Presentation on theme: "Deep Value Israel Partnership Newmont Mining (NEM) Going for the gold Guy Shaham DVIP Capital, LP 4 Steimatsky St. Tel Aviv Tel: +972-3-6037484"— Presentation transcript:
Deep Value Israel Partnership Newmont Mining (NEM) Going for the gold Guy Shaham DVIP Capital, LP 4 Steimatsky St. Tel Aviv Tel:
This presentation is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of Guy Shaham of DVIP, LP. Any views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest. This presentations does not constitute an offer for or advice about any investment product. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Nothing contained herein constitutes a representation, nor a solicitation for the purchase or sale of commodities or securities and therefore no information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any commodities or securities mentioned herein. Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial, legal and investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.
The Fundamentals The value of Newmont Mining is based on the difference between the cost of Production and the market price for gold The demand for gold is twice the mine supply Historically mining stocks have returned the rise in the price of gold itself This means that if the gold price doubles then the mining shares will return 3X-6X
Supply and Demand in 2013 Demand – at least 4350 of net imports to the East (=countries outside US/Europe, mainly Asia) Mine supply of 2188 tons available to meet net imports = 2866 global output – 431 tons from China – 247 tons from Russia that are not exported Other supply – 930 tons – from the ETFs – only 1800 tons left in ETFs
Supply and Demand in 2013
Chinese Gold Demand Source: Koos Jansen - In Gold We Trust - gold-demand-418-mt-ytd-west-in-deny
Demand in 2013 Greater China (China +Hong Kong) is taking the entire mine supply. The rest of the East net imports another 2000 tons. Greater China went from buying 25% of the global mine supply in 2010 to buying 100% in 2013 In the East buying gold is part of the culture – they see gold as a better form of money and savings than national currencies
Supply in 2013 The available supply from inventories in the West (US/Europe) is very tight and rapidly dwindling Germany asked the US Federal Reserve for 300 tons back of the 1500 tons stored with the Fed in NY, were told will take 8 years and even then got only 5 tons of recast bars back. ABN Amro and Rabobank in Holland defaulted on gold savings accounts and halted withdrawal in physical, allowing only cash (Euro) withdrawals
Supply in 2013 Every known supply that we have data on in the West has been decreasing rapidly The GLD ETF decreased from 1330 tons at the beginning of 2013 to 790 at the end COMEX Registered stocks decreased from 100 tons to 15 tons during the year The United Kingdom net exported 1425 tons Some mines have shut down due to their costs being higher than the market price
What is the Fair Price of gold? The formula above was used to determine the price of gold in the 1944 Bretton Woods that set up the Post World War II Monetary System According to the above formula the price of gold should be above $12,000 Source: James Turk,
Gold Money Index (yearly) $10 $30 $100 $300 $1,000 $3,000 $10,000 Actual Price Fair Price Log Scale Source: James Turk,
Why is the Fair Price rising? True Money Supply (=Bank Checking and Savings Accounts) has risen in the USA from $2.5 to $10.5 Trillion in last 13 years The growth in money supply is greater than 10% a year and is accelerating The amount of above-ground gold is growing at 1.8% annualy To keep the same ratio between money supply and gold, the price of gold has to rise 8% a year
US True Money Supply Until 2013 Source: Alisdair MacLeod,
Bottom Line on the Price of Gold In the space of 3-5 years, the price of gold must rise rapidly due to: – The vacuuming of inventories in the West by the East, leading to rivers of gold flowing from New York and London to China and the East. At some point the inventories will be depleted. – The increasing money supply of national currencies ($, EUR, etc.) is 10% a year which raises the Fair Price of gold.
Who is investing in gold and miners? George Soros Ray Dalio Seth Klarman Kyle Bass Bill Gross Tom Kaplan David Einhorn John Paulson JP Morgan – went from being short 25% of COMEX to long 25% of COMEX Goldman Sachs – buying lots of GLD Central Banks of many Creditor Nations – China, Russia, Korea, …
Why Newmont Mining? Newmont has annual output of 5 Million oz. All-in costs of $1300/oz. At $2300/oz., gross profit is $1000 Net Profit after 30% taxes - $700/oz. - $3.5B With P/E of 10 we get Market Cap of $35B Current Market Cap of $12B Profit of 200% in 3 years
Why Newmont Mining? Geographical diversification mainly in safe political jurisdictions 35% USA 19% Peru 31% Australia 13% Ghana 88 Million ounces of reserves
Why Newmont Mining? Debt/Equity Ratio 0.66 Price/Net Tangible Book Value Ratio 1.2 Share price was $72 in 2011 when price of gold was $1920, now $25 with price of gold at $1300. Returning to that price will lead to 200% profit. 4% dividend yield
5 Year Revenue + Income YEARSALESTOTAL NET INCOME Bil-2.46 Bil Bil1.81 Bil Bil0.36 Bil Bil2.28 Bil Bil1.30 Bil Year Cash Flow from Operations ($B)
Bottom Line The price of gold must rise due to East insatiable thirst for gold and dwindling supplies in West. When Inventories are depleted, a much higher price will balance supply and demand Newmont is a large company with good leverage to price of gold The downside is limited – the mines are producing, safe jurisdictions, can weather a downward spike in gold price.
Thank you Guy Shaham DVIP Capital, LP 4 Steimatsky St. Tel Aviv Tel: