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Cole-Turk: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Risk-Taking Rebel A. Cole DePaul University Chicago, IL USA Rima Turk Ariss Lebanese American University.

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Presentation on theme: "Cole-Turk: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Risk-Taking Rebel A. Cole DePaul University Chicago, IL USA Rima Turk Ariss Lebanese American University."— Presentation transcript:

1 Cole-Turk: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Risk-Taking Rebel A. Cole DePaul University Chicago, IL USA Rima Turk Ariss Lebanese American University Beirut, Lebanon

2 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Summary In this study, we examine bank operating risk, financial risk and profitability at 1,468 banks in 99 emerging-market countries over the period. In this study, we examine bank operating risk, financial risk and profitability at 1,468 banks in 99 emerging-market countries over the period. We find that banks take on more portfolio risk (allocating significantly more of their assets to loans) where: We find that banks take on more portfolio risk (allocating significantly more of their assets to loans) where: They enjoy English rather than French or Socialist legal origin.They enjoy English rather than French or Socialist legal origin. Enforcement of debt contracts is more efficient.Enforcement of debt contracts is more efficient. Banks enjoy fewer restrictions on their activities.Banks enjoy fewer restrictions on their activities. Creditors’ rights are weakerCreditors’ rights are weaker The ownership share of the controlling shareholder is larger.The ownership share of the controlling shareholder is larger.

3 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Summary We find that banks take on more financial risk (holding significantly less equity as a percentage of assets) where: We find that banks take on more financial risk (holding significantly less equity as a percentage of assets) where: They enjoy English rather than French or Socialist legal origin.They enjoy English rather than French or Socialist legal origin. Creditors’ rights are stronger.Creditors’ rights are stronger. The largest shareholder is not the State..The largest shareholder is not the State..

4 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Summary Finally, we find that banks are much more profitable (as measured by return on assets) where: Finally, we find that banks are much more profitable (as measured by return on assets) where: Banks enjoy English rather than French or Socialist legal origin.Banks enjoy English rather than French or Socialist legal origin. Creditors’ rights are stronger.Creditors’ rights are stronger. Banks face more restrictions on their activities.Banks face more restrictions on their activities.

5 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Summary Our primary contribution to the literature is new evidence from bank-level data of a bank-lending channel by which better legal protection leads to more credit, and, consequently, better financial development. Our primary contribution to the literature is new evidence from bank-level data of a bank-lending channel by which better legal protection leads to more credit, and, consequently, better financial development. With better creditor protection, bankers increase the portion of their asset portfolios allocated to risky loans. With better creditor protection, bankers increase the portion of their asset portfolios allocated to risky loans. In aggregate, this should lead to higher levels of private sector credit, which the “finance and growth” literature has shown is positively related to economic growth. In aggregate, this should lead to higher levels of private sector credit, which the “finance and growth” literature has shown is positively related to economic growth.

6 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Summary We also contribute to the growing literature on determinants of bank risk-taking (Acharya, Amihud and Litov 2008; John, Litov, Yeung 2008; Laeven and Levine 2008). We also contribute to the growing literature on determinants of bank risk-taking (Acharya, Amihud and Litov 2008; John, Litov, Yeung 2008; Laeven and Levine 2008). Here, we provide new firm-level evidence that banks take on more risk when their interests are better protected by the judiciary. Here, we provide new firm-level evidence that banks take on more risk when their interests are better protected by the judiciary.

7 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Background: Law, Finance and Growth Our study is based upon the “law and finance” literature as well as the “finance and growth literature.” Our study is based upon the “law and finance” literature as well as the “finance and growth literature.” We expect that a bank will allocate more of its asset portfolio to loans when it enjoys better legal protection and more efficient enforcement of contracts. We expect that a bank will allocate more of its asset portfolio to loans when it enjoys better legal protection and more efficient enforcement of contracts. Greater bank lending should lead to higher economic growth. Greater bank lending should lead to higher economic growth.

8 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Background: “Law and Finance” “Law and Finance” literature: essentially begins with LLSV (1998 JPE) article “Law and Finance” “Law and Finance” literature: essentially begins with LLSV (1998 JPE) article “Law and Finance” Premise: English common law provides superior protection to investors and creditors as compared to civil law, especially French civil law. Premise: English common law provides superior protection to investors and creditors as compared to civil law, especially French civil law. Finding: Countries with English legal origin enjoy better developed capital markets than do countries of other legal origins. Finding: Countries with English legal origin enjoy better developed capital markets than do countries of other legal origins. Others have challenged LLSV: is it legal origin or is it simply English culture/heritage? Others have challenged LLSV: is it legal origin or is it simply English culture/heritage?

