1. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 A Sample Presentation of The State of the Church in Northern California and the Bay Area, Sacramento and Central Valley Metro Areas 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use2 The first 20 slides are from the “State of the Church in Northern California” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/NCA0.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/NCA0.htm

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use3 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use4 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “ How Many People Really Attend Church in Northern California Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Northern California?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Northern California will begin to take shape.

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use5 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Northern California has an average church attendance percentage (12.3%) much lower than the national average (18.7%). California’s average is 14.8%.

6. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use6

7. 7 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Northern California.

8. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use8 Northern California Counties 2000 Christian Church Attendance as a Percentage of Population 2000 Beige = Highest Rose = Middle Blue = Lowest 0.0% Alpine 6.7% Calaveras 6.8% Modoc 7.0% Mono 7.1% Marin 7.7% Sonoma 7.9% Lassen 8.2% Trinity 9.3% Mendocino 9.6% Amador 9.7% San Mateo 9.8% Lake 10.0% Plumas 10.0% San Francisco 10.1% Madera 10.2% Yuba 10.4% San Joaquin 10.7% El Dorado 10.8% Shasta 10.8% Yolo 10.9% Butte 11.2% Humboldt 11.3% Tehama 11.4% Kings 11.5% Santa Clara 11.7% Colusa 12.0% Mariposa 12.3% Del Norte 12.5% Merced 12.5% Tulare 12.6% Santa Cruz 12.9% Tuolumne 12.9% Napa 13.0% Alameda 13.0% Contra Costa 13.4% Sutter 13.6% Stanislaus 13.7% Siskiyou 14.1% Solano 14.2% Nevada 14.5% Fresno 14.7% Placer 15.1% Monterey 15.2% Sacramento 15.4% Glenn 16.4% Inyo 16.6% Sierra 21.2% San Benito 0.0% to 10.8% 10.8% to 13.7% 13.7% to 22.2%

9. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use9 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Northern California. The first map shows the population size of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000.

10. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use10 Northern California Counties 2000 Population 1,208 Alpine 3,555 Sierra 9,449 Modoc 12,853 Mono 13,022 Trinity 17,130 Mariposa 17,945 Inyo 18,804 Colusa 20,824 Plumas 26,453 Glenn 27,507 Del Norte 33,828 Lassen 35,100 Amador 40,554 Calaveras 44,301 Siskiyou 53,234 San Benito 54,501 Tuolumne 56,039 Tehama 58,309 Lake 60,219 Yuba 78,930 Sutter 86,265 Mendocino 92,033 Nevada 123,109 Madera 124,279 Napa 126,518 Humboldt 129,461 Kings 156,299 El Dorado 163,256 Shasta 168,660 Yolo 203,171 Butte 210,554 Merced 247,289 Marin 248,399 Placer 255,602 Santa Cruz 368,021 Tulare 394,542 Solano 401,762 Monterey 446,997 Stanislaus 458,614 Sonoma 563,598 San Joaquin 707,161 San Mateo 776,733 San Francisco 799,407 Fresno 948,816 Contra Costa 1,223,499 Sacramento 1,443,741 Alameda 1,682,585 Santa Clara 0 to 100,000 100,000 to 500,000 500,000 to 2,000,000

11. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use11 Northern California Counties 1990 - 2000 Population Decline or Increase (336) Inyo (229) Modoc (41) Trinity 95 Alpine 237 Sierra 770 Siskiyou 1,085 Plumas 1,655 Glenn 1,991 Yuba 2,529 Colusa 2,828 Mariposa 2,897 Mono 4,047 Del Norte 5,061 Amador 5,920 Mendocino 6,045 Tuolumne 6,230 Lassen 6,414 Tehama 7,400 Humboldt 7,678 Lake 8,556 Calaveras 13,514 Napa 13,523 Nevada 14,515 Sutter 16,220 Shasta 16,537 San Benito 17,193 Marin 21,051 Butte 25,868 Santa Cruz 27,568 Yolo 27,992 Kings 30,304 El Dorado 32,151 Merced 35,019 Madera 46,102 Monterey 52,774 San Francisco 54,121 Solano 56,100 Tulare 57,538 San Mateo 70,392 Sonoma 75,603 Placer 76,475 Stanislaus 82,970 San Joaquin 131,917 Fresno 145,084 Contra Costa 164,559 Alameda 182,280 Sacramento 185,008 Santa Clara (336) to 0 0 to 50,000 50,000 to 656,175

12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use12 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Northern California in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals and Catholics have increased in attendance over the last decade, while Mainline churches have decreased. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has declined, the population has grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph reflects a significant decrease in the percentage of the population attending all types of churches.

13. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use13

14. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use14

15. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use15 The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 9 major denominational groups in Northern California. The Catholic church is smaller in Northern California than in Southern California. The second and third charts show the significant decline of all denominations in Northern California, with the exception of the Three Sisters churches. (The 3 Sisters are 3 similar evangelical denominations originally from Sweden, the Baptist General Conference, the Evangelical Free Church and the Evangelical Covenant Church.)

16. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use16

17. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use17 The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Northern California in 2000.

18. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use18 Northern California Counties 2000 Evangelical Church Attendance as a Percentage of Population 2000 Beige = Highest Rose = Middle Blue = Lowest Alpine 1.9% Marin 2.5% San Benito 2.5% San Mateo 3.1% Sonoma 3.1% Plumas 3.3% San Francisco 3.6% Colusa 3.9% Monterey 4.0% Mono 4.0% Modoc 4.1% Yolo 4.2% San Joaquin 4.2% Santa Clara 4.2% Mendocino 4.3% Calaveras 4.5% Mariposa 4.9% Lake 4.9% Trinity 5.3% Santa Cruz 5.4% Amador 5.5% El Dorado 5.5% Sierra 5.6% Contra Costa 5.8% Madera 5.8% Solano 5.8% Tulare 5.8% Merced 5.9% Alameda 5.9% Kings 6.0% Humboldt 6.1% Glenn 6.1% Tehama 6.1% Lassen 6.2% Yuba 6.8% Butte 7.1% Siskiyou 7.1% Stanislaus 7.3% Shasta 7.4% Inyo 7.9% Del Norte 8.2% Napa 8.4% Fresno 8.8% Sacramento 9.0% Nevada 9.1% Sutter 9.2% Placer 9.6% Tuolumne 0.0% to 5.3% 5.3% to 6.3% 6.3% to 10.6% No data

19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use19 The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Northern California between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 19 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 28 counties declined. For Mainline churches, 8 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 39 counties declined. For Catholics, 27 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 20 counties declined.

20. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use20 Alpine -60.5% Mono -45.4% Modoc -43.8% Merced -38.6% Del Norte -38.5% Mariposa -37.6% Colusa -34.4% Calaveras -32.1% Tehama -31.5% Mendocino -27.7% Lassen -26.5% Kings -26.3% Amador -24.4% Stanislaus -24.4% Santa Cruz -24.1% Placer -23.8% Napa -23.8% Sutter -23.7% Monterey -22.9% San Joaquin -20.8% Humboldt -20.8% Sacramento -20.8% Alameda -19.5% Lake -19.3% Fresno -18.0% Plumas -17.8% San Francisco -16.7% Sonoma -16.5% Contra Costa -16.4% Yuba -15.3% San Mateo -13.4% El Dorado -12.9% Santa Clara -12.2% Yolo -10.6% Tulare -10.0% Tuolumne -8.6% Glenn -6.7% Marin -2.4% Inyo -2.0% Nevada 1.4% Butte 7.5% Trinity 8.3% Siskiyou 14.4% Madera 18.2% Solano 29.2% Shasta 36.0% Sierra 39.1% San Benito Decline Growth No data Northern California Counties 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in Mainline Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Increase

21. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use21 The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in Northern California in the past decade. There was a net gain of 334 churches. However, to keep up with the population growth in Northern California, there would have needed to have been a net gain of 1179 churches from 1990 - 2000.

22. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use22

23. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use23 The Complete Northern California Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/NCA0.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/NCA0.htm

24. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use24 The next 12 slides are from the “State of the Church in the Bay Area” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 49 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/BayArea.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/BayArea.htm

25. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use25 The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of the Bay Area in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

26. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use26

27. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use27

28. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use28 The Next Map shows the attendance numbers of churches in the Bay Area for 1990 and 2000. There has been slow growth for Evangelical and Catholic churches and slow decline for Mainline churches. However, as the population has grown, a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

29. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use29

30. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use30

31. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use31

32. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use32

33. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use33 The First Factor to evaluate is the Percentage of the Population that attends a worship service on any given weekend. The first map shows the 2000 percentage of attendance for all orthodox Christian churches in each county.

34. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use34 The Bay Area Metro Area Percentage of Population Attending Worship On Any Given Weekend Beige = Higher Rose = Middle Blue = Lower 7.1% Marin 7.7% Sonoma 10.0% San Francisco 11.5% Santa Clara 9.7% San Mateo 13.0% Alameda 12.6% Santa Cruz 14.1% Solano 12.9% Napa 13.0% Contra Costa

35. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use35 The Next Map shows the 2000 growth or decline in the percentage of the population that attends a worship service on any given weekend for all Mainline churches.

36. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use36 Growth or Decline in Percentage of Population Attending Mainline Churches On Any Given Weekend The Bay Area Metro Area Rose = Higher Blue = Lower -6.7% Marin -16.7% Sonoma -17.8% San Francisco -12.9% Santa Clara -15.3% San Mateo -20.8% Alameda -24.4% Santa Cruz 21.1% Solano -23.8% Napa -16.5% Contra Costa

37. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use37 The Complete Bay Area Powerpoint is 49 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/BayArea.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

38. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use38 The next 10 slides are from the “State of the Church in Sacramento ” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 46 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Sacramento.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Sacramento.htm

39. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use39 The Next Map shows the attendance numbers of churches in the Sacramento Metro Area for 1990 and 2000. There has been growth for Evangelical and Catholic churches and slow decline for Mainline churches. However, as the population has grown, a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

40. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use40

41. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use41

42. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use42

43. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use43

44. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use44

45. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use45 The First Factor to evaluate is the Percentage of the Population that attends a worship service on any given weekend. The first map shows the 2000 percentage for all orthodox Christian churches in each county.

46. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use46 The Sacramento Metro Area Percentage of Population Attending Worship On Any Given Weekend Beige = Higher Rose = Middle Blue = Lower 10.8% Yolo 10.7% El Dorado 15.2% Sacramento 14.7% Placer

47. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use47 The Next Map shows the 2000 growth or decline in the percentage of the population that attends a worship service on any given weekend for all Evangelical churches. The Sacramento area has fourth highest growth rate out of the largest 55 metropolitan areas in the percentage of the population attending an Evangelical church on any given weekend.

48. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use48 Growth or Decline in Percentage of Population Attending Evangelical Churches On Any Given Weekend The Sacramento Metro Area Rose = Higher Blue = Lower -10.4% Yolo 64.6% El Dorado 8.8% Sacramento 60.0% Placer

49. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use49 The Complete Sacramento Powerpoint is 49 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Sacramento.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

50. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use50 The next 10 slides are from the “State of the Church in Central Valley ” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/CentralValley.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/CentralValley.htm

51. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use51 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in the valley. The Central Valley is made up of the counties of Fresno, Kern, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus and Tulare.

52. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use52 Central Valley 2000 Christian Church Attendance as a Percentage of Population 2000 Beige = Highest Rose = Middle Blue = Lowest 0.0% to 10.8% 10.8% to 13.7% 13.7% to 22.2% 10.1% Madera 10.4% San Joaquin 12.5% Merced 12.5% Tulare 13.6% Stanislaus 14.5% Fresno 14.8% Kern

53. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use53 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Central Valley in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the growth of the Evangelical and Catholic churches and the slight decline of Mainline churches. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has remained quite stable, the population has grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. All three groups are declining in percentage of the population attending.

54. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use54

55. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use55

56. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use56

57. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use57 The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in the Central Valley between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, one county grew in attendance percentage, while 6 counties declined. For mainline churches, one county grew in attendance percentage, while 6 counties declined. For Catholics, 3 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 4 counties declined.

58. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use58 Central County 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in All Evangelical Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Increase -14.3% Madera -5.6% San Joaquin -16.5% Merced -16.6% Tulare 31.3% Stanislaus -5.4% Fresno -2.8% Kern

59. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use59 The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in the Central Valley in the past decade. There was a net gain of 81 churches. A net gain of 410 churches was needed to keep up with population growth in the Central Valley from 1990 - 2000.

60. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use60

61. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use61 The Complete Central Valley Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/CentralValley.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/CentralValley.htm

62. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use62 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 200,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for over 300,000 orthodox Christian churches. 1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

63. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use63 For More Information... Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.www.theamericanchurch.org 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm The complete Northern California Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/NCA0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/NCA0.htm The Complete Bay Area Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/BayArea.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/BayArea.htm The Complete Sacramento Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Sacramento.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Sacramento.htm The Complete Central Valley Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/CentralValley.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/CentralValley.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Northern California, Bay Area, Sacramento & Central Valley Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/NCA0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/NCA0.htm