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Probability What is probability?

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Thumbtack Experiment Consider the following experiment: toss 10 thumbtacks up into the air and let them fall on a flat surface How many would you expect to land with the point straight up?

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Thumbtack Experiment Lets try the experiment –Toss 5 thumbtacks up and let them land. –Write down your individual data: how many landed with the point straight up? –Group data

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Thumbtack Experiment Based on our experiment…What is the probability that a randomly chosen thumbtack that is tossed up will land with the point side straight up? Experimental vs. Theoretical Is there a way to find the theoretical probability for this experiment?

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Dice Experiment Work with your elbow partner –One person rolls 2 dice –One person tallies the sum of the 2 dice Record your data on the poster Histogram

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Dice Experiment Based on our experiment…What is the probability that the sum of the 2 dice is –2? –5? –7? –11?

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Dice Experiment Experimental vs. Theoretical Is there a way to find the theoretical probabilities for this experiment? Equally Likely Outcomes Model –Sample Space of equally likely outcomes

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Dice Experiment

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Compute (theoretical) probabilities –Compare these results to our experimental probabilities

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M&M Experiment Dump out your bag of M&Ms Consider the experiment: an M&M is randomly selected from your pile of M&Ms What is the probability of selecting each of the available colors?

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M&M Experiment Compare your results with your table group members Now compute the probability of selecting each of the available colors for your table group Record your group data on the poster

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M&M Experiment The theoretical probabilities of obtaining each color from a bag of M&Ms are depicted in the following table: ColorProbability of that color Yellow0.14 Red0.13 Orange0.20 Brown0.13 Green0.16 Blue What is the probability of blue?

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M&M Experiment Make a prediction: How many of each color would be likely to be found in a bag of 50? 100? 250? 500? 1000?

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