Presentation on theme: "1 MH-19: The Cold War & The Nuclear Era. 2 The Cold War & The Nuclear Era: Strategic Overview Post world war II divisions: a world divided –US & Western."— Presentation transcript:
2 The Cold War & The Nuclear Era: Strategic Overview Post world war II divisions: a world divided –US & Western Europe verses Soviets & Eastern Euro Satellites Key differences: major conflicting interests=> –Competing Geo-strategic & Ideological interests: Ideological, Political, economic, & social conflict Played out through indirect military confrontations i.e. Crises & regional conflicts: –Berlin blockade; Taiwan Straits => Quemoy & Matsu –Korean War; Bay of Pigs & Cuban Missile Crisis; –Vietnam War; Middle East Wars; –Afghanistan invasion & CIA/SOF covert support; –KAL shoot down - too name a few
3 Underlying Threat All above crises & conflicts eclipsed by what potential threat? –Atomic then later nuclear weapon escalation! And...possibly the destruction of western civilization Nukes shaped and limited nature of all CW conflict: –Affected almost all major international security issues –After Aug ’49 => Soviets also had the Atomic bomb –Significance? The US lost its ?______________ monopoly
4 Post-Cuban Missile Crisis After Cuban Missile Crisis: – USSR sped up Nuke Development & missile programs (never again back down from weakness to US) By 1969 => Soviets had reached “parity” Significance? –(US strategic ?____________ required in view of parity) US forced to adjust its National Security strategy –Policy & strategy shaped by these major considerations: Reality => both superpowers could destroy each other Both sides then avoided potential escalation of crisis/conflict Try to stay below Nuclear threshold at all costs!
5 Focus of Cold War Competition Result: => both avoided direct confrontation if possible –Conflict was consistently indirect –Almost always conducted thru proxies (Koreans, NVA, etc.) –But with direct or indirect $$$ or military support to the proxy –(Because direct engagement risked what?) –Potential escalation between two sides to ?_________ __________ Key focus of Cold War’s competition was where? –Central ?______________ –Overshadowed all other potential global conflict: –Highest priority: Germany and Berlin’s status especially –Next as close 2nd: the Division of Europe
Military Dimension of Competition Primary superpower military instruments for pursuit of their political & military security interests? ?_______ ______ __________ ___________ 6
7 Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)* Fortunately MAD* security policy & strategy worked? How many times has Nuclear weapons been used? –End of ?______________ (directly), and… –?_______ _______ Crisis (indirectly) So far as it has turned out => –What is the real value of so many Nuke weapons? –?______________ of USSR How has that recently changed? –Post 9/11: How can you deter ?_______ _______?
8 Atomic Arms Race Birth of the A-Bomb: –Role of Hitler & World War II –Einstein’s role => convincing FDR to act Manhattan Project: –MG Graves & Dr Oppenheimer –First detonation at Alamogordo NM- 16 Jul 1945 –Potential weapon to end WWII Truman’s role: –Tough decision? –Rationale & justification for dropping A-bomb? –700K potential causalities expected if US invades ?______________ Probably many more ?______________ civilians as well
9 Adapting to the A-Bomb As Cold War intensifies => impact: –Forces reassessment of National Security Strategy Key question: how to use A-Bomb against rising threat? –DOD’s 1st attempt to integrate bomb: Broiler (cities) –Other strategies followed based on Airpower & massive retaliation Soviets take hard line in East Europe & elsewhere: –Force adoption of communist governments throughout –Attempt to spread influence globally – even in West: Soviet refuse to leave oil rich Iran following end of WWII Support Greek communists take-over attempt US response: Containment Doctrine, Policy & Strategy
10 Policies, Strategies, Doctrines shaping US Cold War response Cold War became main arena for competition & conflict: Demonstrated through Truman’s adoption of: –Containment policy - thesis & rationale: Kennan’s Long Telegram: firm persistence – to contain Soviet expansion –Truman Doctrine: states official US position to contain communism –Marshall Plan: Economic means to achieve Containment’s end –NATO: Military instrument for Containment in Europe –NSC-68: Revised Military Strategy to achieve Containment –Korean War: (US surprised & unprepared) Provided major reason & push to rebuild conventional forces
