Presentation on theme: "January 14, 2009 IPAA Private Capital Conference Jason T. Meek Managing Director, Corporate Finance RBC Capital Markets Conditions in the Energy Capital."— Presentation transcript:
January 14, 2009 IPAA Private Capital Conference Jason T. Meek Managing Director, Corporate Finance RBC Capital Markets Conditions in the Energy Capital Markets
1 ’ 09 Energy Capital Markets Private EquityBanks Conditions in the Energy Capital Markets
2 Overview of RBC Capital Markets Assets $632 B Credit Rating Aaa / AA- Ranking by Assets in North America #5 Market Cap ~$42 B Assets under Admin. $562 B Employees Worldwide ~80,000 #1 in E&P Equity for 2008 $28 Billion Committed to North American Energy Companies Top Tier A&D Advisor in-house (Richardson Barr) Top-Tier Research (Equity and High Yield)
3 Emerging Leader in North America RBC has maintained its strong capital position relative to its competitors RBC has demonstrated unique stability during the market dislocation and increased its leadership across investment banking products Ascending rank by % market cap lost (1)Source Bloomberg and FactSet. Write-downs and equity capital raised based on Q3 2007 to date RBC on Top Again Financial Post January 31, 2008 RBC Capital Markets Hires from U.S. Rivals to Expand Bloomberg News August 20, 2008 RBC Hires Again on Credit Crunch Fallout Financial Post July 08, 2008 Moody’s Affirms RBC’s Ratings Moody’s May 30, 2008 Battle for the 'bulge' business; RBC gets paws on global customers National Post September 29, 2008 Write Downs (1) $14 B$97 B$66 B$56 B $16 B $27 B $49 B$13 B$5 B $21 B $2 B Equity Capital Raised (1) $14 B$11 B$74 B$30 B $25 B $56 B $31 B$11 B$21 B $45 B $1 B Market cap. (US$bn) (1) Current (1/9/09) 2007 (1/1/07) $108.6 $12.0 $85.4 $20.2 $273.7 $36.8 $82.3 $18.6 $127.0 $42.3 $239.8 $65.2 $88.7 $33.2 $84.8 $27.9 $96.9 $61.0 $41.5 $41.4 $0.0 $167.6
4 Energy Capital Markets Current global recession Global oil demand expected to decline 0.6% in 2009 US natural gas demand expected to remain flat for 2009 Uncertainty of new administration Volatility of current equity markets Ongoing credit crunch Necessity to shore up liquidity position Decrease in borrowing bases by 15 percent to 20 percent (3) OPEC is dependent of oil prices around $50.00/bbl to fund domestic programs and capital investments (1) December production cuts of of 2.2 mmb/d; previous cut of 1.5 mmb/d in October 2H 09 Forward curve average of ~$56.00/bbl (2) Tax cuts / economic stimulus package Institutions on sidelines E&P companies trading at below average multiples Ample supply of private equity Drop in natural gas rig counts should provide near-term price support HeadwindsTailwinds (1) “OPEC puts faith in deep cut to revive oil price” 12/16/08. (2) Bloomberg as of 1/9/09. (3) “Credit issues ahead for energy sector” 12/26/08. E&P stock prices down approximately 52% for the year 2008 Commodity prices have dropped significantly through the second half of 2008
5 Energy Equity Market Overview (January 2007 – present) Source: Bloomberg, as of 1/9/09.
6 E&P Sector – Multiple Comparison Source: Factset, as of 1/9/09. Figures represent closing price at quarter end divided by trailing twelve months cash flow from operations.
7 E&P Sector – Multiple Analysis Source: Bloomberg, FactSet and Wall Street research. Note: “Peak” based on average of peak TEV / NTM EBITDA multiples for 2008. 7/11/08 “Peak” 1/9/2009
8 Equity Market Activity Source: Dealogic and FactSet as of 12/31/08. Note: Bold denotes RBC managed transaction. 2008 E&P Equity Deals ($ billions) Equity Issuances – All SectorEquity Issuances – E&P Sector ($ billions)
10 High Yield Market Update High Yield Spreads Since January 2008 Source: Bloomberg Spread (bps) On January 9 th 3,037 bps 1,683 bps 1,450 bps 1,141 bps
11 E&P High Yield – Spread to Treasuries “BB” rated Note: RBC data; comprised of a sampling of bonds from each rating category. “B” rated Spread (bps)
12 High Yield Market Fund Flows – All Sector New Issuances – All SectorNew Issuances – E&P Sector Source: Dealogic Note: Bold denotes RBC managed transaction. 2008 E&P High Yield Deals ($ millions) ($ billions)
13 E&P A&D Market Successful Deals Q1 2009 Deals in the Market Approximately $3 Billion currently being marketed Very few deals on the market currently RBC anticipates a much busier second quarter with many packages coming from Public sellers ($ millions) Source: RBC Richardson Barr database.
14 What This All Means Entry point for long-term commodity bullish investors Low commodity prices + low valuations Expected Distressed Situations – Bankruptcies? Lower cash flow Lower investment = slower / no reserve and production growth Downward borrowing base adjustments Negative reserve revisions Little access to cash from asset sales until buyers return Over-Equitized Equity Investment by Private Equity 2009 is “The Year of the Merger or JV” Strong + Weak Weak + Weak JV for cash or carried interest to preserve liquidity
15 It’s Not All That Bad, is it? Yes it is – for now However… High Yield Market showing signs of life for BB names Select equity transactions for opportunistic acquisitions or salvation Significant assets should be available in 2009 for liquid buyers as a result of downward borrowing base adjustments Merger of equals on an equivalent value basis always an opportunity but subject to bank participation “It’s darkest before the dawn”
16 Contact Information Jason T. Meek Managing Director Phone: (713) 403-5620 Email: firstname.lastname@example.org For an email of the presentation, please send “IPAA Presentation” in the subject line to email@example.com