Presentation on theme: "3 Steps to Zero Emissions- Intelligent Grid, Electric Cars and Solar Energy Chris Dunstan Research Principal- Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS Presentation."— Presentation transcript:
3 Steps to Zero Emissions- Intelligent Grid, Electric Cars and Solar Energy Chris Dunstan Research Principal- Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS Presentation to ANZSES NSW 23 June 2009
Summary Intelligent Grid Research Program Network Investment: Bigger or smarter? Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap Electric Cars Solar Energy
e.g. permanent Arctic ice may disappear by 2030 Reduced ice albedo (reflectivity) = positive feedback
... the melting of Greenland ice cap may become unstoppable and raise global sea level by 7 metres
International Climate Science Congress ( Copenhagen March 2009) Key Messages : “1. Climatic trends: Recent observations show that greenhouse gas emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of the IPCC range of projections. Many key climate indicators are already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and economy have developed and thrived. These indicators include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, global ocean temperature, Arctic sea ice extent, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts. climatecongress.ku.dk/pdf/synthesisreport
Elements of Intelligent Grid Power Stations Transmission Distribution Customer Sensors, data collection and Automation: Predictive and “Self Healing” Distributed Energy: Peak Demand Management - DSR Energy Efficiency Distributed Generation Energy Storage Smart Meters, Time of Use pricing Real time displays Advanced Communications Electric Cars Transmission Data Collection and Automation Figure Source: Southern California Edison & CPUC Using information, communications and control technologies to integrate the electricity network with “distributed energy” resources.
Intelligent Grid Research Program 1: Control Methodology of DG 2: Market & Economic Modelling 3: Optimal Siting & Dispatch of DG 4: Instit Barriers, Stakeholder Engagement & Economic Modelling 5: I Grid Social Impacts 6: I Grid in New Housing Development 7: Operational Control & Energy Management Economic regulatory barriers & solutions DANCE Model: Avoidable Network Costs D-CODE Model: Costs of Distributed Energy CSIRO Institutional Barriers QUTUTS Curtin Uni UniSA Uni of Qld QUT Engagement: Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap 3-Year Collaborative Research (July June 2011) Engagement with industry, regulators, policy makers, etc. Aim: Aim: to facilitate major greenhouse gas emission reductions by integrating distributed energy technology with a more intelligent electricity network.
Networks and Climate Change More Climate Change More Greenhouse gas emissions More (fossil fuel) power generation More Network Capacity Electricity Supply Interruptions More Storms, Heatwaves, etc
Networks and Climate Change “$50 billion of further investment in national and local energy grids is necessary to meet Australia’s carbon reduction goals. If this doesn’t occur, we all face an increased risk of being left to sweat out decades of long hot summers. We know it is going to get warmer and we have to prepare for that – this last week has been a warning to us all – we need to act today to climate change proof our networks and to be climate change ready.” -Andrew Blyth, CEO Energy Networks Association, 2 February 2009, Canberra
Greenhouse Abatement Opportunities - USA “United States could reduce emissions by 31% to 46% by 2030”
Greenhouse Abatement Opportunities - Australia
D-CODE: Details and Cost of Distributed Energy NSW Case Study: Meeting NSW Electricity Needs to 2020 with lower costs and lower emissions
Scenarios for meeting the NSW power needs to 2020 Scenario 1 – COAL (approximates Owen Inquiry outcome) 1000 MW coal power station 2017 two 500 MW open cycle gas turbines in 2018 & 2019 Scenario 2 – GAS (~NEMMCO projections) combination of open cycle and combined cycle gas Scenario 3 - Cogeneration and Demand Side Response Scenario 4 - Energy efficiency and Demand Side Response Scenario 5 - Combined distributed energy energy efficiency, cogeneration, and demand side response, and Allows 1000 MW coal fired capacity retirement in 2014/15.
12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20, /092009/102010/ /122012/132013/142014/152015/ /172017/182018/ /20 CAPACITY (MW) Exisiting or planned capacity Demand side response Cogeneration Capacity needed for reliability Energy efficiency NSW capacity projections to 2020 with DE
$15 $17 $19 $21 $23 $25 $27 $29 $31 $33 $35 CoalGasCogen and DSREnergy efficiency and DSR Combined distributed energy Billion $ 2009 – Existing supply - variable cost Network capital - amortized cost New supply - amortized capital cost New supply - variable cost Mt CO 2 -e per year Million Tonnes CO2-e in 2020 Scenario cumulative costs & 2020 emissions
Energy efficiency, cogeneration, and Demand Side Response can meet capacity shortfall Not acting on DE will mean higher: –energy consumption, greenhouse emissions, network costs, generation costs, carbon abatement cost and consumer power bills
So, are we investing in Distributed Energy?
Australian Energy Regulator’s Network Pricing Decision ( ) $16.9 billion in Network Capital Expenditure ( ) –80% increase on the previous five years –$2,400 per person in NSW –$9.3 million per day For Energy Australia customers –Average network prices increase by 99% (nominal) –up to 172% for domestic customers –Average retail price to rise by ~40% (excl. CPRS cost) Little direct support for Distributed Energy
Distribution Network Capital Expenditure
Can we afford a much bigger grid and much smarter grid at the same time? Distribution Network Capital Expenditure
1  Energy Australia, Revised Regulatory Proposal and Interim Submission, January 2009, p. 190 Energy Australia Indicative Network Charges Network Prices to Rise (by up to 172%) (Real Retail Prices up: 51% for small consumers; 34% for large consumers)
Energy Consumption Forecast to fall (AER Determination, Fig. 6.2, p. 114)
Peak Demand Forecast to rise (2.7% per annum) AER Determination, Table 6.4
How to stimulate Distributed Energy investment?
