1. Combining risk perception and risk attitude: Integrating quantitative and qualitative methods for building a comprehensive individual risk behaviour model Trento, 21 st October 2010 Workshop Risk Elicitation and Stated Preference Methods for Climate Change Research Frankwin van Winsen, Erwin Wauters, Ludwig Lauwers, Steven Van Passel Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research Social Sciences Unit www.ilvo.vlaanderen.be Agriculture and Fisheries Policy Area

2. Overview of the presentation Risk paradigms Risk and agriculture Research on individual risk behaviour –Risk attitude –Risk perception First Conclusions A basic model for individual risk behaviour Building further on the model (participatory approach) Discussion & Questions 2

3. Risk paradigms Risk is about uncertainty and consequences Different views on risk –Constructivism and Risk: Risk is a social construct inseparable from social and cultural processes. –Real Risk, risk is objectively measurable –Subjective interpretation, risk is objectively measurable however personal interpretation 3

4. Risk and agriculture 4 Climate –Caused by: storms, hail, rain, floods, droughts, diseases –Effects: Yield risks and price risk Policy –Regulation –Cap transforms Market –Internationalisation of markets –Increased price volatility: both input as output prices

5. Research on risk behaviour Most common determinant on individual risk behaviour is risk attitude: 5 Most measures derived from expected utility: Risk Attitude Relative Risk Attitude Perceived Risk Attitude

6. Research on risk behaviour Most common determinant on individual risk behaviour is risk attitude: –Attitude derived from gamble experiments –Attitude seen as stable personality trait –No determinants for risk behaviour other than attitude –Behaviour optimalization given risk attitude However –Risk attitude is context specific –Risk perception should be taken into account –Risk attitude is manegable and should be optimalised given a wanted behaviour –Integrated model by Pablo and Sitkin 6 Current research on perception: Psychometric Paradigm Cultural Theory Social Amplification of risk Important message: Risk perception is influenced by more than just an imperfect knowledge transfer from real risk information

7. Some conclusions When investigating individual risk behaviour: –See risk attitude as a context specific and a manageable trait in order to optimalize behaviour –Take risk perception influenced by social and cultural determinants into account together with risk attitude. 7

8. An example A day at the horse races: –Observation: Gamblers that lose during the day in the end of the day start betting on long shots. –Explanation: Not risk attitude changes but the perception of the gamblers on who the winning horses are. Feedbacks: –To: Attitude and Perception –To: knowledge on the real risk –Risk management 8

9. Mental Model A basic individual risk behaviour model 9 Information transfer of real risk Perceived Risk Real Risk Perceived risk more than information transfer of the real risk: Social and cultural factors Personality / Motivation Habbits Perceived Behavioural Control

10. A basic individual risk behaviour model 10 Risk Management Change in MM Newly learned Information about the real risk Real Risk Perceived Risk Risk Attitude Mental Model Risk Behaviour Risk Outcome

11. Building further on the model Research is needed to build on this model: –Using a participatory approach actively involving farmers in building on the model –Integrating qualitative and quantitative research 11

12. Thank you for your attention! Trento, 21 st October 2010 Workshop Risk Elicitation and Stated Preference Methods for Climate Change Research Frankwin van Winsen (frankwin.vanwinsen@ilvo.vlaanderen.be)frankwin.vanwinsen@ilvo.vlaanderen.be Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research Social SciencesUnit www.ilvo.vlaanderen.be Agriculture and Fisheries Policy Area