# MathScience Innovation Center Betsey Davis What is Probability? Chance or likelihood of an event Chance or likelihood of an event The probability of.

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MathScience Innovation Center Betsey Davis

What is Probability? Chance or likelihood of an event Chance or likelihood of an event The probability of an event occurring is equal to the ratio of desired outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes (sample space). The probability of an event occurring is equal to the ratio of desired outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes (sample space).

What is Probability? The probability of an event occurring can be represented as a ratio or the equivalent fraction, decimal, or percent. The probability of an event occurring can be represented as a ratio or the equivalent fraction, decimal, or percent.

What is Probability? A probability of 0 means __________________________ A probability of 0 means __________________________ A probability of 1 means A probability of 1 means____________________________ the event will never occur. the event will always occur.

What is the difference between theoretical and experimental Probability? Theoretical probability of an event is the expected probability and can be found with a formula. Theoretical probability of an event is the expected probability and can be found with a formula. Chances of tossing one coin and getting “heads” is: 1:2 ½.50 50%

What is the difference between theoretical and experimental Probability? The experimental probability of an event is determined by carrying out a simulation or an experiment. The experimental probability of an event is determined by carrying out a simulation or an experiment. The experimental probability = The experimental probability = the number of times the desired outcomes occur the number of times the desired outcomes occur the number of trials in the experiment the number of trials in the experiment

What is the Probability of getting “heads” on one coin toss? 1 : 2 1 : 2 ½.50.50 50% 50%

What is the Probability of getting “red” on one spin? 1: 4 1: 4 1/4 1/4.25.25 25 % 25 %

What is the Probability of getting “two” on one toss of one die? 1: 6 1: 6 1/6 1/6.166666 or.16.166666 or.16 17% 17%

What is the Probability of a tossed kiss landing upright?

How old are Hershey’s Kisses? 1. Less than 10 years 2. Between 10 and 50 years 3. Between 50 and 75 years 4. Over 75 and less than 100 5. Over 100 years 10 0 of 5

How old are Milk Chocolate Kisses?

Make a prediction Hypothesis Hypothesis What is the Probability of the kiss landing flat? What is the Probability of the kiss landing flat? What is the Probability of the kiss landing on a tilt? What is the Probability of the kiss landing on a tilt? Record your prediction. Record your prediction.

What was your prediction? The percent of the time I think the kisses will land flat, x, is: 10 1. 10 % or less 2. 10% < x < 20 % 3. 20% < x < 33.3 % 4. 33.3% < x < 50 % 5. 50% < x < 66.7 % 6. 66.7% < x < 75 % 7. 75% < x < 100 %

To gather data: Work with one partner: 10 kisses total Work with one partner: 10 kisses total Place all 10 kisses in one cup Place all 10 kisses in one cup Gently shake cup twice Gently shake cup twice Toss by spilling 2 inches from tabletop Toss by spilling 2 inches from tabletop Count flats and tilts Count flats and tilts Record Record Repeat 9 more times Repeat 9 more times Compute total Compute total Report your totals to me Report your totals to me

Our Class Data Our Class Data

Our conclusion based on class totals

Why are they named Kisses?

Are all kisses the same? Plain: milk chocolate Plain: milk chocolate Dark Chocolate Dark Chocolate Almond Almond Carmel Carmel

Toss Plain and 2 Other Kinds Milk Chocolate Milk Chocolate Type 1 Type 1 Type 2 Type 2 Milk Chocolate Milk Chocolate Type 2 Type 2 Type 3 Type 3 Milk Chocolate Milk Chocolate Type 1 Type 1 Type 3 Type 3

How old are Almond Kisses? 1. Less than 10 years 2. Between 10 and 50 years 3. Between 50 and 75 years 4. Over 75 and less than 100 5. Over 100 years Mean = 10 0 of 5

How old are Almond Kisses? Published in 2005

Dark Chocolate kisses were added in the year: 12345 10 1. 2003 2. 2001 3. 1997 4. 1993 5. 1985

How old are Dark Chocolate Kisses?

How many Hershey’s kisses are made each day? 1. 800 2. 8000 3. 80,000 4. 800,000 5. 8,000,000 6. 80,000,000 7. 8,000,000,000

? Hershey’s Kisses = 1 pound of chocolate 1. 6 2. 29 3. 48 4. 62 5. 99 10 0 of 5

Will different types of kisses land on their bases the same percent of the time? Examine your kisses Examine your kisses Notice differences Notice differences Using what you know about the plain milk chocolate kisses, make predictions for the other 2 kinds Using what you know about the plain milk chocolate kisses, make predictions for the other 2 kinds Record your predictions Record your predictions

Steps to collect data: Work with one partner: 20 kisses total Work with one partner: 20 kisses total Place all 20 kisses in one cup Place all 20 kisses in one cup Gently shake cup twice Gently shake cup twice Toss by spilling 2 inches from tabletop Toss by spilling 2 inches from tabletop Count flats of plain and flats of the other Count flats of plain and flats of the other Record Record Repeat 9 more times Repeat 9 more times Compute total Compute total Revise your conclusion Revise your conclusion

Move on to page 2: Work with one partner: 20 kisses total Work with one partner: 20 kisses total Place all 20 kisses in one cup Place all 20 kisses in one cup Gently shake cup twice Gently shake cup twice Toss by spilling 2 inches from tabletop Toss by spilling 2 inches from tabletop Count flats of plain and flats of the other Count flats of plain and flats of the other Record Record Repeat 9 more times Repeat 9 more times Compute total Compute total Revise your conclusion Revise your conclusion Report results by posting “POST IT” on our stem and leaf and by reporting to excel. Report results by posting “POST IT” on our stem and leaf and by reporting to excel.

Stem and Leaf Stem and Leaf012345

Kiss ables Advantage: less expense Disadvantage: no paper covering

What percent of Kissables will land flat? 1. 80% 2. 66% 3. 50% 4. 33% 5. 25% 6. 10% 12345

Ever heard of the Kissmobile?

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