11 Soviet’s Response Molotov Plan: (reaction to Marshall Plan) –Tied Eastern Europe to Moscow’s economy Berlin Blockade: –Failed Soviet response to growing western influence of Western Germany (Bizonia) –US responded with the Berlin Airlift- sometimes at great costs Warsaw Pact: –Military alliance of East Europe (NATO counterpart)
12 Increasing Reliance on the Bomb Policies & Strategies of Ike Administration: –Declared rejection of Truman’s “immoral” containment policy –Now pursued a “Roll Back” of Soviet gains in Eastern Europe –Required a new & more effective National Security Strategy Massive Retaliation –Ike’s new National Security Strategy: –Dulles: asserts nuclear retaliation is viable option for response to Communist aggression: At any level: strategic or tactical New term enters strategic lexicon: –Brinkmanship (implication?) –Tensions rises as both sides assert willingness go to the brink of nuclear war –Nukes now employable weapon at lower tactical level SADM
13 New Look First Ike says we need a “New Look” at US National Security Strategy (translation?) –Bring current military force structure into compliance with new strategy New military strategy drives force structure: –Nuclear weapons now key to Ike’s new strategy –Conventional forces relegated to “trip wire” status Therefore: conventional forces no longer required: –Reality: Strategy justifies major cuts in defense budget –Which service benefits most from new strategy? –?______ ________: reaction of other armed services
14 Advances in Technology Numerous advances in weapons technology was led by USAF: –Strategic manned bomber (USAF B-52) Atomic => fusion bombs => thermo-nuclear weapons were refined: –Weapons with smaller to much greater nuclear yields also developed –Missiles were improved with advanced guidance & greater accuracy & range Other Services also made advances: –CVNs, A-5“Widow Maker,” SSN /SLBM –Army develops “Tactical Nukes”=> Honest John & Davy Crockett rockets, & 280 mm gun & smaller 155 mm rounds –NSA & Satellite recon/strategic Intel (photo & ELINT) –CIA sponsored U-2 & SR-71 spy aircraft A-5
15 US-Soviet Arms Race Soviets also made significant advances in Nuke weapons technology: –Gained their own A-Bomb in 1949 –Thermo-Nuclear weapon in 1953 –Soviet arsenal raised to 300-400 nuclear devices by 1955 Soviets built strategic aircraft delivery: –Badger, Bear, & in 1960s: Blinder –Soviets were able to mislead US Intelligence community & USAF on Soviet Bomber #s at Moscow air show – how? –US over reacted and reinforced false impression of “Bomber gap” myth SLBM Subs were also eventually built – (Golf, Hotel– surface launch missiles) –Yankee – submerged launch by 1968 Reality: Soviets concentrated on building missile delivery systems –No bomber gap- except in favor of US
16 Arms Race Continues As technology advanced => weapons became more lethal –Bigger & better & –(“More bang for the buck”) –Both sides incorporated new weapons into their strategy In turn adjusted strategy in reaction to foe’s new weapons –Also in reaction to other strategic & technical changes
17 The Defense Theorists During this period strategic thinkers developed theories –Most prominent among the civilian intellectuals: –Bernard Brodie: wrote The Absolute Weapon: –Laid down basis for Nuclear Deterrence strategy –“Thus far the chief purpose of our military establishment has been to win wars. From now on its chief purpose must be to avert them. It can have almost no other useful purpose." Defense Theorists’ Thesis: –Cost of retaliation too high for offensive strike –True value of Nukes rest with averting war –Dr Oppenheimer’s analogy: US & USSR are like: ” two scorpions in a bottle” New lexicon of strategic nuclear terminology: –Targeting: counter-value versus counterforce Other civilian military strategists w/significant impact: –Albert Wohlstetter & Herman Kahn (who disagreed with Brodie) –Both help shape US National Security Strategy for Cold War
18 Early Nuclear Threats Ike hinted he might use A-Bomb to end Korean War –Against whom? –North Koreans & China –Ike backed warning w/deployment of A-bombs to Okinawa –Appeared to work => settlement talks concluded soon after French requested US support to avoid disaster at Dien Bien Phu: –But Ike refused to send US troops or… –Deployment of Tactical Nukes Other crises where Nuclear weapons were considered: –Suez Canal Crisis of 1956: ( Khrushchev threatens Brits & French to back off) Alluded to “mushroom clouds” over London & Paris –Also during 1st Taiwan Strait Crisis (Quemoy-Matsu)* Ike made casual but significant remark to reporters: “Atomic bomb same as a bullet.”
