1. Situational Scan - Advancing Arizona’s Educational Attainment AzAIR Conference - Prescott April 4, 2008

2. Current Status According to the 2006 American Community Survey, 25.5% of Arizona’s population 25 years and older has at least a bachelor’s degree. Nationally, the equivalent percentage is 27.0% in 2006. In 2006, Arizona was the fastest growing state in the nation, and regularly is among the top few. A goal has been set for Arizona to match the national educational attainment rate by 2020. According to a White Paper by the Census Bureau, the nation’s educational attainment rate in 2020 is forecast to be 29.2%. What does all this mean?

6. So What Needs to Be Done? To stay at 25.5%, we would add 462,615 persons with at least a Bachelor’s degree, or 33,044 per year. To move to 27.0%, we would add 468,878 persons with at least a Bachelor’s degree, or 33,491 per year. To move to 29.2%, we would add 478,063 persons with at least a Bachelor’s degree, or 34,147 per year.

7. So What Have We Been Doing? Change in AZ Residents With 4- Year Degrees –52,920 in 2003 –42,730 in 2004 –69,250 in 2005 –59,997 in 2006 –56,219, 4 year average AUS Bachelor Degrees Awarded –16,697 in 2002-03 –17,350 in 2003-04 –18,299 in 2004-05 –18,302 in 2005-06 –17,662, 4 year average The Arizona University System is producing about 31.4% of the state’s 4-year degree population.

8. As Is Condition, P-20 Model

9. As Is Condition, continued

10. Produces the Following Results The cumulative increase in degrees awarded from 2007 through 2020 is 67,166 or 4,798 per year.

11. Looking Toward the Future In the next 14 years, if the AUS system makes no advances in inputs/throughputs, 247,268 persons will receive a Bachelor’s degree. Using the NCHEMS P-20 model, expanding inputs will add 67,166, about 91% (61,386) from the AUS. So of the 478,063 that we need to get to 29.2%, 308,654 would come from current throughputs and expanding inputs.

12. Improving Throughputs

13. Improving Throughputs, continued

14. Produces the Following Results The cumulative increase in degrees awarded from 2007 through 2020 is 93,968 or 6,712 per year.

15. Quick Summary Raising high school graduation rates from 77.4% to 80.4%, Raising college-going rates from 53.4% to 58.4%, Raising first-year retention rates from 72.7% to 76.7%, and Raising six-year graduation rates from 51.0% to 56.0% means....

16. Conclusions for 2020 Instead of having enrollments 37,561 higher than 2006, they would be 47,511 higher. Instead of having a cumulative increase in graduates of 67,166 since 2006, the cumulative increase would be 93,968. This increase would be the equivalent of nearly two years of recent degree awards.

19. Arizona Occupational Needs: Beyond Economic Growth & Replacement Assuming 4% job growth and replacement of workers who retire/die, Arizona needs 545,126 people with a 4-year degree. Some occupations currently have a gap between existing employment levels and ‘needed’ employment levels. How can the occupations be identified and quantified? How many more degrees would need to be added to Arizona’s economy?

20. Occupational Location Quotients Parity is when the ratio of employment in an occupation in Arizona as a fraction of either total employment or population equals the same ratio nationally. Some occupations are sensitive to the choice of employment or population. Most are not. Performing these calculations for all occupations needing postsecondary education yields the following.

21. Occupations With Largest Gaps Using Population Comparison

22. Conclusion A range of 475,000 to 530,000 for those with a 4-year degree by 2020 was originally proposed. There are currently 139 occupations in Arizona that need postsecondary education and have a gap with the nation. Bringing those occupations up to national levels would add the need for an additional 109,172 people with postsecondary education.