Presentation on theme: "Environmental trends – Will tourism respond to environmental and energy pressures? 12th EUROPEAN TOURISM FORUM Tourism – a Force for Economic Growth, Social."— Presentation transcript:
1Environmental trends – Will tourism respond to environmental and energy pressures? 12th EUROPEAN TOURISM FORUM Tourism – a Force for Economic Growth, Social Change and Welfare October 2013 The Palace of the Grand Dukes of Lithuania, VilniusC. Michael HallDocent, University of Oulu, Finland; Visiting Professor, Linneaus University, Sweden & University of Eastern Finland; Professor, University of Canterbury, New Zealand
2The concept of sustainability in tourism is incredibly successful 2The concept of sustainability in tourism is incredibly successfulInnovation and diffusion of the concept over time- modern origins in late 1980s- From two academic papers in 1989 to >60 in 2009A dedicated journal, numerous dedicated texts and coursesWidespread adoption of the term in government at all scales, industry organisations, individual firms and non-government organisation policies and statementsIs has become a part of the lexicon of business and of governments, especially with respect to the policy context within which they operateHall, C.M. 2011, Policy learning and policy failure in sustainable tourism governance: From first and second to third order change? Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 19(4-5),
4Yet… tourism is less sustainable than ever 3Yet… tourism is less sustainable than everIn environmental terms:- More emissions in absolute terms- Greater resource use (energy, land use, water)Increased contribution to biodiversity loss / species introductionsBut then we keep being told… “Travel & Tourism accounts for 255 million jobs globally. At US$6 trillion (9% of GDP) the sector is a key driver for investment and economic growth” (WTTC, 5 June 2013).The growing contribution of tourism to environmental change while simultaneously being promoted as a means of economic growth suggests that sustainable tourism development is a significant policy problem. Maybe even a policy failure? As presently constituted tourism is not a form of green growth.“much tourism growth, as with much economic growth in general, is already uneconomic at the present margin as we currently measure it given that it is leading to a clear running down of natural capital”.Tourism is experiencing an enormous environmental subsidyHall, C.M. 2011, Policy learning and policy failure in sustainable tourism governance: From first and second to third order change? Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 19(4-5),Hall, C.M. 2010, Changing paradigms and global change: From sustainable to steady-state tourism. Tourism Recreation Research, 35(2),
5The sustainable tourism ‘standard model’ Hall 1995 in Hall, C.M. 2008, Tourism Planning, 2nd ed., Pearson.
6A more accurate sustainable tourism model THE ENVIRONMENT / NATURAL CAPITALHall 2008, Tourism Planning, 2nd ed., Pearson.
7A reallocation of natural capital from nature’s economy to human economy in the process of generating economic growth? (and social change and welfare?)Do efficiency improvements mean that we reduce the level of natural resource consumption and the level of environmental impact?KNatural capital allocated to wildlife / environmentGDPNatural capital allocated to human / tourism economy and society. Everything in the previous model of ‘balanced’ sustainable tourism fits in hereHall, C.M. 2010, Changing paradigms and global change: From sustainable to steady-state tourism. Tourism Recreation Research, 35(2),TIMESource: Adapted from Hall, 2010
8Tourism sector emissions and mitigation targets and forecasts •IEA (2009): Air travel almost quadruples between 2005 and 2050 with an average worldwide growth rate of 3.5% per year, but over 4% worldwide until 2025• IMO (2009): Absolute emissions from shipping will grow by 1.9–2.7% per year up to 2050• Boeing (2012): Growth in global aircraft fleet from in 2011 to by 2031; airline traffic in revenue passenger kilometres: 5% per year• Airbus (2012): Growth in revenue passenger kilometres by 150% between 2011 and 2031 (averaging 4.7% per year), with the global fleet of passenger aircraft growing from to in the same periodGössling et al Challenges of tourism in a low carbon economy, WIRES Climate Change, in print, available on lineSource: Gössling et al. 2013