19 Quemoy – Matsu Crisis Sept 1954: Chinese begin shelling Islands – why? –Nationalist Chinese staging on Islands & covert US SOF (UDT) activities Ike Administration reluctant to escalate crisis to war: –Ike sends Dulles to Taiwan to defuse crisis Compromises made w/Nationalists leadership: –Mutual Defense Treaty between US & Nationalist China –Implied condition: acceptance of status quo- significance? De facto 2 China policy now in effect –Red China viewed Mutual Defense Treaty as threat to its sovereignty
20 1st Taiwan Strait Crisis Ike prepared to use Nuclear weapons to end standoff if necessary: –Backs Dulles’ blatant “hint” to use Nukes with reply: “an Atom bomb is the same as a bullet” –Tactical low yield weapons prepared for use –Chinese conclude US not bluffing –back down May 1955: cease fire ended 1st Taiwan Strait crisis Potential role of US 7th Fleet blocking any landing attempt by Chinese to: –Ike well aware of Chinese Navy’s limitations Chinese Navy no match for US 7th Fleet patrolling Straits –Therefore Chinese invasion of Formosa unlikely
21 Strategic Parity & Flexible Response In 1960 JFK & Democrats came to power –JFK criticized Ike’s Security Strategy during his campaign –Conducts reassessment of Ike’s Massive Retaliation strategy Focus: Impact on European states supposedly defended by US Nukes US credibility to use Nuclear Weapons a major concern –Also Risk of escalation over non vital interests (in 3rd world) Need more realistic options for all levels of conflict (Vice doing nothing or all out Nuclear War) Result: US National Security Strategy revised (again): –Other “more flexible” lesser options to include: Diplomacy & Presence Covert action (CIA & special mission units) Counter-insurgency (SOF) Conventional Forces (buildup)
22 Force structure Changes Force structure modifications needed to conduct a more Flexible Response to Soviet aggression Conventional forces had to be significantly increased: –USN: doubled number of ships –USA: expanded from 11 to 16 infantry divisions –USAF: TACAIR increased to 23 squadrons Airlift expanded by 75% –Army Special Forces & Navy SEALs established Defense budget increased by $50B to pay for it Also expanded Nuclear arsenal –More target flexibility for nuclear attacks
23 Nuclear Strategy & MAD SECDEF McNamara’s expanded US Nuclear Strategy: –Counterforce vs. counter-value strategy? Example: ?________________ vs. ?______________ Aim: avoid all out nuclear war with enhanced US second strike capability: –US therefore to strike military targets as 1st priority Also expanded US Nuclear delivery options: –Integrated all 3 mediums of air, land, & sea –SIOP incorporated to avoid target duplication – Triad system developed for assured retaliation McNamara revised the Strategy for assured 2nd strike: –Assured destruction evolved to=> mutual assured destruction* *(After Soviet Union achieve parity with US)
24 Nuclear Arms Technology Nuclear Arms Technology advances would continue: –Innovations & strategic adjustments made through 1960s-90s: James Schlesinger: graduated response (“Tac-Nukes”) –Also incorporated by Pres. Carter in PD-59 (“countervailing”)* –*Graduated escalation from lowest level of required response Major US assumption by Carter Administration: –Soviets will play same game with US –(They declared they would not.) Pres. Reagan mistrusted Soviets especially during 1 st term: –Aggressively accelerated US arms development: –Trident SS & Missile, B-1 Bomber, Pershing II, & SDI –Result: Soviets conclude US embarked on arms race
25 US Intervention in Western Hemisphere One area of particular interest to US during Cold War was: LATAM Particularly where?
