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The Academy of Armed Forces of GEN Milan Rastislav Štefánik Agent-Based Models in a Changing Environment Prof. Miroslav ŽÁK, Ph.D Jozef ULIAN, Ph.D

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The Armed Forces Academy of GEN Milan Rastislav Štefánik in Liptovský Mikuláš SLOVAKIA

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Proposed Methodolody: 3 Level Structure of Adaptive Agent-Based Model at Tactical Level, Agents of Contingency Planning Team on the spot, A Conversion of Information on Stability Threats to Subjective Probability as part of D-P-N, A Selection of Threat (Risks) to Stability. AGENT-BASED MODELS IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

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STABILITY OPERATION CONTINGENCY PLANNING SECTION CPC 1 CPC 2 CPC k CPT 1 OT 1 CPT 3 OT 3 CPT 2 OT 2 CPT 5 OT 5 CPT 4 OT 4 CPTmOTm Proposed Formal Structure at a SO 2nd level 1 st level 3rd level

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m 3 2 1 probability of instability reliability of nformation probability of instability reliability of nformation Agents of CPT of Proposed Model

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Agents of CPT: M = {a 1, a 2,..., a m } – set of sources of information, N = {b 1, b 2,..., b n } – a set of possible threats (risks), R = {c 1, c 2,..., a r } – a set of possible stability measures (stages). As criterion of reasons of instability we can choose probability of its creation based on possible threat identified by agents. We can mark such criterion by the formula: f j (p i,j ) = p i, j. z i,for j = 1,..., N where, p i, j – probability of creation of instability identified by an agent and as a consequence of its reason j, z i - reliability (weight) of source of information i. Formula for Criterion of CPT Agent Information

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Verbal (qualitative) expressions Probability excluded almost excluded little possibility less probable nearly probable uncertainly probably enough probably more probably almost certainly certainly 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 Conversion of verbal expressions to numerical values

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M\Nb 1 b2b2... b n-1 bnbn a1a1 p 11 p 12 P 1n-1 p 1n a2a2 p 21 p 22 P 2n-1 p 2n... a m-1 p m-11 p m-12 P m-1n- 1 P m-1n amam p m1 p m2 p mn-1 p mn Matrix of Subjective Probability f j (p i, j ) = p i, j. z i,for j = 1,..., N

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Suppose that risks are of different significance (weight). After that, a value of criterion is determined by the formula: F j = f j. v j Criterion of Possible Threats

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To judge a stability of a stage or system we can use an aspiration level method, To determine a certain level of acceptable risk - aspire level, If some of values F j overstep the level, stability of the system is threatened, necessary to take measures to fix the stage. The Probality of Stability

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CONCLUSION It is the one of possible approaches. It based on a conversion of verbal (qualitative) expressions to quantitive ones. It is expected it will improve realism of simulation systems. Added value of the article is proposed the multi-agent model of CPT which processes information on threat in stability operation.

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