9Emission Reduction Targets and Suggested Action in Aviation International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO)International Air Transport Association (IATA)Aviation Global Deal Group (AGD group)International Business Aviation Council (IBAC)IEA / OECDEmission projection and Reduction GoalImprovement in fuel efficiency of at least 2% per year until the year 2050-50% until 2050, stabilisation by 2020 (base year 2005)-50% to -80% by 2050, up to -20% by 2020• Carbon-neutral growth by 2020;• fuel efficiency as per ICAO• A reduction in its total CO2 emissions by 50% by 2050 relative to 2005.3 to 4-fold increase in emissions to 2050 in baseline scenario.• “Extremely challenging” Blue Shifts scenario still results in considerable emissions growth in 2050 over 2005GHG consideredCO2Suggested measuresBiofuels• technology• Improving operational efficiency• Building and using efficient infrastructure• Positive economic instruments to provide incentivesEnergy efficiency measuresAir traffic managementOpen and unlimited emission trading with other sectorsTechnology, Infrastructure and operator best practicesAlternative fuelsMarket based measuresIEA (International Energy Agency), Transport, energy and CO2: moving towards sustainability. 2009, International Energy Agency: Paris; ICAO. Climate Change: Action Plan [cited 2012 October 27]; Available from: ICAO. Flightpath to a Sustainable Future. The RIO +20 Global Biofuels Initiative [cited 2012 October 27]; Available from: IATA. IATA and the Environment [cited 2012 October 27]; Available from: Aviation Global Deal Group (AGD group). A sectoral approach to addressing international aviation emissions [cited 2012 December 22]; Available from: Business Aviation Council (BAC). Business Aviation Statement on Climate Change [cited 2013 January 5]; Available from:
10O dear, we forgot something… Three types of rebound effects are frequently identified in the literature.the direct rebound effect, which is manifested in increased demand for the same product or service. For example, the switch from a 6-litre to a 3-litre car may result in additional journeys being made in the 3-litre car.the indirect rebound effect, expressed in increased demand for different products or services. For example, the change from a 6-litre to a 3-litre car may result in consumers taking more holidays by air.the structural or macroeconomic rebound effect. For example, because more consumers drive 3-litre cars, overall demand for petrol is lower, causing relative prices to fall and creating an incentive for increased demand for energy-using products in other sectors.The level of a rebound effect is generally defined as the percentage of an efficiency-boosting measure/technology that is offset by a rise in demandThe rule of thumb:‘in the long term and on average, combined rebound effects of at least 50% must be assumed. In other words, energy efficiency improvements in an economic system will on average yield half the theoretical savings potential of efficiency technologies and measures’ (Santorius 2012).Santorius, T , Green Growth Unravelled How rebound effects baffle sustainability targets when the economy keeps growing. Heinrich Boell Foundation and Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Berlin, October
11How large?Barker et al. (2009) modeled the potential long-run rebound effects resulting from the global energy efficiency measures incorporated into the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report and estimated thatfor transport there would be a worldwide direct rebound of 9.1% in 2020 and 9.1% in 2030, and a macroeconomic rebound of 26.9% in 2020 and 43.1% in The total rebound effect for transport is 36.0% in 2020 and 52.2% in 2030.Residential/services buildings have an even higher estimated total rebound of 44.3% by 2020 and 60.6% for The estimated total global rebound effect on the IPCC’s] estimates is 31.5% of the projected energy savings potential by 2020, rising to 51.3% by 2030.If applied to tourism this means that by 2030 the impacts of energy-efficiencies on emissions reduction will potentially be more than halved and that the reduction in the total potential gains in energy efficiencies over the period to 2035 are cut by more than 35% - leading to a potential doubling of tourism emissions.Gössling, S., Scott, D., and C.M. Hall 2013, Challenges of tourism in a low-carbon economy. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, submitted.Hall, C.M., Scott, D., & Gössling, S. 2013, The primacy of climate change for sustainable international tourism, Sustainable Development, 21(2),
12The limits of containment Efficiency standards for appliances or production processes harbour the greatest risk of evoking rebound effects.Real income gains and falls in market prices that arise from efficiency increases can theoretically be absorbed by ecotaxes. However, this would require a complex taxation scheme with sector- and product-specific tax rates, which would be difficult to implement.In theory rebound effects cannot arise if resource use is limited by caps (absolute upper limits). However, unless caps are introduced globally, rebound effects can still occur via international trade and increased imports – including tourism.Santorius, T , Green Growth Unravelled How rebound effects baffle sustainability targets when the economy keeps growing. Heinrich Boell Foundation and Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Berlin, October; Jenkins, J., Nordhaus, T. and Shellenberger,M. (2011) Energy Emergence: Rebound and Backfire as Emergent Phenomena. Breakthrough Institute, Oakland; Hoffmann U. (2011) Some Reflections on Climate Change, Green Growth Illusions and Development Space, UNCTAD Discussion Paper 205. UNCTAD, Geneva.
