1. Ethno-Demographic Change and Nationalism in the UK and Beyond e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; twitter: @epkaufm; web: www.sneps.net

2. Numbers = Power? Demography usually affects politics indirectly, or in association with another factor Ethnonational change not about world population growth but: Uneven population growth across political, national and ethnic units Democracy and nationalism mean numbers=power So more numbers = more power OR rising threat perceptions

3. Figure 7 Source: Goldstone 2007

4. Ethno-demographic change and conflict To the extent ethnic groups and nations resemble biological ‘populations’ AND the link between ethnicity and territory has been sacralised by nationalism Where ethnic groups have fluid boundaries OR there is no sacralisation of ethnie-territory link, no conflict

5. Demography and Ethnic Conflict: Northern Ireland "The basic fear of Protestants in Northern Ireland is that they will be outbred by the Roman Catholics. It is as simple as that." - Terence O’ Neill, Unionist PM of Northern Ireland after resigning, 1969

6. Examples N. Ireland, Lebanon, Kosovo, Bosnia, Israel- Palestine, Cote D’Ivoire, Kenya, Uganda, Assam (India) Rise of Germany, Rise of USSR, Rise of Islam, Rise of China, Decline of the West…. In a less violent way, demographic change can lead to increased threat perceptions, even in peaceful societies

7. Source: Duffy and Frere-Smith 2014: 8-9. Issues Index question: “ What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? ”. Issues Index base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home. Home Office statistics based on ‘ Year ending ’.

10. Source: Plymouth Elections Centre