26 Cuba & Bay of Pigs - April 17, 1961 JFK approved CIA plan to invade Cuba –1400 Cuban exiles with US support wade ashore at Bay of Pigs Landing site was a last minute choice- How did it go? ?_________: ?_____ planning, OPSEC, Intel & execution –Strategic & Tactical surprise blown- Castro ready & waiting –No avenue for retreat if/when op goes bad (it did- very badly) JFK withdraws US CAS at 11th hour – disaster: –1189 out of 1400 invaders captured Impact on JFK’s Presidency? –JFK was ?_________ & ?_________ –Distrusts CIA & JCS (who signed off on plan) CIA Director Allen Dulles is fired JFK vows it will be different next time
27 Cuban Missile Crisis – October 1962 US & USSR came closest to direct confrontation when: –Khrushchev attempted to emplace missiles in Cuba: Soviets deployed 36 MRBM & 24 IRBM into Cuba –US spy plane (U-2) detects & CIA confirms/informs Whitehouse Why did Khrushchev risk this situation? –What were Khrushchev’s motives? –Offset US ?_________ superiority –Redress growing ?_________ to Russian homeland: US growing Nuclear arms imbalance with Soviets=> sparks their concern McNamara’s counter-force strategy –Required missile buildup=> which Soviets view in terms of arms race
28 Additional Motives & JFK’s Response Khrushchev’s additional motives for Cuban Missiles included: –Deter US from another invasion of Cuba –Perhaps: force a breakthrough on Berlin stalemate –Domestic benefits: distract attention from bad harvest –Solidify Soviet global Communist leadership (over China) Rising ideological competitor to Soviets JFK’s reaction? –US Geo-strategic interests (missiles ?___ ______ miles away) –Also personal test of JFK’s leadership –JFK convenes Executive Committee Makes national televised address: –JFK demands immediate removal: –Issues stern warning to Soviets “Any nuclear attack from Cuba…” –Places US military on full alert (SEAL Team-2 locked & loaded) –Orders contingency plans & finally orders blockade
29 Khrushchev’s response Note: The threat of Nuclear exchange never closer –Even closer than originally thought – why? –?_________ release to local commander authorized by Soviets Start of WWIII left to a General under attack! Soviets reluctantly back down from direct confrontation with US Long term impact of Soviet response to crisis on USSR? –Khrushchev ousted Oct’64 by ?_________ –Soviets accelerate Nuclear arms build-up –Aim: parity by end of decade (Attained by late 1969/early 1970) What might have happened if Khrushchev had not backed down?
30 Nuclear Arms Proliferation & Arms Control Cuban Missile Crisis was a wake-up call for both sides –Brink of mutual destruction sobered each into negotiations –JFK made a conciliatory speech shortly after: “We all inhabit this small planet together…” –Khrushchev also responded positively –Both sides searched for ways to avoid future crisis Another major concern was spread of Nuclear technology –Britain, France, then China gained Nuclear capability –Not long after Israel, then India & Pakistan (NK & Iran next?) –Concerns motivated search to limit further proliferation Arms Control initiatives & talks became more attractive: –Test Ban Treaty’63 & Non-proliferation Treaty’67 –Later SALT I & II => START (with others following)
31 Assessment Nuclear Weapons radically affected US during Cold War: –Shaped US National Security Strategy from then on until 1990s –Also determined in large part military Force Structure Following WWII US owned small monopoly of A-Bombs: –Also enjoyed largest $$$ (50%) & industrial growth in world –But it greatly feared Soviet expansion & communism As Soviets continued to expand power & influence –Strident rhetoric & Spread of communism was major US concern –Result: Kennan’s Long Telegram => Truman Doctrine –Basis of containment => National Security strategy for Cold War As Soviets gained Nuclear Weapons => adjustments made –US supplements strategy with deterrence as well
32 Assessment- 2 Throughout Cold War: Containment & Deterrence => –basis of US National Security policy & strategy: Truman: Containment Ike: massive retaliation- also New Look & Roll Back JFK: Flexible Response Following Cuban Missile Crisis: –USSR accelerated its nuclear program => parity with US (1970) –US adopted assured destruction => MAD (Soviet Parity w/US) By 1970s => nuclear technology rapidly advanced: –Began to threaten delicate balance of terror –Result: arm limitations sought to control escalation –Impact of Reagan’s SDI: (further destabilizing => arms race) Nuclear weapons impact on global war? –Incentive to avoid: crisis, escalation & direct confrontation –How might that have changed since 9/11/2001? Deterrence against who or what?
