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Probability What is probability?

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Thumbtack Experiment Consider the following experiment: toss 10 thumbtacks up into the air and let them fall on a flat surface How many would you expect to land with the point straight up?

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**Thumbtack Experiment Lets try the experiment**

Toss 5 thumbtacks up and let them land. Write down your individual data: how many landed with the point straight up? Group data

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Thumbtack Experiment Based on our experiment…What is the probability that a randomly chosen thumbtack that is tossed up will land with the point side straight up? Experimental vs. Theoretical Is there a way to find the theoretical probability for this experiment?

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**Dice Experiment Work with your elbow partner**

One person rolls 2 dice One person tallies the sum of the 2 dice Record your data on the poster Histogram

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Dice Experiment Based on our experiment…What is the probability that the sum of the 2 dice is 2? 5? 7? 11?

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**Dice Experiment Experimental vs. Theoretical**

Is there a way to find the theoretical probabilities for this experiment? Equally Likely Outcomes Model Sample Space of equally likely outcomes

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Dice Experiment

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**Dice Experiment Compute (theoretical) probabilities**

Compare these results to our experimental probabilities

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**M&M Experiment Dump out your bag of M&Ms**

Consider the experiment: an M&M is randomly selected from your pile of M&Ms What is the probability of selecting each of the available colors?

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**M&M Experiment Compare your results with your table group members**

Now compute the probability of selecting each of the available colors for your table group Record your group data on the poster

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M&M Experiment The theoretical probabilities of obtaining each color from a bag of M&Ms are depicted in the following table: Color Probability of that color Yellow 0.14 Red 0.13 Orange 0.20 Brown Green 0.16 Blue What is the probability of blue?

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M&M Experiment Make a prediction: How many of each color would be likely to be found in a bag of 50? 100? 250? 500? 1000?

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Probability Quizzes and Games Week of April 4-8, 2011 7.14.1: Relate theoretical probability to experimental results.

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