charges
Scoring:
None 0
One or more 1

80. Item 4: Index offense – any non-sexual violence
Convictions for violent acts which occurred in the commission of the index offense (e.g., Assault, conviction stemming from use of a weapon).
Scoring:
No 0
Yes 1

81. Item 5: Prior non-sexual violence
Any conviction stemming from a violent act, prior to the index offense
Scoring:
No 0
Yes 1

82. Item 6: Any unrelated victim
A related victim is one where the relationship would be sufficiently close that marriage would normally be prohibited (e.g., parent, uncle, grandparent, step-sister)
Spouses (inc. common-law) are related
Step-relationships less than 2 years are considered unrelated.
Scoring:
No 0
Any unrelated victim 1

83. Item 7: Any stranger victim
A victim is considered a stranger if the victim did not know the offender 24 hours before the offense.
Scoring:
No 0
Any stranger victim 1

84. Item 8: Any male victim
Include any sex offense involving a male victim
Do NOT count possession of child pornography
Do NOT count exposing to mixed groups of children UNLESS there is evidence that the offender was targeting boys.
Scoring:
No 0
Any male victim 1

85. Item 9: Young
Refers to sex offender’s age at the time of the risk assessment.
Note that Static-99 applies only to sex offenders who are over 18 years old at the time they are being rated.
Scoring:
Age 25 or older 0
Age 18 to years 1

86. Item 10: Single
Offender is considered single if he has never lived with an adult lover for more than two years.
Cohabitation must be continuous, with the same person.
Person must have had the opportunity to live with a lover.
Male lovers in prison do not count.
Scoring:
Yes 0
No 1

87. Translating Static-99 score into risk categories
Risk Level Score
at 10 years yrs yrs yrs
Low % 11% 13%
1 6% 7% 7%
Low-moderate % 13% 16%
3 12% 14% 19%
High-moderate % 31% 36%
5 33% 38% 40%
High % 45% 52%

88. Reporting the Static-99 Score
John scored a “3,” so is at low-moderate risk.
You CANNOT report that he has a risk of
re-offending of 12 percent at five years,
14 percent at ten years, and 19 percent at 15 years.

89. Reporting the Static-99 Score
You CAN write:
“John scored a “3” on the Static-99, which places him in the low-moderate risk category. Of the sex offenders with this score, some 12 percent were re-convicted for a sex offense within 5 years, 14 percent were re-convicted of a sex offense within ten years, and a total of 19 percent were re-convicted of a sex offense within fifteen years.”

90. Sexual Re-offense Rates “Official”rates based on Harris & Hanson (2004) “Estimated” rates based on Hanson, Morton, & Harris (2003) 10 samples; n=4,724
Percent
14%
20%
24%
27%
25%
35%
40%
45%
Years in Community

91. Reporting the Static-99 Score
You can add:
“The research suggests that the actual re-offense rate is about fifteen percent higher than the re-conviction rate by the ten year mark. This suggests that, for sex offenders with this score, approximately 29 percent have committed another sex offense within ten years.”

93. For further assistance:
Contact the Capital District Coalition for Sex Offender Management, at:
CDCSOM.com
(518)
or the Canadian website, at:
Click: English
Click: Corrections
Click: Publications