# 11-May-15Created by Mr. Lafferty1 Statistics www.mathsrevision.com Probability Line Calculating Simple Probability National 4 EF 1.3e.

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11-May-15Created by Mr. Lafferty1 Statistics www.mathsrevision.com Probability Line Calculating Simple Probability National 4 EF 1.3e

11-May-15Created by Mr.Lafferty Maths Dept Starter Questions www.mathsrevision.com Expand and simplify 4( 3 + 2x) – 3(x + 1) National 4 EF 1.3e

11-May-15Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept Probability Learning Intention Success Criteria 1.Understand the probability line. 1.To understand probability in terms of the number line. 2.Calculate simply probabilities. www.mathsrevision.com National 4 EF 1.3e

Probability Likelihood Line www.mathsrevision.com 10.50 CertainEvensImpossible Not very likely Very likely Winning the Lottery School Holidays Baby Born A Boy Seeing a butterfly In July Go back in time 11-May-15Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept National 4 EF 1.3e

Probability Likelihood Line www.mathsrevision.com 10.50 CertainEvensImpossible Not very likely Very likely Everyone getting 100 % in test Homework Every week Toss a coin That land Heads It will Snow in winter Going without Food for a year. 11-May-15Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept National 4 EF 1.3e

11-May-15Created by Mr. Lafferty Maths Dept. Now try Ex Intro. Ch18 (page 214) www.mathsrevision.com Probability National 4 EF 1.3e

11-May-15Created by Mr.Lafferty Maths Dept Starter Questions www.mathsrevision.com Q1.Calculate 7 – 5 x 2 Q2.Calculate 9 8 5 Q3.Is this triangle right angled ? Explain National 4 EF 1.3e

11-May-15Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept Probability Learning Intention Success Criteria 1.Calculate simply probabilities. 1.To understand probability calculate simple probabilities. www.mathsrevision.com National 4 EF 1.3e

Probability www.mathsrevision.com To work out a probability P(A) = Probability is ALWAYS in the range 0 to 1 11-May-15Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept We can normally attach a value to the probability of an event happening. National 4 EF 1.3e

Probability Number Likelihood Line www.mathsrevision.com 10.50 CertainEvensImpossible 12354 7 68 0.10.20.30.40.60.70.80.9 Q. What is the chance of picking a number between 1 – 8 ? Q. What is the chance of picking a number that is even ? Q. What is the chance of picking the number 1 ? 8 8 = 1 4 8 = 0.5 1 8 = 0.125 P = P(E) = P(1) = 11-May-15Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept National 4 EF 1.3e

Probability Likelihood Line www.mathsrevision.com 10.50 CertainEvensImpossible Not very likely Very likely Q. What is the chance of picking a red card ? Q. What is the chance of picking a diamond ? Q. What is the chance of picking ace ? 52 = 0.5 13 52 = 0.25 4 52 = 0.08 26 0.10.20.30.40.60.70.80.9 P (Red) = P (D) = P (Ace) = 52 cards in a pack of cards 11-May-15Created by Mr Lafferty Maths Dept National 4 EF 1.3e

11-May-15Created by Mr. Lafferty Maths Dept. Now try Ex 1 Ch18 (page 215) www.mathsrevision.com Probability National 4 EF 1.3e

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