1. 1 Gary Stanley Manufacturing Technology Division AFRL/RXMT Phone # 937-904-4398 gary.stanley@wpafb.af.mil Manufacturing Readiness Assessment Acquisition Training Public Release Case # 88ABW-2008-0329

2. 2 Defense Policy Insertion Plans: Policy Targets DoD documents 1) Defense Acquisition Guidebook 2) DoDI 5000.2 3) DoDD 5000.1 Air Force documents –AFI 63-1201, “Disciplined Systems Engineering” –Secy of the Air Force for Acquisition Policy Memo –AFRL Advanced Technology Demonstrations Program Baseline Development AFMC Instruction 61-102, ATD Tech Transition Planning

3. 3 What Will The Policy Look Like? MRLs are linked very closely with TRLs MRAs will be performed prior to each Milestone Decision –M/S A – MRL 4 –M/S B – MRL 6 –M/S C – MRL 8 –Full Rate Production – MRL 9 MRL 1 Basic mfg implications identified MRL 2 Mfg concepts identified MRL 3 Mfg proof of concept developed MRL 4 Capability to produce the technology in a laboratory environment MRL 5 Capability to produce prototype components in a production relevant environment MRL 6 Capability to produce a prototype system or subsystem in a production relevant environment MRL 7 Capability to produce systems, subsystems or components in a production representative environment MRL 8 Pilot line capability demonstrated. Ready to begin low rate production MRL 9 Low rate production demonstrated. Capability in place to begin full rate production MRL 10 Full rate production demonstrated and lean production practices in place A B C

4. 4 PRR and MRA The areas evaluated in a PRR and MRA process are nearly the same Major differences –Timing - PRRs usually occur in the SDD phase versus MRAs that occur throughout the Acquisition and S&T Phases –PRR will evaluate the total program's readiness to proceed into production vs MRA focusing on MRL ratings and MMPs –PRR focuses on a total program risk assessment versus MRA providing an objective score on the manufacturing maturity of the program and how to achieve required MRLs Bottom Line – if you have done a PRR, you can do an MRA –Requires same skill base

5. 5 Jim Morgan Manufacturing Technology Division AFRL/RXMT Phone # 937-904-4600 jim.morgan@wpafb.af.mil Manufacturing Readiness Assessment Acquisition Training Public Release Case # 88ABW-2008-0329

6. 6 What is a Manufacturing Readiness Assessment (MRA)? Why Manufacturing Readiness? What are Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs) and how do they pertain to the Acquisition Life Cycle? How to do an MRA Sample Outputs and Deliverables Finding and Conclusions Additional Information Session Outline

7. 7 What Is A Manufacturing Readiness Assessment? An MRA is –An Assessment of a Program’s Readiness to Manufacture and Produce Its Intended Design –A Tool to Develop and Implement - Manufacturing Risk Mitigation Plans Business Strategies –Effects of Design Changes (Planned Upgrades, Spiral) –Pricing Agreements (Long Term vs. Single Lot) –Capital Investment Plans (Contractor and/or Government) An MRA –Assigns Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs) to Key System Components –Analogous to Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs)

8. 8 What is a Manufacturing Readiness Assessment (MRA)? Why Manufacturing Readiness? What are Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs) and how do they pertain to the Acquisition Life Cycle? How to do an MRA Sample Outputs and Deliverables Finding and Conclusions Additional Information Session Outline

9. 9 Why Manufacturing Readiness? Manufacturing & Industrial Base Challenge Consensus among Congress, OSD, CSAF, GAO: “Advanced weapon systems cost too much, take too long to field, and are too expensive to sustain” GAO study of 54 weapons programs: –Core set of 26 programs: RDT&E costs up by 42% and schedule slipped by 20 % $42.7B total cost growth 2.5 years slip on average –Characteristics of successful programs (GAO): Mature technologies, stable designs, production processes in control S&T organization responsible for maturing technologies, rather than program or product development manager To mitigate impact of diminishing manufacturing infrastructure –People, policy, programs gutted –Lost recipe on how to manage manufacturing risk –Won’t get infrastructure back but still need to manage manufacturing risk

10. 10 Why Manufacturing Readiness? Acquisition Health and Manufacturing Readiness Manufacturing risk/maturity is not the only cost/schedule/performance driver, but we need to manage manufacturing readiness integral to the overall acquisition process  Products made by immature manufacturing processes generally: -Cost more -Are prone to quality problems -May not all perform the same -Are less reliable in service -Have a hard time delivering on schedule

