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Transitions in the Canadian Market James Rea AVP Bulk Product Sales American Fats & Oils Association Annual Meeting 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Transitions in the Canadian Market James Rea AVP Bulk Product Sales American Fats & Oils Association Annual Meeting 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Transitions in the Canadian Market James Rea AVP Bulk Product Sales American Fats & Oils Association Annual Meeting 2012

2 Agenda Major Transitions Deregulation of the Canadian Wheat Board Rationalization of Origination Assets/Players Canola and the Expansion of the Canola Processing Industry Acreage – Crops and Returns

3 Deregulation Deregulation of the Market Canadian Wheat Board monopoly ends after 77 years (1935-2012) Open Market as of August 1, 2012 Canadian Wheat Board’s Participation Going Forward? Wheat/Barley account for 37 MMT or ~50% of Cdn Grain/Oilseed production

4 Rationalization - Grain Handling Capacity Western Canada Dramatic increase in handling and loading efficiency over 2 decades

5 Rationalization of Major Asset Owners Saskatchewan Wheat Pool 1923-2007 Manitoba Pool Elevators 1926-1998 Alberta Wheat Pool 1923-1998 United Grain Growers Limited 1917-2001 Richardson International 1857- Cargill 1865- Agricore Cooperative Limited 1998-2001 Agricore United 2001-2007 Viterra 2007-2012 Cargill 1865- Glencore 1974- 1998200120072012 United Grain Growers Limited 1917-2001 Cargill 1865- Today Cargill 1865- Richardson International 1857- Richardson International 1857- Richardson International 1857- Saskatchewan Wheat Pool 1923-2007 Cargill 1865- Saskatchewan Wheat Pool 1923-2007 Richardson International 1857-

6 Rationalization - Country Elevators Pre-Glencore Capacity Distribution

7 Rationalization - Country Elevators Post-Glencore Capacity Distribution

8 Crush and the Canola S&D Crop Year 2008/092009/102010/112011/122012/13 Acreage Seeded16,16016,12517,60818,64521,337 Acreage Harvested16,04815,68016,92218,01020,852 Yield (Bu/Acre)3536.233.335.528.2 Carry In 1,7441,9442,6882,198793 Production 12,64312,88812,77314,500 13,336 Imports 120.5127.9223.792100 Supply 14,50714,95915,68516,79014,230 Domestic 4,2804,7886,3107,0006,500 Seed/Feed 37732073268300 Exports 7,9077,1637,1048,7296430 Disposition 12,56412,27113,48715,99713,232 Carryout 1,9442,6882,1987931,000 Stocks/use 15.47%21.91%16.30%4.96%4.06% Final production not yet known

9 Canola Crush Capacity (MMT) Canada/U.S. North - Approx

10 Canadian Crush and Oil Production

11 CANOLA OIL EXPORTS

12 Growth in Canadian Canola Acres Expecting canola acres to remain in the 19-21 million range for the next 3-5 yrs

13 Acreage Shift 2004 - 2012 000’s Acres

14 Return Per Acre

15 Summary 2012/13 – Canadian Open Market Volumes Increase Dramatically Grain and Oilseed handling in Canada has been extensively rationalized over the past 20 years Strong Oil Demand Driving Investments in Canola Processing Canadian Canola acres have doubled in the past 10 years as Farm-gate returns advance Canola seed production


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