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Studies of columnar observations and model outputs Brian Mapes University of Miami with thanks to many data producers and sharers.

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Presentation on theme: "Studies of columnar observations and model outputs Brian Mapes University of Miami with thanks to many data producers and sharers."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Studies of columnar observations and model outputs Brian Mapes University of Miami with thanks to many data producers and sharers

3 Looking under the hood of monthly mean data “points” Time sections: f(submonthly time x pressure) –a vast, rich domain –complementary to typical climate model examination space (lat x lon x months) –Natural domain for observations –Sensible domain for physical processes

4 Shortcomings Free-running climate model time axis not directly comparable to observations –statistical comparisons of course Models have climate-regime offsets in space, biasing comparisons at a fixed geo-location –non-mean statistics that is Submonthly variations (dynamics-driven) a poor proxy for climate sensitivity (thermo-driven) –tough luck, we do what we can Eulerian viewpoint a perverse view of weather –you’re free to leave

5 inescapable programming tedium COARE obs KWAJEX obs LBA obs EPIC, JASMINE KWAJEX CRM NCAR CAM GFDL AM2 NASA GMAO (super-CAM soon?) cross-forced SCMs SCAM2 driven by CAM SCAM driven by AM2 Common data format, variables, names, units, flux sign conventions, etc. standard raw plots standard stat plots inescapable programming tedium

6 Datasets COARE obs KWAJEX obs LBA obs EPIC, JASMINE (more: ARM? etc?) KWAJEX 3D CRM NCAR CAM GFDL AM2 NASA GMAO (more: CAM-SP?) cross-forced SCMs SCAM2 driven by CAM SCAM driven by AM2 All obs are from warm-wet tropics so far - what I have & know best Cloud obs rare: satellite TOA rad in ~GCM-grid areas, but cloud profiles at only a few points (cloud radar) the most GCM-comparable cloud dataset Driving the whole exercise -- an AMIP, at the very least weird experiments, not done real carefully so far. Future?

7 What variables? COARE obs KWAJEX obs LBA obs EPIC, JASMINE KWAJEX CRM NCAR CAM GFDL AM2 NASA GMAO (super-CAM soon?) cross-forced SCMs SCAM2 driven by CAM SCAM driven by AM2 TOA radiation and cloud forcing cloud fraction and condensed water content (p) humidity (p) vertical motion (p) physical tendencies heating and drying (p) rain CLIMATE IMPACT SCALAR LINK TO HYD CYC structure within tropo- sphere

8 What plots? COARE IFA obs KWAJEX obs LBA obs EPIC, JASMINE KWAJEX CRM NCAR CAM GFDL AM2 NASA GMAO (super-CAM soon?) cross-forced SCMs SCAM2 driven by CAM SCAM driven by AM2 CRF: LW+, SW-, net ~0 [obs needclear-sky assumptions] rain RH cld frac [ crude f(RH) here ] Q1, CWC (no obs) wind divergence and vertical grid % note: net <0 at rainiest times IFA OBS

9 What stats? COARE IFA obs KWAJEX obs LBA obs EPIC, JASMINE KWAJEX CRM NCAR CAM GFDL AM2 NASA GMAO (super-CAM soon?) cross-forced SCMs SCAM2 driven by CAM SCAM driven by AM2 Lag regressions I: scalars vs. reference variable (here, ref = qbudget-derived IFA rain) reflected SW reduced OLR net (here, other obs. estimates models, other rain types) TOA rad up: Other rain vars:

10 What stats? COARE IFA obs KWAJEX obs LBA obs EPIC, JASMINE KWAJEX CRM NCAR CAM GFDL AM2 NASA GMAO (super-CAM soon?) cross-forced SCMs SCAM2 driven by CAM SCAM driven by AM2 regressions vs. IFA rainfall ~1 mm/h x 1d ~24 mm rain net longwave atm heating longwave atm heating ~ 15% of latent heating ocean shading* ~ -20% of latent heat in rain ~ -20% of latent heat in rain * straight regression incl. nocturnal zeroes - not really right approach ~6am diurnal rain peak

11 What stats? COARE obs KWAJEX obs LBA obs EPIC, JASMINE KWAJEX CRM NCAR CAM GFDL AM2 NASA GMAO (super-CAM soon?) cross-forced SCMs SCAM2 driven by CAM SCAM driven by AM2 II. lag-height regressions of profile fields vs. surface rain ~1/2 day timescale at a point 44 km radius “MCS-resolving”

12 What stats? COARE IFA obs KWAJEX obs LBA obs EPIC, JASMINE KWAJEX CRM NCAR CAM GFDL AM2 NASA GMAO (super-CAM soon?) cross-forced SCMs SCAM2 driven by CAM SCAM driven by AM2 regressions vs. surface rainfall SYNOPTIC SCALE (IFA) multiscale (incl. several-day timescales) but no cloud profile observations