11. 11 Provide a common language and widely-understood standard for: Assessing the performance maturity of a technology and plans for its future maturation Understanding the level of performance risk in trying to transition the technology into a weapon system application TRLs leave major transition questions unanswered: Is the technology producible? What will these cost in production? Can these be made in a production environment? Are key materials and components available? Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs)

12. 12 What is a Manufacturing Readiness Assessment (MRA)? Why Manufacturing Readiness? What are Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs) and how do they pertain to the Acquisition Life Cycle? How to do an MRA Sample Outputs and Deliverables Finding and Conclusions Additional Information Session Outline

13. 13 Common language and standard for –Assessing the manufacturing maturity of a technology or product and plans for its future maturation –Understanding the level of manufacturing risk in trying to produce a weapon system or transition the technology into a weapon system application Designed to help set the agenda for manufacturing risk mitigation Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRL)

14. 14 TRL 8 System Qual TRL 7 Prototype in Ops Environment TRL 6 Prototype in Rep Environment TRL 5 Breadboard in Rep Environment TRL 4 Breadboard in Lab TRL 3 Proof of Concept TRL 2 Concept Formulation TRL 1 Basic Principles Observed Production & Deployment System Development & Demonstration Technology Development Concept Refine- ment Relationship to System Acquisition Milestones Relationship to Technology Readiness Levels CBA MRL Relationships Pre-Concept Refinement TRL 9 Mission Proven MRL 3 Mfg Proof of Concept Developed MRL 4 Manufacturing Processes In Lab Environment MRL 5 Components In Production Relevant Environment MRL 6 System or Subsystem In Production Relevant Environment MRL 7 System or Subsystem In Production Representative Environment MRL 8 Pilot Line Demonstrated Ready for LRIP MRL 9 LRIP Demonstrated Ready for FRP MRL 10 FRP Demonstrated Lean Production Practices in place MRL 2 Mfg Concepts Identified MRL 1 Basic Mfg Implications Identified

15. 15 MRL Definitions Production relevant environment – An environment normally found during MRL 5 and 6 that contains key elements of production realism not normally found in the laboratory environment (e.g. uses production personnel, materials or equipment or tooling, or process steps, or work instructions, stated cycle time, etc.). May occur in a laboratory or model shop if key elements or production realism are added. Production representative environment – An environment normally found during MRL 7 (probably on the manufacturing floor) that contains most of the key elements (tooling, equipment, temperature, cleanliness, lighting, personnel skill levels, materials, work instructions, etc) that will be present in the shop floor production areas where low rate production will eventually take place. Pilot line environment – An environment normally found during MRL 8 in a manufacturing floor production area that incorporates all of the key elements (equipment, personnel skill levels, materials, components, work instructions, tooling, etc.) required to produce production configuration items, subsystems or systems that meet design requirements in low rate production. To the maximum extent practical, the pilot line should utilize rate production processes. MRL 1 Basic mfg implications identified MRL 2 Mfg concepts identified MRL 3 Mfg proof of concept developed MRL 4 Capability to produce the technology in a laboratory environment MRL 5 Capability to produce prototype components in a production relevant environment MRL 6 Capability to produce a prototype system or subsystem in a production relevant environment MRL 7 Capability to produce systems, subsystems or components in a production representative environment MRL 8 Pilot line capability demonstrated. Ready to begin low rate production MRL 9 Low rate production demonstrated. Capability in place to begin full rate production MRL 10 Full rate production demonstrated and lean production practices in place A B C

16. 9 MRL Evaluation Criteria (“Threads”) 1.Technology and Industrial Base Technology maturity, technology transition to production, ManTech development 2.Design Producibility program, design maturity 3.Cost and Funding Production cost knowledge (cost modeling), cost analysis, mfg investment budget 4.Materials (raw matls, components, subassys, subsystems) Maturity, availability, supply chain management, special handling 5.Process Capability and Control Modeling & Simulation (product & process), mfg process maturity, process yields/rates 6.Quality Management, to include supplier quality 7.Manufacturing Personnel, to include specialization, training, & certification 8.Facilities, to include capacity and plant layout & design 9.Manufacturing Management Manufacturing planning and scheduling Materials planning Tooling and special test equipment