9 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Background: “Law and Finance” LLSV make important distinctions between: LLSV make important distinctions between: Investor protection and creditor protectionInvestor protection and creditor protection You can protect equity holders at the expense of debt holders, and visa versa. You can protect equity holders at the expense of debt holders, and visa versa. Legal rights and legal enforcement.Legal rights and legal enforcement. You can have strong laws but they provide little protection without enforcement. You can have strong laws but they provide little protection without enforcement.

10 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Background: “Law and Finance” Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (2003 JFE) “Law, Endowments and Finance.” Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (2003 JFE) “Law, Endowments and Finance.” Financial development as measured by the amount of private-sector credit (scaled by GDP) is greater in countries of English legal origin than in countries of French legal origin. Financial development as measured by the amount of private-sector credit (scaled by GDP) is greater in countries of English legal origin than in countries of French legal origin.

11 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Background: “Law and Finance” Djankov et al. (2003 QJE) “Courts”: Djankov et al. (2003 QJE) “Courts”: Develop measures of enforcement efficiency Develop measures of enforcement efficiency How long does it take to collect on a bounced check?How long does it take to collect on a bounced check? 60 days in New Zealand, 645 days in Italy 60 days in New Zealand, 645 days in Italy How long does it take to evict a delinquent tenant?How long does it take to evict a delinquent tenant? 49 days in U.S., 660 days in Bulgaria 49 days in U.S., 660 days in Bulgaria Findings: Findings: Efficiency is greater in countries of English legal origin.Efficiency is greater in countries of English legal origin. Efficiency is associated with higher survey measures of the quality of justice in a country.Efficiency is associated with higher survey measures of the quality of justice in a country.

12 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Background: “Law and Finance” Djankov, McLiesh and Shleifer (2007 JFE) “Private Credit”: Djankov, McLiesh and Shleifer (2007 JFE) “Private Credit”: Revise and expand the earlier measure of legal enforcement:Revise and expand the earlier measure of legal enforcement: How long does it take to collect on a debt equal to half of a country’s GDP per capita?How long does it take to collect on a debt equal to half of a country’s GDP per capita? Find that private sector credit (scaled by GDP) is higher in countries with stronger creditor’s rights and more efficient enforcement in developed, but not developing, countries.Find that private sector credit (scaled by GDP) is higher in countries with stronger creditor’s rights and more efficient enforcement in developed, but not developing, countries.

13 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Background: “Law and Finance” Qian and Strahan (2007 JF): Qian and Strahan (2007 JF): Examine how creditors’ rights and enforcement efficiency (as measured by collecting on a bounced check) affect terms of loan contracts (amount granted, rate, maturity) in 43 countries. Examine how creditors’ rights and enforcement efficiency (as measured by collecting on a bounced check) affect terms of loan contracts (amount granted, rate, maturity) in 43 countries. Findings: Findings: better legal protection of creditor rights is associated with better terms of credit.better legal protection of creditor rights is associated with better terms of credit. More efficient enforcement is associated with better terms of credit.More efficient enforcement is associated with better terms of credit.

14 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Background: “Law and Finance” John, Litov and Yeung (2008 JF) “Corporate Governance and Risk-Taking”: John, Litov and Yeung (2008 JF) “Corporate Governance and Risk-Taking”: Examine how differences in governance impact risk-taking and growth of industrial companies in 38 countries from Examine how differences in governance impact risk-taking and growth of industrial companies in 38 countries from Find that companies that enjoy better legal protection take on more risk, and that firms taking on more risk grow faster. Find that companies that enjoy better legal protection take on more risk, and that firms taking on more risk grow faster.

15 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Background: “Law and Finance” Acharya, Amihud and Litov (2008 working paper) “Creditor Rights and Corporate Risk-Taking”: Acharya, Amihud and Litov (2008 working paper) “Creditor Rights and Corporate Risk-Taking”: Propose a “dark side” to strong creditors rights: they induce firms to engage in risk-reducing investmentsPropose a “dark side” to strong creditors rights: they induce firms to engage in risk-reducing investments Shareholders want to avoid inefficient liquidation of assets. Shareholders want to avoid inefficient liquidation of assets. Managers want to preserve their private benefits of control. Managers want to preserve their private benefits of control. Finding: firms in countries with strong creditors rights engage in more diversifying mergers, reduce operating risk as measured by Std. Dev. of ROAFinding: firms in countries with strong creditors rights engage in more diversifying mergers, reduce operating risk as measured by Std. Dev. of ROA

16 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Background: “Finance and Growth” Levine (1999 JFI) Levine (1999 JFI) Financial Institutions are better developed in countries with better legal protection Financial Institutions are better developed in countries with better legal protection Portion of Financial Institution development (private sector credit scaled by GDP) explained by legal protection is positively related to economic growth. Portion of Financial Institution development (private sector credit scaled by GDP) explained by legal protection is positively related to economic growth.

