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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. 3.2 Exponential and Logistic Modeling

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 2 What you’ll learn about Constant Percentage Rate and Exponential Functions Exponential Growth and Decay Models Using Regression to Model Population Other Logistic Models … and why Exponential functions model many types of unrestricted growth; logistic functions model restricted growth, including the spread of disease and the spread of rumors.

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 3 Constant Percentage Rate Suppose that a population is changing at a constant percentage rate r, where r is the percent rate of change expressed in decimal form. Then the population follows the pattern shown.

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 4 Exponential Population Model

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 5 Example Finding Growth and Decay Rates

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 6 Example Finding Growth and Decay Rates

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 7 Example Finding an Exponential Function Determine the exponential function with initial value = 10, increasing at a rate of 5% per year.

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 8 Example Finding an Exponential Function Determine the exponential function with initial value = 10, increasing at a rate of 5% per year.

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 9 Example Modeling Bacteria Growth

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 10 Example Modeling Bacteria Growth

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 11 Example Modeling U.S. Population Using Exponential Regression Use the population data in the table to predict the population for the year 2000. Compare with the actual 2000 population of approximately 281 million.

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 12 Example Modeling U.S. Population Using Exponential Regression Let x = 0 represent 1890, x = 1 represent 1900, and so on. The year 2000 is represented by x = 11. Create a scatter plot of the data following the steps below.

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 13 Example Modeling U.S. Population Using Exponential Regression Enter the data into the statistical memory of your grapher.

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 14 Example Modeling U.S. Population Using Exponential Regression Set an appropriate window for the data, letting x correspond to the year and y to the population (in millions). Note that the year 1980 corresponds to x = 9.

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 15 Example Modeling U.S. Population Using Exponential Regression Make a scatter plot.

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 16 Example Modeling U.S. Population Using Exponential Regression Choose the ExpReg option from your grapher’s regression menu, using L 1 for the x-values and L 2 as y-values.

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 17 Example Modeling U.S. Population Using Exponential Regression The regression equation is f(x) = 66.99(1.15 x ).

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 18 Example Modeling U.S. Population Using Exponential Regression Graph both the scatter plot and the regression equation. Use the CALC-VALUE option to find f (11).

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 19 Example Modeling U.S. Population Using Exponential Regression The year 2000 is represented by x =11, and f (11) = 311.66. Interpret This exponential model estimates the 2000 population to be 311.66 million, an overestimate of approximately 31 million.

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 20 Maximum Sustainable Population Exponential growth is unrestricted, but population growth often is not. For many populations, the growth begins exponentially, but eventually slows and approaches a limit to growth called the maximum sustainable population.

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 21 Example Modeling a Rumor

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 22 Example Modeling a Rumor

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 23 Example Modeling a Rumor

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 24 Quick Review

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Copyright © 2011 Pearson, Inc. Slide 3.2 - 25 Quick Review Solutions

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