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Lean Energy Analysis. Effective Energy Management  Develop baseline –Utility analysis –Plant energy balance –Lean energy analysis (LEA)  Take action.

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Presentation on theme: "Lean Energy Analysis. Effective Energy Management  Develop baseline –Utility analysis –Plant energy balance –Lean energy analysis (LEA)  Take action."— Presentation transcript:

1 Lean Energy Analysis

2 Effective Energy Management  Develop baseline –Utility analysis –Plant energy balance –Lean energy analysis (LEA)  Take action –Identify and quantify energy saving opportunities –Prioritize energy saving opportunities –Implement energy saving opportunities  Measure and benchmark to sustain efforts –Develop metrics for system energy efficiency –Measure energy efficiency improvement with sliding NAC –Compare energy efficiency between facilities with NAC

3 ‘ Lean Energy Analysis ’  Quantifying relationship between energy and: –Production –Weather using statistical models  Deriving actionable information from models

4 Source Data

5 Actual Temperature Data

6 Time Trends: Electricity and Outdoor Temperature

7 Time Trends: Electricity and Production

8 Electricity vs Toa: 3PC R 2 = 0.67 CV-RMSE = 6.4%

9 Electricity vs Production: 2P R 2 = 0.32 CV-RMSE = 9.2%

10 Electricity vs Toa: 3PC-MVR R2 = 0.82 CV-RMSE = 5.1%

11 Elec = Ind + Wea-dep + Prod-dep E (kWh/dy) = 41,589 (kWh/dy) (kWh/dy-F) x [Toa (F) – (F)] (kWh/dy-unit) x P (units) Independent = 41,589 (kWh/dy) Wea-dep = (kWh/dy-F) x [Toa (F) – (F)] + Prod-dep = (kWh/dy-unit) x P (units)

12 Disaggregate Electricity Use Weather = 10% Production = 39% Independent = 51% Temperature Electricity

13 Time Trends: Fuel Use and Outdoor Temperature

14 Time Trends: Fuel Use and Production

15 Fuel Use vs Toa: 3PH R 2 = 0.92 CV-RMSE = 7.5%

16 Fuel Use vs Toa: 3PH-MVR R 2 = 0.97 CV-RMSE = 5.1%

17 Fuel Use = Ind + Wea-dep + Prod-dep Fuel Use (mcf/dy) = (mcf/dy) (mcf/dy-F) x [62.06 (F) - Toa (F)] (mcf/dy-unit) x P (units) Independent = (mcf/dy) Wea-dep = (mcf/dy-F) x [62.06 (F) - Toa (F)] + Prod-dep = (mcf/dy-unit) x P (units)

18 Disaggregate Fuel Use Weather = 28% Production = 58% Independent = 14% Temperature Fuel

19 ‘ Lean Energy Analysis ’  Called “lean energy” analysis because of its synergy with the principles of “lean manufacturing”.  In lean manufacturing, “any activity that does not add value to the product is waste”.  Similarly, “any energy that does not add value to a product or the facility is also waste”.

20 Quantified “Leaness” of Electricity Use Weather = 10% Production = 39% Independent = 51% Temperature Electricity “Independent” is energy not added to product. Perfectly “lean” when Ind = 0

21 Quantified “Leaness” of Fuel Use Weather = 28% Production = 58% Independent = 14% Temperature Fuel “Independent” is energy not added to product. Perfectly “lean” when Ind = 0

22 How ‘ Lean ’ is Your Electricity Use?

23 How ‘ Lean ’ is Your Fuel Use?

24 Average LEA Scores (%P+%W) 28 Manufacturing Facilities 39% 58%

25 Using ‘ Lean Energy Analysis ’ To Discover Savings Opportunities LEA Indicators of Savings Opportunities –High “Independent” indicates waste –Departure from expected shape –High scatter indicates poor control

26 Low Electricity LEA (1%) Identifies Equipment Turn-off Opportunities Company thought presses stamp 95% of time Data show presses stamp 50% of time; use 66% of peak power when idle Turning off presses saves 40% and dramatically increases plant LEA

27 Low Fuel LEA Identifies Insulation Opportunities

28 Departure From Expected Shape Identifies Malfunctioning Economizers Electricity use should flatten below 50 F Functional economizer Economizer w/ broken gears

29 High Data Scatter Identifies Control Opportunities Observation: heating energy varies by 3x at same temp Discovery: didn’t close shipping doors

30 High Heating Slope Identifies Excess Ventilation Turn off excess exhaust air fans reduces vent by 13,000 cfm Lowers heating slope, balance temperature, and fuel use

31 Lean Energy Analysis  Called “Lean Energy Analysis” because of synergy with “Lean Manufacturing”.  In lean manufacturing, “any activity that does not add value to the product is waste”.  Similarly, “any energy that does not add value to a product or the facility is also waste”.

32 Lean Energy Analysis  Quick but accurate disaggregation of energy use: –Quantifies non-value added energy –Helps identify savings opportunities –Provides an accurate baseline for measuring the effectiveness of energy management efforts over time.

33 Thank You!

34 Using LEA Models for Measurement and Benchmarking  Sustaining energy efficiency efforts requires that effectiveness of past efforts be accurately evaluated. –Verify the performance of past energy-efficiency efforts –Inform the selection of future energy-efficiency initiatives –Help develop energy-efficiency targets  Measurement –Use LEA model to measure savings  Benchmarking –Use LEA model to compare facilities benchmarking

35 Measure Weather-Normalized and Production-Normalized Energy Savings Pre-retrofit Post-retrofit Savings

36 Track Weather-Normalized and Production-Normalized Energy Use (NAC) Annual Consumption increased 17%. NAC increased 6% Plant energy efficiency decreased 6%. Solid Line: NAC Dashed Line: Actual Consumption

37 Track Weather-Normalized and Production-Normalized Energy Intensity (NEI) Normalized Energy Intensity decreased 5.4%.

38 Benchmarking  Comparing energy performance across multiple sites  Benchmark best/worst NAC and change in NAC  Benchmark best/worst coefficients and change in coefficients

39 The Big Picture: Electricity NAC and  NAC for 14 Facilities  NAC NAC

40 More Detail: Ei and  Ei Best candidates for lighting retrofits  Ei Ei

41 More Detail: Tb and  Tb Best candidates for controls retrofits  TB TB

42 More Detail: CS and  CS Best candidates for HVAC retrofits  CS CS

43 Large Independent Fuel Use Identifies Insulation Opportunities 50% of fuel use by holding furnaces Insulate furnaces and switch to coreless furnaces

44 Departure From Expected Shape Identifies Malfunctioning Economizers  Air conditioning electricity use should flatten below 50 F  Audit found malfunctioning economizers

45 High Heating Slope Identifies Ventilation Opportunities Night heating with make-up air unit rather than unit heater

46 High Data Scatter Identifies Control Opportunities Heating energy varies by 3X at same temp!

47 Lean Energy Analysis  Quick, accurate disaggregation of energy use: –Quantifies non-value added energy –Helps identify savings opportunities –Provides an accurate baseline for measuring the effectiveness of energy management efforts over time.


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