Presentation on theme: "Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis to Make Investment Decisions"— Presentation transcript:
1 Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis to Make Investment Decisions Chapter 8Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis to Make Investment Decisions
2 Topics Covered Discounted Cash Flows, Not Profits Incremental Cash Flows (Ping King Example)Treatment of InflationSeparate Investment & Financing DecisionsCalculating Cash FlowsWednesday Example: TBA2
3 Learning ObjectivesIdentify the cash flows attributable to a proposed new project.Calculate the cash flows of a project from standard financial statements.Understand how the company’s tax bill is affected by depreciation and how this affects project value.Understand how changes in working capital affect project cash flows.
4 Capital Budgeting Steps For a potential project:Forecast the project cash flows.Estimate the opportunity cost of capitalDiscount the future cash flows at the opportunity cost of capital.Find NPV of project = PV of future cash flows – required investment, and accept if NPV > 0.
5 Incremental Cash Flows Discount incremental cash flowsInclude All Indirect EffectsForget Sunk CostsInclude Opportunity CostsRecognize the Investment in Working CapitalBeware of Allocated Overhead CostsIncremental Cash Flowcash flow with projectcash flow without project=-9
6 Incremental Cash Flows IMPORTANTAsk yourself this questionWould the cash flow still exist if the project does not exist?If yes, do not include it in your analysis.If no, include it.11
7 Calculating Cash Flow Total Cash Flow = Cash Flow from Investment in Plant & Equipment +Cash Flow from Investments in Working Capital +Cash Flow from Operations
8 Cash Flow from Investment in Plant & Equipment Calculations for Ping Kings In general, initial cost at beginning of project and possible inflow from after-tax salvage (selling) value at end of project.Ping will need to buy and install new manufacturing equipment costing $4,500,000, which would be depreciated to zero over 5 years using straight-line depreciation.At the end of the project’s 3-year life, Ping estimates they can sell this equipment for $800,000. (tax rate = 40%)
9 Cash Flow from Investment Calculations for Ping Kings Initial investment in equipment today (t = 0) = -$4,500,000For operating cash flow calculation, annual depreciation = $4,500,000/5 = $900,000Book Value of Equipment = Original Cost – Total DepreciationBook Value at end of year 3 (BV) = $4,500,000 – 3($900,000) = $1,800,000Year 3 Salvage Value (SV) = $800,000Tax on SV = Tax Rate x (SV – BV) = 0.4($800,000 - $1,800,000) = $400,000 tax savingsYear 3 after-tax salvage value = $800,000+$400,000 = $1,200,000: year 3 cash flow from investments
10 Sunk CostsThese are costs that cannot be recovered if a project is rejected.Examples:Completed Marketing & Feasibility Studies,Previous new product development and testingFor the Ping Kings Project, Ping has already spent $500,000 to research and design the Ping Kings.This cost is to be ignored because it is a sunk cost.
11 Investment in Working Capital (Net) Working Capital = Current Assets – Current LiabilitiesMost new projects require additional short-term (current) assets and often additional current liabilities, such asAdditional receivables from increased credit sales.Additional inventory (raw materials) necessary to produce additional new products.Additional trade credit (accounts payables) and taxes and wages payable.Any needed increase in (net) working capital is an outflow of cash, but these outflows are recovered at the end of the project.
12 Calculation of Cash Flow from Investments in Working Capital for Ping Kings Project ($000s) Ping estimates they will need working capital equal to 10% of sales revenue for the following year. Ping estimates they can sell 10,000 sets of Ping Kings in year 1, 15,000 sets in year 2, and 9,000 in year 3. They also estimate they can sell the Ping Kings for $640 a set in years 1 & 2, but they will only be able to sell them for $540 a set in year 3.YearSalesWC needWC Chg (474) (486)Increase in WC is an outflow, decrease in WC is an inflow
13 Methods of Calculating CF from Operations (Oper. CF) Method 1: Oper. CF = revenues – cash expenses – taxesMethod 2: Oper. CF = net accounting profit + depreciationMethod 3: (revenues – cash expenses) x (1 – tax rate) + depreciation x tax rateAll these methods give the same result!
14 Ping King CF for Operations Info. Ping estimates they can sell 10,000 sets of Ping Kings in year 1, 15,000 sets in year 2, and 9,000 in year 3. They also estimate they can sell the Ping Kings for $640 a set in years 1 & 2, but they will only be able to sell them for $540 a set in year 3. Variable costs will be $350 a set for all three years and Ping also expects to have $300,000 in fixed manufacturing costs annually for this project.Ping’s marginal tax rate is 40%.
16 Year 1 Ping King CF from Operations using Methods 1 & 3 Method 1: Oper. CF = revenues – cash expenses – taxes = 6400 – = 1920Method 3: (revenues – cash expenses) x (1 – tax rate) + depreciation x tax rate = (6400 – 3800)(1 – 0.4) + 900(0.4) = 1920
17 Total Incremental Cash Flows & Decision for Ping Kings ($000s) YearCap Inv (4500)WC Inv (640) (320)Oper CFTotal CF (5140)CF0 C01 C02 C03NPV at 18% = or $320,247IRR = 21.5%
18 Indirect CF EffectsInclude impact that a new project would have on existing company sales and expenses.Example: Callaway Golf considers making a new line of irons. They must consider lost sales on existing product line of irons.
19 What about this?Ping’s current line of irons is the Ping i3, which have an estimated product life of 1 year remaining. Should Ping go ahead with the Ping Kings project if they thought next year’s Ping i3 sales and variable costs would decrease by $1,000,000 and $500,000 respectively on a BEFORE-TAX basis.
20 This would affect the year 1 CF from Operations: Indirect Effect Year Orig 1 Change New 1Revenue($000) 6,400 (1,000) 5,400-Variable Costs 3,500 (500) 3,000-Fixed Costs-DepreciationPre-tax Profit 1,700 (500) 1,200Tax(40%) (200)Net Profit 1,020 (300)+DepreciationOper Cash Flow 1,920 (300) 1,620New year 1 total cash flow = 1620 – 320 = 1300,NEW NPV at 18% = or $66,009New IRR = 18.7%
21 Inflation and Projected Cash Flows INFLATION RULEBe consistent in how you handle inflation!!Use nominal interest rates to discount nominal cash flows.Use real interest rates to discount real cash flows.You will get the same results, whether you use nominal or real figures12
22 Separation of Investment & Financing Decisions When valuing a project, ignore how the project is financed (exclude interest expense from cash flow forecast).Following the logic from incremental analysis ask yourself the following question: Is the project existence dependent on the financing? If no, you must separate financing and investment decisions.17
23 MACRS Depreciation vs. Straight-Line for Ping Kings Fastest depreciation method that corporations are allowed to use for tax purposes.Assume our Ping Kings equipment (cost = $4,500,000) falls into the 5-year MACRS class. (recall tax rate of 40%, r = 18%). Should MACRS be used?Depreciation Tax Shield (Savings) = Deprec. X tax rateDep Diff in PV ofYear Dep% M Dep S-L Dep Diff TaxShd TaxShd, ,,440, , , , ,128, ,000 (36,000) (14,400) (8,764), , ,364, ,000,200MACRS Year 3 Book Value = 1,296,000Straight-Line Year 3 Book Value = 1,800,000*Difference in After-tax Salvage Value = .4(1,296,000 – 1,800,000) = -201,600PV of After-Tax Salvage Value Difference = -201,600/(1.18)3 = -122,700Change in NPV = 146,364 – 122,700 = 23,664