17 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Research Question At the firm level, rather than at the country level, how do lenders respond to differences in governance regimes? (With exception of Qian and Strahan, all of these previous studies are at the country level rather than at the firm level) At the firm level, rather than at the country level, how do lenders respond to differences in governance regimes? (With exception of Qian and Strahan, all of these previous studies are at the country level rather than at the firm level) Specifically, how do banks in emerging countries respond to differences in legal origin, creditors rights, and efficiency of contract enforcement? Specifically, how do banks in emerging countries respond to differences in legal origin, creditors rights, and efficiency of contract enforcement?

18 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Hypotheses Risk-taking behavior of banks is affected by a country’s legal tradition, creditor protection, and prevailing institutions ( such as more “openness in banking practices”). Risk-taking behavior of banks is affected by a country’s legal tradition, creditor protection, and prevailing institutions ( such as more “openness in banking practices”). The superior legal protection and enforcement available from the institutions in countries of English legal origin encourages banks: The superior legal protection and enforcement available from the institutions in countries of English legal origin encourages banks: to take on more operating risk (i.e. extend more loans)to take on more operating risk (i.e. extend more loans) to take on more financial risk (i.e., hold less capital).to take on more financial risk (i.e., hold less capital). To the extent that they increase their overall level of risk, we also should observe higher levels of returns. To the extent that they increase their overall level of risk, we also should observe higher levels of returns.

19 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Data Bank-level data over the period , Bank-level data over the period , 7,374 bank-year observations on 1,468 banks located in 99 emerging-market countries from 9 world regions (Latin America, East Asia, Eastern, Northern, Central and Southern Europe, MENA and GCC). (Source: BankScope).7,374 bank-year observations on 1,468 banks located in 99 emerging-market countries from 9 world regions (Latin America, East Asia, Eastern, Northern, Central and Southern Europe, MENA and GCC). (Source: BankScope). Financials:Financials: Total Assets, Total Equity, Total Loans, Net Income Total Assets, Total Equity, Total Loans, Net Income Ownership:Ownership: Percentage, type of owner (Domestic Private, Foreign Private, State) Percentage, type of owner (Domestic Private, Foreign Private, State)

20 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Data Legal Origin: Identifies the legal origin of the company law or commercial code of each country (English, French, Socialist). (Source: Djankov et al. 2007). Legal Origin: Identifies the legal origin of the company law or commercial code of each country (English, French, Socialist). (Source: Djankov et al. 2007). GDP per capita: commonly used as a control of the level of economic development in a country. (Source: IFS). GDP per capita: commonly used as a control of the level of economic development in a country. (Source: IFS).

21 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Data Banking Activity Restrictions: an indicator of relative openness of banking & financial system with a higher score indicating more restrictions on banking. (Source: Heritage Foundation). Banking Activity Restrictions: an indicator of relative openness of banking & financial system with a higher score indicating more restrictions on banking. (Source: Heritage Foundation).

22 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Data Creditors’ Rights : Index is based upon four separate rights (Source: Djankov et al. 2007, but first used on a smaller set of countries by LLSV 1998): Creditors’ Rights : Index is based upon four separate rights (Source: Djankov et al. 2007, but first used on a smaller set of countries by LLSV 1998): 1. 1.Existence of restrictions, such as creditor consent, when a debtor files for reorganization. 2.A 2.Ability to secured creditors to seize collateral after a reorganization petition is approved (no automatic stay on ability to seize collateral) Secured creditors are paid first out of the proceeds of liquidating a bankrupt firm Responsibility for running the business during the reorganization falls upon an administrator, and not management, i.e., management is replaced.

23 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Data Legal Formalism: An estimate of the number of days necessary to collect an unpaid debt equal to 50% of the country’s GDP per capita,) Source: Djankov et al Legal Formalism: An estimate of the number of days necessary to collect an unpaid debt equal to 50% of the country’s GDP per capita,) Source: Djankov et al Higher values indicate greater “procedural formalism” and greater inefficiency in judicial enforcement.Higher values indicate greater “procedural formalism” and greater inefficiency in judicial enforcement. Conversely, lower values indicate greater judicial efficiency.Conversely, lower values indicate greater judicial efficiency.

24 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Methodology We merge all data sets together and: We merge all data sets together and: calculate univariate statisticscalculate univariate statistics conduct random-effects regressions. (Note: As pointed out by LLSV, we cannot conduct fixed-effects regressions because legal origin and creditors’ rights are constant across our time series.)conduct random-effects regressions. (Note: As pointed out by LLSV, we cannot conduct fixed-effects regressions because legal origin and creditors’ rights are constant across our time series.) Univariate statistics: Univariate statistics: We split our sample into groups of high and low levels of governance indices, and conduct simple t-tests for difference in means of bank credit risk exposure, capitalization level and profitability.We split our sample into groups of high and low levels of governance indices, and conduct simple t-tests for difference in means of bank credit risk exposure, capitalization level and profitability. Idea is to provide some broad evidence on the importance of legal origin and creditor protection on bank conditions and performance.Idea is to provide some broad evidence on the importance of legal origin and creditor protection on bank conditions and performance.