17. 17 Milestone “ B ” Key Manufacturing Considerations Industrial Base capabilities identified for key technologies and key processes Producibility & Manufacturability assessment of design concepts completed Establishment/validation of manufacturing capability and management of manufacturing risk for the product lifecycle Initial Key Performance Parameters (KPPs) identified Producibility cost risks assessed Survey completed to determine if materials have been used before Lead times identified for all materials Survey completed for potential supply chain sources Special handling requirements identified Survey completed to determine the current state of proposed processes Yield and Rates assessed on proposed processes Quality strategy developed Manufacturing skill sets identified Specialized facility requirements/needs identified Special Tooling/Special Test Equipment (STE) requirements are considered A

18. 18 Milestone “ B ” Key Manufacturing Considerations B Industrial capability in place to support manufacturing of development articles Required manufacturing technology development solutions demonstrated in a production relevant environment Producibility assessments of key technologies/components and producibility trade studies completed Key Characteristics and tolerances established Lead times have been identified for all materials Cost model inputs include design requirements, material specifications, tolerances, integrated master schedule, results of system/subsystem simulations and production relevant demonstrations Material maturity verified through technology demonstration articles Availability issues addressed to meet technology demonstration articles Supply chain plans in place Plans to address special handling requirements complete Initial simulation models developed at the technology, sub-system or system level Manufacturing processes demonstrated in production relevant environment Yields and Rates evaluated in production relevant environment Initial Quality Plan and Quality Management System is in place Manufacturing workforce skills available for production in a relevant environment Manufacturing facility and facility development plans adequate to support SDD or Technology insertion Manufacturing risk mitigation approach for SDD or Technology insertion Programs defined. Most material decisions made (make/buy), material risk identified and plans made to mitigate Prototype tooling concepts demonstrated in relevant manufacturing environment.

19. 19 Milestone “ C ” Key Manufacturing Considerations C Industrial Capability Assessment (ICA) for MS C has been completed. Industrial capability is in place to support LRIP. Required manufacturing technology solutions validated on a pilot line Known producibility issues have been resolved and pose no significant risk for LRIP Detailed design of product features and interfaces is complete Major product design features are sufficiently stable such that key LRIP manufacturing processes will be representative of those used in FRP Engineering cost model driven by detailed design and validated with data from relevant environment Cost analysis of proposed changes to requirements or configuration Yields and Rates evaluated in production relevant environment Materials proven and validated on System Demonstration and Development (SDD) production as adequate to support LRIP Long Lead procurement initiated for LRIP. Availability issues pose no significant risk for LRIP Most material decisions made (make/buy), material risk identified and plans made to mitigate Prototype tooling concepts demonstrated in relevant mfg environment

20. 20 Manufacturing Considerations for Full Rate Production Decision (MRL 9) Industrial capability is in place to support start of FRP Producibility issues/risks discovered in LRIP have been mitigated and pose no significant risk for FRP Known producibility issues have been resolved and pose no significant risk for LRIP Major product design features are stable and LRIP produced items are proven in product testing Major product design features are sufficiently stable such that key LRIP manufacturing processes will be representative of those used in FRP Variability experiments conducted to show FRP impact and potential for continuous improvement Program has budget estimate for lean implementation during FRP Special handling procedures demonstrated in LRIP Manufacturing processes & procedures are established and controlled in production to 3- sigma or other appropriate quality level Yield and rate targets achieved, yield improvements on-going Quality targets verified on production line FRP personnel requirements identified Capacity plans adequate to support FRP decision All manufacturing risks have been validated and mitigated using LRIP articles All tooling, test and inspection equipment proven on LRIP

21. 21 What is a Manufacturing Readiness Assessment (MRA)? Why Manufacturing Readiness? What are Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs) and how do they pertain to the Acquisition Life Cycle? How to do an MRA Sample Outputs and Deliverables Finding and Conclusions Additional Information Session Outline

22. 22 Assessment Lead Briefs PM on Manufacturing Assessment Efforts/Expectations Works with PM to Determine appropriate level for Manufacturing Readiness Assessment(s) (MRAs) -- System may contain several critical technologies/components/manufacturing cells Schedule on-site MRA with contractor(s) Send Orientation Package to contractor(s) Define Assessment Team Membership Define Deliverables of Assessment Results Conduct on-site assessment with contractor(s) Deliver final report/briefing MR Assessment Process