13 What should areal cloud statistics look like? KWAJEX 3D CRM thanks Marat TOA: obs TOA: obs-forced CRM 4-8 units, vertical up to 16, vertical condensate can’t blow away

14 What stats? COARE IFA obs KWAJEX obs LBA obs EPIC, JASMINE KWAJEX CRM NCAR CAM - IFA GFDL AM2 - IFA NASA GMAO (super-CAM soon?) cross-forced SCMs SCAM2 driven by CAM SCAM driven by AM2 regressions vs. surface rainfall - AM2 layers upward development time jitters sometimes TOA about balanced, long time scales zigzag layers july - 10 mm/d

15 What stats? COARE IFA obs KWAJEX obs LBA obs EPIC, JASMINE KWAJEX CRM NCAR CAM - IFA GFDL AM2 - IFA NASA GMAO (super-CAM soon?) cross-forced SCMs SCAM2 driven by CAM SCAM driven by AM2 AM2 - a different month slow upward development TOA closely balanced, long time scale zigzag layers nov - 11 mm/d

16 What stats? COARE IFA obs KWAJEX obs LBA obs EPIC, JASMINE KWAJEX CRM NCAR CAM - IFA GFDL AM2 NASA GMAO (super-CAM soon?) cross-forced SCMs SCAM2 driven by CAM SCAM driven by AM2 regressions vs. surface rainfall - CAM 3-day waves vertical thanks to ‘convective’ fraction but… CRF not well linked to rain events …condensed water not coherent in vertical jan - 7 mm/d

17 What stats? COARE IFA obs KWAJEX obs LBA obs EPIC, JASMINE KWAJEX CRM NCAR CAM - IFA GFDL AM2 - IFA GMAO 140E/8N July (super-CAM soon?) cross-forced SCMs SCAM2 driven by CAM SCAM driven by AM2 regressions vs. surface rainfall - GMAO upward development, zigzag layers a bit stark but about like IFA 2xKwajCRM ice content freezing level schism

18 rain event met fields - obs <-KWX IFA->

19 rain event met fields - CAM-IFA <-Jan Dec->

20 rain event met fields - 3 models CAM AM2 GMAO

21 But are these brief rain-event fluctuations a Climate Process? hypothesis Divergence profile in tropical rain events linked to profile of divergent winds linked to profile of total winds? ( -> coupling issues…climate by any standard) ? Let’s look

22 CAM GMAO Top- stats of div regression sections (lag-height) Bottom- stats of total wind speed (time-height) each curve shows 1 month of data AM2 IFA mean stdev w/in 6-day lag section mean stdev All 3 GCMs have unrealistic surface-intensified div fluctuations but no near- surface enhancement of wind fluctuations KWAJEX is 3rd line; LBA 4 CAM- jangly wind profiles 1000 vs 850 not right GMAO- midlevel swoop

23 wind profile results hypothesis too simplistic BUT –Systematic windspeed profile differences from observations are clear at low levels!

24 Regressions wrt TOA CRF “events”? Weird idea: submonthly TOA CRF has ~no feedback to the weather that causes it, so there’s less expectation of a repeatable “life cycle” Proxy for climate sensitivities? –? Maybe, if tau << {days, years, decades, etc.} ? Anyway, try it (but I have no obs yet) –use 24h smoothing to kill diurnal cycle

25 24h-smoothed TOA -CRF as base time series -- CAM 85W 20S CRF<0, big slow changes SWup>0 Whiter w/clouds at 975 not 925

26 Another month at 85W 20S -- CAM Complicated mixture of events SWup>0 CRF<0 faster changes, polymodal pdf?

27 AM2 - 85W 20S whiteness varies little; regression structure not stable steady -30ish CRF (Q1 data missing) PBL-based clouds rise to ~550mb here !? Minghua’s AM2 “midlevel” cloud (ISCCP)

28 Cross-forced SCMs (CAM AM2) V. advection of SCM fields by prescribed vertical velocity from other GCM H. advection prescribed (non-interactive) Look at LBA (Amazon) just for fun

29 LBA obs (via Minghua’s shop), & GCMs AM2CAMLBA obs (warning: clear sky not careful) (sorry: Q1 missing)

30 AM2CAMLBA obs

31 LBA models AM2 CAM SCAM driven by AM2 omega Cloud style CAMlike

32 LBA models AM2 CAM SCAM2 driven by CAM omega Cloud style AM2 ish

33 Future plans - team efforts? COARE obs KWAJEX obs LBA obs EPIC, JASMINE KWAJEX CRM NCAR CAM GFDL AM2 NASA GMAO (super-CAM soon?) cross-forced SCMs SCAM2 driven by CAM SCAM driven by AM2 Common data format, variables, names, units, sign conventions standard raw plots standard stat plots clickable from Bony index plot co-ra.com/~bem more to come MORE DATA in (p,t) space SCMs! CRMs! EXPERIMENTS! OBS! other people


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