25 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Univariate Results

26 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Univariate Results

27 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Multivariate Regressions Y i,t = β X j + δ C j + η Z j,t + ε i,t Y i,t measures bank operating risk-taking (total loans to total assets), financial risk (total equity to total assets), or profitability (net income to total assets or to total equity) for bank i during year t; Y i,t measures bank operating risk-taking (total loans to total assets), financial risk (total equity to total assets), or profitability (net income to total assets or to total equity) for bank i during year t; X j are dummy variables describing the legal origin of country j; X j are dummy variables describing the legal origin of country j; C j are structural/governance variables for country j; C j are structural/governance variables for country j; Z j,t are controls for the level of economic development for country j; Z j,t are controls for the level of economic development for country j; ε i,t is a random error term for bank i during year t. ε i,t is a random error term for bank i during year t.

28 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Random-Effects Regression: Loan to Assets

29 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Random-Effects Regression: Equity to Assets

30 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Random-Effects Regression: ROA

31 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Conclusions In this study, we extend the literature on “law and finance” by using firm-level data to analyze how lenders respond to differences in legal origin, creditors’ rights and legal formalism in the enforcement of debt contracts. In this study, we extend the literature on “law and finance” by using firm-level data to analyze how lenders respond to differences in legal origin, creditors’ rights and legal formalism in the enforcement of debt contracts. Using a random-effects model that controls for bank heterogeneity, we find that bankers allocate significantly higher portions of their assets to loans: Using a random-effects model that controls for bank heterogeneity, we find that bankers allocate significantly higher portions of their assets to loans: Where they enjoy English rather than French or Socialist legal origin.Where they enjoy English rather than French or Socialist legal origin. Where enforcement of debt contracts is more efficient.Where enforcement of debt contracts is more efficient. Where banks enjoy fewer restrictions on their operations.Where banks enjoy fewer restrictions on their operations. Where the ownership share of the controlling shareholder is larger.Where the ownership share of the controlling shareholder is larger.

32 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Conclusions We also find that banks hold less capital per dollar of assets: We also find that banks hold less capital per dollar of assets: Where they enjoy more financial freedomWhere they enjoy more financial freedom Where creditors’ rights are stronger.Where creditors’ rights are stronger. Where banks are larger in asset size.Where banks are larger in asset size. Where the controlling owner is not the State.Where the controlling owner is not the State.

33 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Conclusions And we find that banks are more profitable as measured by ROA: And we find that banks are more profitable as measured by ROA: Where they enjoy English rather than French or Socialist legal origin.Where they enjoy English rather than French or Socialist legal origin. Where creditors rights are stronger.Where creditors rights are stronger. Where they enjoy less banking freedom.Where they enjoy less banking freedom. Where banks are larger in asset size.Where banks are larger in asset size.

34 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Conclusions In total, these results suggest that bankers increase both operating risk and financial risk when they enjoy superior creditor protection.In total, these results suggest that bankers increase both operating risk and financial risk when they enjoy superior creditor protection. Previous studies have shown that more private- sector credit leads to higher growth.Previous studies have shown that more private- sector credit leads to higher growth.

35 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Conclusions These results document one channel by which legal protection leads to financial sector development, which has been documented at the country level by numerous researchers. These results document one channel by which legal protection leads to financial sector development, which has been documented at the country level by numerous researchers. With better legal protection, lenders increase the portion of their asset portfolio allocated to loans. With better legal protection, lenders increase the portion of their asset portfolio allocated to loans. Countries with inefficient enforcement should be able to increase private sector credit and, therefore, economic growth by improving their enforcement mechanisms, which should lead their bankers to make more loans. Countries with inefficient enforcement should be able to increase private sector credit and, therefore, economic growth by improving their enforcement mechanisms, which should lead their bankers to make more loans.

36 © 2008 Cole-Turk Ariss: Legal Origin, Creditors’ Rights and Bank Lending Directions For Further Research Do the greater operating/financial risks that are substituted for expropriation risk lead to more financial fragility of a country’s banking system? Do the greater operating/financial risks that are substituted for expropriation risk lead to more financial fragility of a country’s banking system? Do these results hold for developed countries as well as developing countries? Do these results hold for developed countries as well as developing countries? How are different categories of loans affected, e.g., unsecured vs. secured; or C&I vs. Consumer vs RE? (We will need better data from Bankscope or other sources.) How are different categories of loans affected, e.g., unsecured vs. secured; or C&I vs. Consumer vs RE? (We will need better data from Bankscope or other sources.)


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