23. 23 INTRODUCE TRAIN ASSESS MANAGE INCORPORATE Manufacturing Readiness Implementation Approach (ACATs) OBJECTIVE STATEMENT DEFINED Meet with Wing/Program Management Team And Other Stakeholders Define Objectives - Yield Improvement - New Variant (e.g. Spiral) - Increased Capacity (Surge) Decompose the Problem Space - By Technology (i.e. Component) - By Supplier - Handle Assembly & Test Wing/PM Team owns the plan

24. 24 Contact Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) to gather information on the contractor’s current and past performance. Notify companies and send orientation package –Purpose, approach, questions, strawman agenda –MRL definitions/threads –Address contract issues if any –Self-Assessment Select Assessment team(s) –Typically 2-6 members per team – Appropriate members (include Gov’t customer) Specialists for key technologies (if needed) Schedule On-site assessments –Months prior to key milestone decisions to establish a baseline and allow time to develop/implement risk mitigation plans Team Orientation–Meet prior to on-site assessment Preparations

25. 25 On-site MRA Process Review Contractor welcome, review of agenda and orientation to facility Introduction of assessment team and contractor personnel Government team lead briefing to contractor describing objectives and expectations for the on-site visit Contractor overview and discussion of the results of their self- assessment Shop-floor visits to key areas by individuals or small groups One-on-one or small group discussions between assessment team members and contractor subject matter experts focused on key areas Private meeting of Government assessment team to: –Prepare feedback and identify any action items –Initial assessment of current MRL (their area or overall) –Key strengths/risks/issues –Key missing data (if any) –Proposed action items Outbriefing by Government team to contractor

26. 26 Example Process Flow Generic Aircraft Large programs can require multiple MRAs Landing Gear Build-up Composite Fabrication Engine Build-up Composite Assembly Cable Fabrication Install Cables Install Oil System Install Fuselage Fuel System Assemble Tails Install Avionics Install Brake System Install Landing Gear Install Power plant Assemble Wings Install Wings/Tails Initial Power-up Checks System Tests Final Inspection Install Engine Cowls Engine Delivery Deliver to Facility B Move A/C To Test INS Delivery Colors represent supplier/facility location Deliver to Facility C

27. 27 Supplier MRA Plan Identify and prioritize critical suppliers Develop common SOW for distribution to suppliers –Scope of MRA detailed –Method of MRA detailed –Output defined Developed detailed MRA execution plan with each supplier (Schedule, format, personnel) Execute MRA Define/Plan/Execute MRL mitigations Measure mitigation effectiveness, update assessment

28. 28 Gather any key missing data Convene team meeting -- Typically within 2 weeks of on-site assessment –Discuss and finalize assessment –Examine current program and manufacturing risk reduction plans –Agree on likely MRL at completion of milestone if current plan is followed Share results with contractor Identify the specific risk reduction activities necessary to reach the next milestone Identify the funding, time-phasing and approach to carrying out each activity Prepare and submit final report Follow-on Activities

29. 29 What is a Manufacturing Readiness Assessment (MRA)? Why Manufacturing Readiness? What are Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs) and how do they pertain to the Acquisition Life Cycle? How to do an MRA Sample Outputs and Deliverables Finding and Conclusions Additional Information Session Outline

30. 30 MRA Process Outputs Baseline Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRL) Key Factors Where Manufacturing Readiness Falls Short Of Target –Define MRL Driving Issues Identify Programs And Plans To Reach Target MRL –Identify Existing Investments and Additional Needs –Summarize Improvement In Manufacturing Plan Assess Risk to Manufacturing Cost, Schedule, and Performance Implement and Execute the Manufacturing Plan Assess Effectiveness Of the Manufacturing Plan –Address Right Issues? –Timely? Adequately Funded? –Probability Of Success? –Options For Increased Effectiveness

31. 31 SAMPLE SUMMARY ROLL-UP OF COMPONENTS SubSystemTop Level MRL ObservationsMost Critical Guidance3- Lacking detailed process information - Key suppliers identified; Need key performance parameters - Need detailed process plans Detector from supplier A - Design & production issues - No alternate source Data Processor 3- New processor architecture -Immature design tools - New attachment processes needed Board Supplier can’t test at their site Low yields on initial run Propulsion6- Same as other systems in use - New component scheme Re-validate manufacturing process Supplier handle increased rate Air Vehicle 7- Same supplier as system X - Need to test new mating and assembly processes at the prime No critical items Test Plan6Several instances of re-design work and new test processes - New test strategy and plan - What will new design incorporate? - Manufacturing experience vital

