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On the edge: the climatically sensitive dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti in the Americas Andrew Monaghan National Center for Atmospheric Research 17.

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Presentation on theme: "On the edge: the climatically sensitive dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti in the Americas Andrew Monaghan National Center for Atmospheric Research 17."— Presentation transcript:

1 On the edge: the climatically sensitive dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti in the Americas Andrew Monaghan National Center for Atmospheric Research 17 April

2 Acknowledgements: Collaborators NCAR: Mary Hayden Daniel Steinhoff Katherine Dickinson Paul Bieringer Ryan Cabell Kevin Sampson Other Institutions Kacey Ernst, U. Arizona Cory Morin, NASA MSFC Jamie Cavanaugh, U. Colorado Carlos Welsh Rodriguez, U. Veracruzana Lars Eisen, Saul Lozano, Colorado State U. Emily Zielinski-Gutierrez, CDC Christopher Tittel, Florida Department of Health in Monroe County Michael Doyle, Monroe County Mosquito Control, Rolando Diaz Caravantes, Lucia Castro, Colegio de Sonora Anne Cox, Nederland H.S. And many others… 2

3 Acknowledgements: Students! 3

4 Ae. aegypti at its high altitude margins (NSF: GEO ) Ae. aegypti early career investigator (NASA: NNX14AI89G) Ae. aegypti in Key West and Tucson (NIH: NIAID R56AI09184) Ae. aegypti in the Sonoran Desert (NIH: IR01AI ) Dengue biosurveillance (DTRA: HDTRA1-13-C-0081) Acknowledgements: Grants 4

5 Presentation Outline Background Aedes aegypti, dengue and weather Aedes aegypti, dengue and humans Conclusions 5

6 Background 6

7 Aedes aegypti: a clever mosquito Vector of dengue –Also a vector of chikungunya and yellow fever Lives in close association with humans –Exploits artificial containers near and in homes for immature life stages –Adult females feed almost exclusively on human blood. Leg biter. –Females often rest and feed indoors –Feeds during daytime when humans are active 7 cdc.gov

8 Aedes aegypti and Weather Meteorological factors impact Ae. aegypti numerous ways: –Temperature ‘envelope’ determines survival and development rates –Daily temperature range regulates development rates –Rainfall provides the water required for the immature stages –Temperature affects adult feeding behavior –Temperature modulates dengue incubation period in mosquito –Humidity affects adult survival rates 8 cidd.psu.edu tijerasrainbarrels.com

9 Dengue Fever Dengue Fever and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever are caused by dengue viruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes Annually, ~400 million people contract dengue worldwide No approved vaccine available Increasing number and severity of cases in the Americas, including U.S. 9 Nature.com Bvgh.org

10 Ae. aegypti Humans Dengue Virus Emergence of Dengue Environment 10

11 Aedes aegypti, dengue and weather 11

12 WHATCH’EM: Water Height and Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model SW: Shortwave radiation LW: Longwave radiation H: Sensible heat L: Latent heat G: Ground heat C: Conduction from container surfaces S: Heat storage The heat storage (i.e., change in temperature) in the water container is equal to the balance of energy to/from the container (Steinhoff et al. 2015, JME) 12

13 The day-to-day temperature variability is resolved by WHATCH’EM. There are big temperature differences among containers at the same site! WHATCH’EM Field Results: Veracruz, Mexico Observations WHATCH’EM (Steinhoff et al. 2015, JME) Date (2013) Full Sun – 5-gal Black Full Shade – 5-gal Black

14 Courtesy Paul Bieringer, NCAR, STAR, LLC Aedes/Dengue Risk Mapping System 14

15 Results: # of Infected Female Ae. aegypti, JANAPRMARFEB MAYAUGJULJUN SEPDECNOVOCT Courtesy Paul Bieringer, NCAR, STAR, LLC Infected egg-laying female Ae. aegypti

16 16 Courtesy Paul Bieringer, NCAR, STAR, LLC Results: # of Infected Female Ae. aegypti, 2013 Infected egg-laying females

17 Aedes aegypti, dengue and humans 17

18 Household Survey in Key West, FL, 2012 Methods: 400 parcels randomly selected in Key West and Stock Island Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices survey Pupal collections concurrent with household surveys (Hayden et al. 2015, AJTMH) 18

19 In the past 2 months, have you seen (or heard) any dengue prevention materials? 66% (Hayden et al. 2015, AJTMH) 19

20 Household survey: Do you know of any diseases that are transmitted by mosquitoes in the Keys? Dengue West Nile virus MalariaNoneOther 20 Percentage of “Yes” responses (Hayden et al. 2015, AJTMH)

21 How likely is it that you or a family member will get dengue in the next five years? (Hayden et al. 2015, AJTMH) 21 Percentage of total responses

22 Results – Ae. aegypti indicators 5.9% Key West households had at least one Ae. aegypti pupa 1.6 (Key West) containers with water per house 22 (Hayden et al. 2015, AJTMH)

23 Conclusions Meteorological variables modulate the abundance of the vector mosquito Ae. aegypti and dengue risk. This knowledge can be used to develop surveillance systems to inform public health, or to project climate change impacts on dengue. However, even with accurate weather-based predictions of dengue risk, without properly developed behavioral interventions, few humans will likely be aware of the risk. The involvement of the social scientists throughout the conception and execution of such projects is imperative to ensure that climate-based predictions will benefit society. 23


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