34 George Kennan & Origins of Containment Significance & impact of Kennan’s Long Telegram: –Provides rationale for more confrontational US approach –Assumes Soviet hostility is “inevitable & immutable” toward West –Soviets must justify their Totalitarian system to their people– how? –Soviet leaders point to outside threat posed by the West as the primary reason for repressive measures Kennan urged US to abandon & replace accommodation policy –Asserted that West must contain Soviet global expansionism –Stressed steady & deliberate manner –An edited version was published in Foreign Affairs
35 Marshall Plan Marshall Plan is seen as economic dimension to Truman Doctrine & Containment Policy & Strategy –It had significant impact on international affairs Plan’s major goal & objectives: –Rebuild Europe –$106 Billion expended over 4 years (in Fiscal year 2006 dollars) –($$$ amount in red bars on map) –Eliminate root conditions contributing to growth of Communism What was the Soviet’s reaction?
36 Military Dimension of Competition Primary superpower military instruments for pursuit of their political & military security interests? –NATO vs. Warsaw Pact =>
38 Key Measures To Block Soviet Expansion Key measures taken to block Soviet expansion to West: –Br/US establish Bizonia- fusing their two zones together –Start economic reforms within Bizonia (Common currency) –Prepare for Marshall Plan participation –Draft West German constitution (w/o Soviet input) How do Soviets react?
39 Soviet Reaction: Berlin Blockade Soviets close all road traffic into Berlin –USSR concern of potential new German threat: US economic links & influence on Germany –Action: block ground access & supplies to Berlin; Truman’s reaction: Berlin Airlift; –Successful re-supply operation- establishes “air bridge” to Berlin- sometimes at great cost –Truman also deploys 60 Strategic bombers to Britain: Implied threat to Soviets? Major propaganda benefit for West – why? –Soviet response to negative publicity? –Impact on western attitudes toward USSR? –Result: Reunification becomes non-starter for 4 decades Germany remains divided into 2 states for duration of Cold War
40 Arms Race Soviets also made significant advances in weapons technology: –Gained own A-Bomb in 1949 & Thermo-Nuke weapon in 1953 Strategic aircraft delivery: –Badger, Bear, & Backfire SLBM Subs (Golf, Hotel– surface launch missiles) –Yankee SSBN by 1968 Missile delivery systems –(Bigger the better) –Strategic Rocket Forces (Main service of Soviets)
41 Cuban Missile Crisis Background: –Khrushchev attempts to emplace missiles in Cuba: Deploys 36 MRBM & 24 IRBM in Cuba –US intelligence detects & confirms (U-2)=> informs Whitehouse Khrushchev’s motives: –Offset US Nuclear superiority –Redress growing threat to Russian homeland: US growing Nuclear arms imbalance with Soviets=> sparks their concern McNamara’s counter-force strategy –Required missile buildup=> which Soviets view in terms of arms race
42 Additional Motives & JFK’s Response Additional motives for Cuban Missiles included: –Deter US from another invasion of Cuba –Perhaps: force a breakthrough on Berlin stalemate –Domestic benefits: distract attention from bad harvest –Solidify Soviet global Communist leadership (over China) Rising ideological competitor to Soviets JFK’s reaction? No Way! Why? –US Geo-strategic interests –Also personal test of JFK’s leadership –Convenes Executive Committee Makes national address: –JFK demands immediate removal: –Issues stern warning to Soviets –Places US military on full alert, orders contingency plans & finally blockade
43 Khrushchev’s response Note: threat of Nuclear exchange never closer –Even closer than originally thought (recent info) –Tactical release to local commander authorized by Soviets Soviets reluctantly back down from direct confrontation with US Long term impact of Soviet response to crisis: –Khrushchev ousted Oct’64 by Brezhnev –Soviets accelerate Nuclear arms build-up –Aim: parity by end of decade (attained by early 1970)