DE Technology Assessment: Costs, Scale, Limitations Institutional Barriers What obstructs cost-effective DE? Status (current and progress) Defining Distributed Energy Energy Efficiency, Load Mgt, Distributed Generation Demand Forecasting Energy and Peak Load (NEMMCO) Policy Instruments Can institutional barriers be effectively overcome? Avoidable Network Costs (time and place) Potential (current and future) Policy Drivers Why do stakeholders care about DE? Research and Development Proposed Network Investment (time and place) (NSPs) Assumptions & Scenario Analysis Centralised Generation Costs, Scale, Limitations (NEM) Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap Roadmap Elements External Data External Process
Avoidable network costs
Network Capacity Required Sydney by 2012 >15MVA < -10MVA Avail. Capacity
Proposed Network Investment Sydney to 2012
Indicative Network Investment Deferral Value ($/MVA/yr) -Sydney to 2012
DE Technology Assessment: Costs, Scale, Limitations Institutional Barriers What obstructs cost-effective DE? Status (current and progress) Defining Distributed Energy Energy Efficiency, Load Mgt, Distributed Generation Demand Forecasting Energy and Peak Load (NEMMCO) Policy Instruments Can institutional barriers be effectively overcome? Avoidable Network Costs (time and place) Potential (current and future) Policy Drivers Why do stakeholders care about DE? Research and Development Proposed Network Investment (time and place) (NSPs) Assumptions & Scenario Analysis Social Decision Making: Political process; Policy and Market Design Optimisation & Outputs: Costs, Prices, Emissions Recommendations Centralised Generation Costs, Scale, Limitations (NEM) Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap Consumer Acceptance Will consumers accept DE? Roadmap Elements External Data External Process
Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Australia’s first PHEV (Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle)
1.Plug In >Bigger Battery >Socket & Charger to charge off electricity grid >Reduce greenhouse emissions –(if renewable powered) >Reduces urban pollution >Much lower running costs –(but high battery costs) What’s a Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)? >Has both petrol engine and electric motor and battery >Still runs on petrol only, but up to 50% more efficient –Engine does not idle, recovers braking energy, smaller capacity engine, runs engine at more optimal speed –Reduces reliance on oil (and imports) What’s a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)?
c More oil use Peak Oil Global Warming Conventional vehicle petrol fuel ~20% efficient Biofuel vehicle renewable fuel Competing land use, biodiversity, food security Electric vehicle (EV) electric fuel, ~80% efficient Limited range, Slow recharge Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) ~40% efficient Long range, quick refuel petrol fuel Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Electric & petrol fuel ~60% efficient Long range, quick refuel More greenhouse emissions Why PHEVs?
PHEV Greenhouse Gas Emissions Comparison of PHEV emissions charged from various power stations types (Year 2010, 19,300 km per year, 30km electric range) Source: EPRI Coal fired electricity Renewable electricity Conventional car
Fuel Cost Comparison (Conventional petrol car vs PHEV per day for typical 30km commute) Petrol ($1.40/l)
Actual one-off battery cost Fuel Cost Comparison (Conventional petrol car vs PHEV per day for typical 30km commute)
Petrol ($1.40/l) Estimated battery cost at production line volumes Fuel Cost Comparison (Conventional petrol car vs PHEV per day for typical 30km commute)
Air Cond. O/Peak Water heating ~8 kWh per day = ~60 km in PHEV Impact of PHEVs on Average Residential Power Demand (Summer Peak- NSW)
Air Cond. Water heating ~8 kWh per day = >60 km in PHEV PHEV charge - uncontrolled Impact of PHEVs on Average Residential Power Demand (Summer Peak- NSW)
Air Cond. Water heating ~8 kWh per day = ~60 km in PHEV PHEV charge -controlled Impact of PHEVs on Average Residential Power Demand (Summer Peak- NSW)
Air Cond. ~8 kWh per day of load removed
Average Residential Power Demand (Summer Peak- NSW) Air Cond. Vehicle to Grid load management (peak load reduced)
Australia’s first V2G (Vehicle to Grid) electric car
Solar? What does a Solar Feed in tariff look at from a Intelligent Grid perspective? 1.A Gross Tariff of at least 30cents/kWh fixed for the term of the tariff. 2.The term of the tariff should be at least 10 years from the date of installation. 3.If necessary, the term of the FiT should be reviewed, rather than the rate. 4.Eligibility should be open to all electricity consumers 5.Consumers receiving the FiT should be required to purchase power through a time of use tariff. 6.This time of use tariff should be based on “net metering”
What’s next Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap Forum 1: Brisbane April 09: Introduction Forum 2: Melbourne 14 July: Costs of Distributed Energy Forum 3: Sydney August 09: Avoidable Network Costs NSW Case Study Report release soon
Conclusions Smart Grids, Electric Cars and Solar PV are strongly complementary We are unlikely to be able to afford a much bigger grid and a much smarter grid at the same time We need to make investment in distributed energy as easy as investment in networks.