Presentation on theme: "Scenarios for a One Planet Economy in Europe"— Presentation transcript:
1Scenarios for a One Planet Economy in Europe Stuart Bond WWF-UK
2EvidenceBuilding on the premise that no single indicator is able to comprehensively monitor progress towards sustainability, the OPEN:EU project has defined a ‘footprint family’ suite of indicators to track human pressure on the planet from multiple angles. The OPEN:EU project has calculated theimpact of our carbon, ecological and water footprints for every European country shown in the graphs alongside.
5The Challenge AheadAs our consumption of resources outweighs any increases in resource efficiency, and is well beyond our planet’s ability to regenerate them or assimilate our waste, we need to develop new economic models to rapidly bring the human economy back within carrying capacity of the planet.Currently, the European economy is using nearly three times more ecological assets than those available. This situation cannot continue indefinitely. Action is needed to start to reverse the condition. This amounts to a 3-4% reduction in ecological impact year on year over the next 40 years.5
6What are scenarios?Scenarios can be defined as ‘plausible and often simplified descriptions of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships. (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005) Thus a scenario consists of both the end-state and of the path by which this is reached.
7OPEN: EU Scenario Process Using established methodology by UNEPDeveloped in a two day workshop in September 2010Three stage processClarifying the purpose and structure of the scenario exerciseLaying the foundation for the scenarios – creating a scenario frameworkDeveloping the narratives and policy settingsA final stage (in development) will model the scenarios with the EUREAPA tool
9Defining the scenario characteristics Clever and CaringFast ForwardBreaking PointSlow MotionKeyassumptionsQuality-driven mindset towards developmentDynamic technological innovationQuantity-driven mindset towards developmentTechnological stagnationKey featuresPeople have voluntarily become more socially responsible and environmentally aware in their lifestyles and act less selfishlyPlanned obsolescence of technology has been replaced by planned durability and reuseEnergy infrastructure is largely decentralised and flexible.Competition has largely been replaced by cooperationAggressive policies to stay within the boundaries of a OPE despite ongoing growth focus and to deal with global distributional issuesGlobal production zoningMix of regulation, taxation and innovation delivered massive efficiency gains, decarbonisation of power sector and shift to renewable electricity use for transport and heatingEuropean society is strongly divided, a large gap exists between rich and poorThe costs of new technologies did not fall rapidly enough and new technologies were not deployed quickly enough to avoid energy shortagesScarcity of resources leads to global resource conflictsShareholder profits dominate over stakeholder valuesNearly every aspect of life is eventually regulated by the state to address spiralling consumptionPrices are strong drivers towards resource efficiency and sufficiencyCollaboration and knowledge sharing are more important forces than competition in businessDynamic social innovation increases human capabilities, welfare and environmental sustainabilityCulture of repair and reuse, reinforcing a strong circular economyHolistic approach to education: self-awareness, environmental awareness, spiritual and community values play a key part
10Main policy interventions Defining the scenario characteristicsClever and CaringFast ForwardBreaking PointSlow MotionMain policy interventionsEconomy: Environmental pricing reformLabour: guaranteed minimum "living" wage; mandated phased-in limits on maximum paid weekly working hoursResources: footprint tax, advanced labelling, household waste measuresEnergy: advanced fossil-fuel power plants are successfully deployed along with a large-scale roll-out of renewables; strong carbon pricing and energy efficiency schemesTrade: Extra-EU investment in low carbon development; global benefit-maximising trade policies aimed at high impact trade sectors; GMO food import banEconomy: focus on spurring strong competition for eco-innovationLabour: guaranteed minimum “living” wage across the EUResources: Personal resource and emissions allowances , footprint taxEnergy: Carbon pricing, smart metering, ban on conventional vehiclesTrade: preferential trade with countries with the lowest footprint intensityEconomy: shift in the tax burden from labour to resourcesWelfare: strong measures to control population growthLabour: Progressive income taxation to curtail excessive demand and provide funds for R&D investment.Resources: Personal resource and emissions allowances , footprint tax, meat tax; strong measures to foster “reduce, reuse, recycle”Energy: highest carbon prices of all scenarios and aggressive “at the pump” petrol taxesTrade: strong restrictionsEconomy: transition to a beyond-GDP model, helped by OPE indicatorsLabour: guaranteed minimum “living” wage; limits on weekly working hours; 2 years of community serviceEnergy: carbon tax replaces cap and trade; phase out of inefficient appliancesAgriculture: Measures to achieve 95% organic farming / permaculture productionTrade: fuel import policy, GMO food import ban
15ConclusionsThere are likely to be different pathways to a sustainable future, which have quite different implications for societySome scenarios may be more stable than othersThe issues must be considered in an integrated wayTradeoffs are likely to be involvedBehavioural change and social innovation is needed alongside technological innovation and policies for industrial transformation