32. 32 SAMPLE SUMMARY (Drill down) Guidance Sub systems Top Level MRL ObservationsMost Critical Front End Sensor 3 - Lacking details on builds - Process procedures need more work - Test and assembly procedures have not been verified in manufacturing environment Detector from supplier A - Design & production issues - No alternate source Data Processing PWB 3 - New processor architecture -Awaiting Design for Manufacturing and Assembly (DFMA) results Low yields on initial build Working process controls Looking at re-design for easier fabrication Cables For: Power Data 3 - Using same suppliers other weapon systems - Have not received prototypes, awaiting supplier delivery Re-validate manufacturing process as seen on past programs Need new process plan Housing4 - New supplier: limited experience - Need new assembly processes at the prime Need supplier management process; need new process plans Cooling 3 - Form, fit factors for new cooling design not in place Initial process plan for build in place Final cooling plan will be defined after front end is stable Integration Process that includes assembly and test 3- Several new test processes need development for new components New test strategy and plan New special test equipment must be ordered

33. 33 MRA Risk Management Assessing Risk is independent of the MRL value assigned –Higher MRL value may be highest risk Eg. Requires new equipment, high cost process Risk Assessment should consider –Time needed to reach target MRL –Require new personnel, training, capital, or more POM samples to flush out the process –Leverage other programs –Captive or Merchant Supplier Dependency?? –Part of a company’s core business Leads into an industrial base assessment Effective of use of Design for Manufacturing Tools and other simulation techniques.

34. 34 What is a Manufacturing Readiness Assessment (MRA)? Why Manufacturing Readiness? What are Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs) and how do they pertain to the Acquisition Life Cycle? How to do an MRA Sample Outputs and Deliverables Finding and Conclusions Additional Information Session Outline

35. 35 AFRL/RXM MRA Deskbook The “how-to” of MRAs First draft completed in March 07 Modeled after TRA Deskbook –Similarities Achieving levels of readiness for risk reduction Selection process for assessment areas –Differences Readiness in S&T and Acquisition world Rigorous assessment process Draft revised based on lessons learned from Reaper MRA –Dec 07, Public releasable, on DAU website

36. 36 Some MRL Thoughts MRLs are not a report card –MRL 7 might not be good –MRL 3 might not be bad MRLs are a tool to manage and mitigate manufacturing risk –A common language used to assess manufacturing maturity –Provide insight not oversight

37. 37 Some MRA Lessons Learned Process is more effective if company is actively engaged in the assessment System integration and test operations are often ripe for maturation efforts Resources required to conduct an MRA will vary significantly Subject matter expertise is needed to “do it right”

38. 38 Findings and Conclusions Looking at transitioning technology to production –Must incentivize good decision processes; –Unlike TRLs, going backwards on MRLs might be a good thing A low MRL number may be ok –Is there time to raise the level? –Is there a new manufacturing process being pursued? –Replacing a manual process with an automated process Encouraging repeatability, faster cycle time, etc. Identify opportunities to validate manufacturing processes –Avoid accepting analogous process claims during the design phase and claiming fabrication is maturing May never build enough units to reach MRL 10 –Achieve a six sigma or equivalent process –Stable Line, may require a multi-product factory

39. 39 MRA Thoughts MRA process highlights areas needing attention to lower production risk Easy Tracking for Prime contractor and Government as manufacturing proceeds Detailed analysis rank ordered; Can be an investment strategy Accomplished the goal as an acquisition test case Manufacturing maturity through the MRA process enables efficient, cost effective manufacturing

40. 40 What is a Manufacturing Readiness Assessment (MRA)? Why Manufacturing Readiness? What are Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs) and how do they pertain to the Acquisition Life Cycle? How to do an MRA Sample Outputs and Deliverables Finding and Conclusions Additional Information Session Outline

41. 41 Additional Information DoD MRL web site http://www.dodmrl.com - MRA link to DAU CoP - Contains MRL definitions, MRL criteria matrix, MRA Deskbook and more TRA Deskbook http://www.dod.mil/ddre/doc/tra_deskbook.pdf - MRLs contained in Appendix I DAU PQM Community of Practice https://acc.dau.mil/pqm - Manufacturing Readiness folder Look for MR definitions Look for MR matrix Look for MRL tutorial Look for MRA Deskbook