1. HPAI: Market Impacts DR. TOM ELAM (THOMASELAM@FARMECON.COM) FARMECON LLC MAY 6, 2015

3. Feed loss assumptions: Turkeys loss is all potential feed consumption for average weight birds. Layer loss is 6 months of total flock feed consumption.

5. Turkey outbreak shows little sign of abating

6. Conclusions Now the largest poultry flu outbreak in U.S. history, and getting worse Significant financial impact for affected turkey and layer flock growers/owners HPAI losses to date represent tiny percent of U.S. feed use Even if the losses double or triple, still no significant feed market effect Export losses will help reduce production impacts on overall turkey and egg prices Unless broiler flocks get involved, only downside price pressure for chicken Dark meat turkey and chicken parts prices remain depressed Potential positive for whole bird turkeys and breast meat Significant impact on egg and egg products supply ◦4-6% loss for period while large Iowa flocks out of production ◦Will take up to 6 months or more to get back to full production – limited pullet supply ◦Table eggs likely to be diverted to breaking

7. HPAI Flock Infection and Poultry Export Restriction Resources Flocks affected (updated about 3-6pm EDT weekdays):Flocks affected http://www.aphis.usda.gov/wps/portal/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/sa_animal_disease_information/sa_ avian_health/ct_avian_influenza_disease/!ut/p/a1/lZHLcoJAEEW_xUWW1IzDewm- QCUmGoOwodoBZKpgoGC0Sr8-- EjKLCRmdt1979Tt0yhEGxRyOLAdCFZyyM91qEXThUP6NibuZGWOsPv6OfaMuS4vHKUVBK1gMLEcRZ9jjBWDY HdoO0Pd9DB2tef8-MGz8F9- H4UopFxUIkMBVBlrIlpykXAR5WxbQ318wQ1E5b6O0pLum0sFnBWQR1kCucjuOzFrEmiSiPG0rIsLhOv4wID_6 Km4NVpZvk_4Cb6N5zAVZTEKtsRMsUYSSTb6ICl0K0uggioRNU7jmFJdlvVr-F_7TUZ2u994_qbPpgTP1Jugi- 9F0AEwaAnrDxGaClr9M_X0iZuS2ht4u_ZbEJl0pok2nZSv4zvKaNNB2bdR- O4vVc1CVbFeF4asLZ3TR1r4w6PV630Bp5beKA!!/?1dmy&urile=wcm%3apath%3a%2Faphis_content_library %2Fsa_our_focus%2Fsa_animal_health%2Fsa_animal_disease_information%2Fsa_avian_health%2Fsa_det ections_by_states%2Fct_ai_pacific_flywayhttp://www.aphis.usda.gov/wps/portal/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/sa_animal_disease_information/sa_ avian_health/ct_avian_influenza_disease/!ut/p/a1/lZHLcoJAEEW_xUWW1IzDewm- QCUmGoOwodoBZKpgoGC0Sr8-- EjKLCRmdt1979Tt0yhEGxRyOLAdCFZyyM91qEXThUP6NibuZGWOsPv6OfaMuS4vHKUVBK1gMLEcRZ9jjBWDY HdoO0Pd9DB2tef8-MGz8F9- H4UopFxUIkMBVBlrIlpykXAR5WxbQ318wQ1E5b6O0pLum0sFnBWQR1kCucjuOzFrEmiSiPG0rIsLhOv4wID_6 Km4NVpZvk_4Cb6N5zAVZTEKtsRMsUYSSTb6ICl0K0uggioRNU7jmFJdlvVr-F_7TUZ2u994_qbPpgTP1Jugi- 9F0AEwaAnrDxGaClr9M_X0iZuS2ht4u_ZbEJl0pok2nZSv4zvKaNNB2bdR- O4vVc1CVbFeF4asLZ3TR1r4w6PV630Bp5beKA!!/?1dmy&urile=wcm%3apath%3a%2Faphis_content_library %2Fsa_our_focus%2Fsa_animal_health%2Fsa_animal_disease_information%2Fsa_avian_health%2Fsa_det ections_by_states%2Fct_ai_pacific_flyway Export restrictions by country of destination:Export restrictions by country of destination http://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsis/topics/international-affairs/exporting-products/export-library- requirements-by-country http://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsis/topics/international-affairs/exporting-products/export-library- requirements-by-country