1. High-Performance Computing at ENEA: UTMEA climate modeling activities From past to future climate over the Euro-Mediterranean area Dynamical Downscaling over Africa In the framework of the European Project “Euporias”, seasonal forecasts will be provided over the Great Horn of Africa region for use in impact and climate service applications. Dynamical downscaling of the seasonal forecast of the EC-Earth coupled GCM is performed with the regional climate model RegCM. In the Figure below is shown the Great Horn of Africa – surface temperature (mean 2000-2003) On the upper right Figure isi shown the cumulated rainfall during the season April-October (main crop season in the Sahel and East Africa). The map shows the difference in cumulated rainfall between the period 2055-2085 and 1970- 2000. The simulation was carried out according to the Africa-CORDEX standards within the project IMPACT2C using lateral boundary conditions from the climate scenario RCP4.5 from the CNRM-CM5 global model. The period 2055- 2085 corresponds to an increase in global surface temperature of +2°C compared to pre-industrial levels Wave Energy Potential in the Mediterranean Distribution of wave energy as a function of significant wave period and significant wave height at specific points. Lower left panel shows the average yearly energy associated with sea states identified by Te and Hs couples. Dotted lines mark reference power levels. Upper panel shows the energy distribution as a function of Te only; right panel as a function of Hs only. Thanks to CRESCO the first high resolution atlas of the wave energy resources in the Mediterranean Sea has been recently produced by UTMEA. The energy resources have been evaluated through of a numerical simulation performed on the entire Mediterranean basin for the period 2001-2010 using a third generation ocean wave model. The model results have been extensively validated against most of the available wave buoy and satellite altimeter data. Distribution of average wave power flux per unit crest on western Sardinia coastline. Values are calculated on a line located 12 km off the coast. Distribution of the variability of the expected yearly revenues (period considered years 2001-2010). In the framework of the climate projection for the Euro-Mediterranean area UTMEA-CLIM has recently developed an atmosphere–ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean basin, called the PROTHEUS system, composed by the regional climate model RegCM3 as the atmospheric component and by a regional configuration of the MITgcm model as the oceanic component. The model is applied to an area encompassing the Mediterranean Sea and compared to a stand-alone version of its atmospheric component. Annual precipitation anomalies for period 2041-2050 with respect to climatological mean 1961-1990 in the climate simulation provided by regional earth system model PROTHEUS, developed by UTMEA- CLIM lab at ENEA. We consider IPCC A1B emission scenario The global driver is the corresponding global simulation provided by ECHAM5- MPIOM global model. Annual surface temperature anomalies for period 2041-2050 with respect to climatological mean 1961- 1990 in the climate simulation provided by regional earth system model PROTHEUS, developed by UTMEA-CLIM lab at ENEA. We consider IPCC A1B emission scenario The global driver is the corresponding global simulation provided by ECHAM5-MPIOM global model. Domain for the PROTHEUS simulation with corresponding topography and bathymetry. Units are meter. Sea level anomalies of SSL, SSLT, SSLS horizontally averaged over the Mediterranean basin for the E20C and the EA1B run. Trend over the first 50 year (E20C run) has been subtracted. Sea level anomalies of SSL, SSLT, SSLS horizontally averaged over the Mediterranean basin for the E20C and the EA1B2 run. Trend over the first 50 year (E20C run) has been subtracted E20C– forced by a Global Model* reproducing A1B IPCC scenario (1951-2001) EA1B– forced by a Global Model* reproducing A1B IPCC scenario (2001-2050) EA1B2 – forced by a Global Model* reproducing A1B IPCC scenario (2001-2050) The 1958-2004 time-mean circulation at 15m and 300 m depth as simulated by the ocean component (MITgcm). Straits Dynamics Decadal mean tropospheric column ozone for the 1950s and 2000s and the RCPs 1210; from top to bottom: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP8.5 shown for the 2050s and 2090s. The data are derived from the CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry River routing scheme from WBMplus has also been successfully incorporated in the ENEA Euro-Mediterranean climate model. The figures show sample snapshots of the projected discharge and runoff fields, from an experiment forced by modelled precipitation and surface temperature fields. The driving model is the regional climate model MPI-REMO (EU projects ENSEMBLES). Earth-System Modellnig The Turkish Strait System: Dardanelles – Marmara Sea - Bosporus UTMEA has recently developed a very high resolution ocean model for the Turkish Strait System in order to asses the water balance between the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea. The Strait of Gibraltar The Turkish straits system is a complex environment characterized by highly contrasting properties in a region of high climatic variability. An all time challenge is the modeling of the entire system: Dardanelles – Maramara Sea – Bosphorous. Red lines in the upper and right panels are the cumulative energy as a percentage of the total. Red dots on the cumulative lines mark each 10th percentile. Rose plot in the upper right panel shows energy distribution over wave incoming direction. Each circle represents 20% fractions of the total energy. The Mediterranean Sea is a semi- enclosed basin displaying an active thermohaline circulation (MTHC) that is sustained by the atmospheric forcing and controlled by the narrow and shallow Strait of Gibraltar. UTMEA has developed a state-of-the-art model for the Strait of Gibraltar that can be considered as a benchmark for simulating the dynamics of the Strait. The model is based on the MITgcm; it is non- hydrostatic and has a horizontal resolution of about 30m. Figure on the right shows the internal wave generation and propagation through the Strait of Gibraltar as simulated by the non-hydrostatic MITgcm model. Authors: Gianmaria Sannino (gianmaria.sannino@enea.it), Sandro Calmanti, Adriana Carillo, Irene Cionni, Alessandro Dell’Aquila, Giovanna Pisacane, Maria Vittoria Struglia. For more information about the UTMEA activities, please visit the web page: http://utmea.enea.it/