13Efficiency and sufficiency in sustainable tourism development Same or increased personal travel demand. ‘Business as usual’. No fundamental change in destination choice or consumption choices: ‘Green Growth’ / ‘Green Economy’ Continued run down of natural capital if primary policy approachPRODUCER BEHAVIOURECO-EFFICIENCYMore productive use of materials and energy.PRODUCTIONEfficiencySUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT / STEADY-STATE TOURISMRestructure, RedistributeEXTERNALRegulation; Cost of energy; System change; Polluter paysINTERNALValue change; Ethical & social responsibilitiesDRIVERS FOR CHANGEIncreased product life spans Changed consumer behaviourRestructure socio-technical systemReduction in personal demand and distance travelled; reuse and recycle. Fundamental change in demand to emphasise ‘local’ destinations, short supply chains and reduce resource consumption and distance travelled: ‘Reorientation’ / ’Degrowth’ Recessionary if implemented in isolation from other measures.SufficiencySLOW / SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTIONChanged consumption patterns leading to reduced throughput of products and services and less energy.CONSUMPTIONCONSUMER BEHAVIOURSource: After Hall 2009
14Sustainable consumption policies ApproachScaleUnderstanding of decision-makingconsumption is…Tools to achieve sustainable consumptionDominant forms of governanceUtilitarian(consumer sovereignty; green economics)individualCognitive information processing on basis of rational utility-maximisationThe means for increasing utilityGreen labelling, tax incentives, pricing (including carbon trading), educationMarkets (marketization and privatization of state instruments)Social & psychological(Behavioural economics / green consumerism / ABC model)Response to psychological needs, behaviour and social contextsDominant paradigm of “ABC”: attitude, behaviour, and choiceSatisfier of psychological needs; cultural differentiator; marker of social meaning and identityNudging - making better choices through manipulating a consumer’s environmentSocial marketing to encourage behavioural change and promote sustainable lifestyles and behaviourNetworks (public-private partnerships)Systems of provision / Institutions(degrowth, steady-state tourism)Community, society, networkConstrained / shaped by socio-technical infrastructure and institutionsRoutine habit, inconspicuous rather than conspicuousShort-supply chains, local food, local tourismHierarchies (nation state and supranational institutions)Communities (public-private partnerships, communities)Hall, C.M ‘You can check out any time you like but you can never leave: Can ethical consumption in tourism ever be sustainable?’.For a summary of behavioural issues see Gössling, S., D. Scott, C., Michael Hall, J.-P. Ceron and Dubois, G Consumer behaviour and demand response of tourists to climate change. Annals of Tourism Research, 39(1):
15The value of utilising all approaches to governance: IATA airline online reporting and offsetting opportunities 2009 vs 2013SocialEnv.Tech.Infra.Oper.Econ.CalculatorBook.FFPsWorld 200938.4%29.5%28.1%20.5%19.1%14.2%9.4%3.5%EU41%36%32%30%26%17%2%World 201350.6%40.9%26.4%16.1%14.5%3.4%EU61%56%39%23%Derived from analysis of IATA member airline websites 2009 and 2013*Env. refers to Environmental, Tech. refers to Technology Improvements; Infra. refers to Infrastructure Developments; Oper. refers to Efficient Operations; Econ. refers to Economic Measures.*Book, refers to capacity to offset when booking; FFPs refers to Frequent Flyer Points
16Global ecological footprint and conceptualising growth and bio-physical capacities Hall, C.M. (2013), Tourism and green growth, Department of Geography, University of Oulu, 11 October
17Can we go beyond the first three letters of the alphabet? Need to engage in third-order policy learning by which some of the basic paradigms and assumptions are questioned with respect to tourism development. Beyond the dominant paradigm of “ABC”: attitude, behaviour, and choice to actually change systems of provision.Will tourism respond to environmental and energy pressures? Regulation has a vital role, along with consumer pressure and environmental and resource costs.In tourism governance far too much attention has been given to the assumption that a well-designed institution is “good” because it facilitates cooperation and networking rather actually focussing on the norms and values of institutional arrangements and their potential outcomes.What, after all, is the point of encouraging governance mechanisms such as partnerships, network development, self-regulation, codes of conduct and individual responsibility if they continue to have no practical effect on the sustainability of tourism and consumption?If the ethical value of responsible tourism by “individual choice” leads to increased emissions from lifestyle and travel actions and worsening environmental change then how ethical or responsible is it?