Presentation on theme: "1 1 TWV CBM Return On Investment. 2 Response to AMC CBM Summit Tasker Purpose: Provide AMC G-3 with the amount of time and resources required to conduct."— Presentation transcript:
2 Response to AMC CBM Summit Tasker Purpose: Provide AMC G-3 with the amount of time and resources required to conduct a valid test to determine a Return on Investment (ROI) for Tactical Wheeled Vehicles BLUF: Modest CBM data collection and analysis for trucks currently underway. Can augment and enhance those activities in support of a CBA/ROI study. Added Hardware estimates included Need CLOE Enablers in place to realize CBM “Plus”
3 TWV CBM Return On Investment The Tactical Wheeled Vehicle CBM Challenge: High Density, High Production Rates, Substantial Aging Legacy Fleet On-Hand1st ProductionLast ProductionCurrent Production On-Hand1st ProductionLast ProductionCurrent Production HMMWV141,0381984Funded thru FY131800/month HMMWV RECAP800/Month FMTV40,1281991Funded thru FY15800/month M939 FOV 26,99519821994N/A M800 FOV 413419631979N/A HEMTT13,7701982Funded thru FY 15 * HET Tractor 2,01219932003 NA PLS49921993Funded thru FY 13* M915 FOV72911978Funded thru FY 03100/month HEWATT/TFFT1162004Funded thru 094-6/month Combined monthly production 400 Total of Key fleets 209,347 (less M939, M800 FOV)
4 TWV CBM Return On Investment “ Ballpark” Business Case Example Baseline Costs for Maintaining Today’s Truck Fleet How much do we currently spend to maintain our trucks? Based on averaging 2006 & 2007 worldwide OSMIS data: VehicleQuantity*O&S Costs/yr HMMWV~119k~$583 M/yr FMTV~ 26k~$145 M/yr HEMTT~ 12k~$119 M/yr PLS ~ 5K M915~ 8K Hypothetically, how much could we save? Vehicle.5% 1% 2% 5% HMMWV $2.8M $5.8M $11.7M $29.2M FMTV $.75M $1.5M $ 2.9M $ 7.3M HEMTT $.60M $1.2M $ 2.4M $ 6.0M PLS M915 *Incl POL
5 TWV CBM Return On Investment ROM Estimate of CBM TV Fleet (FMTV, HEMTT, PLS, HETS, M915 and HMMWV) Option 1 Collect only existing vehicle data with simple data logger 209,347 @ $500/ea = $104.67M Option 2 “Smart” data logger to collect and preprocess existing data209,347 @ $1500/ea = $314.02M Option 3 “Smart” data logger plus low cost “motion pack” chassis sensor suite209,347 @ $3500/ea = $732.71M Option 4 Full vehicle computer to log, process, and link (IETM & SAMS-E) existing data209,347 @ $5000/ea = $1,046.73M Option 5 Vehicle computer plus low cost “motion pack” chassis sensor suite209,347 @ $7000/ea = $1,465.420M Option 6 Vehicle computer, low cost “motion pack”, plus GPS209,347 @ $9000/ea = $1,884.12M Option 7 “High end” engineering level computer, “motion pack”, GPS209,347 @ $20,000/ea = $4,186.94M
6 TWV CBM Return On Investment Simple ROI Calculation for TWV Fleet Based on the following: Fleet of 209,347 TWVs Sustainment costs of $1,007M/yr Option 3 @$3500/vehicle (smart data logger and low cost motion pack) CBM savings rate of 2% Yearly savings - 2%/yr x $1,007M = $20.12M/yr Hardware costs - 209,347 x $3500 = $732.71M ROI period- $732.71M / 20.12M/yr = 36.4 yr ROI period can increase or decrease significantly based on percent savings applied. This example does not include many other CBM enabling costs so the ROI period will definitely be longer or shorter when all costs are factored in.
7 TWV CBM Return On Investment ROM Estimate of CBM HW Costs Only for OIF/OEF FMTV Fleet ~ 4300 MTV/LMTVs in theatre Option 1 Collect only existing vehicle data with simple data logger 4300 @ $500/ea = $ 2.15M Option 2 “Smart” data logger to collect and preprocess existing data4300 @ $1500/ea = $ 6.45M Option 3 “Smart” data logger plus low cost “motion pack” chassis sensor suite4300 @ $3500/ea = $ 15.05M Option 4 Full vehicle computer to log, process, and link (IETM & SAMS-E) existing data 4300 @ $5000/ea = $ 21.50M Option 5 Vehicle computer plus low cost “motion pack”4300 @ $7000/ea = $ 30.10M Option 6 Vehicle computer, low cost “motion pack”, plus GPS4300 @ $9000/ea = $ 38.70M Option 7 “High end” engineering level computer, “motion pack”, and GPS4300 @ $20,000/ea = $ 86.00M
8 TWV CBM Return On Investment Simple ROI Calculation for OIF/OEF FMTV Fleet Based on the following: Fleet of 4300 MTVs Sustainment costs of $52M/yr Option 3 @$3500/vehicle (smart data logger and low cost motion pack) CBM savings rate of 5% Yearly savings - 2%/yr x $52M = $1.04M/yr Hardware costs - 4300 x $3500 = $15.05M ROI period- $15.05M / $1.04M/yr = 14.47 yr ROI period can increase or decrease significantly based on percent savings applied This example does not include many other CBM enabling costs so the ROI period will definitely be longer when all costs are factored in. This example does not include many other CBM enabling costs so the ROI period will definitely be longer when all costs are factored in.
9 TWV CBM Return On Investment Current Efforts Supporting CBM Return on Investment Analysis AMSAA Data Collection and Study Efforts TACOM Failure Analysis in support of Delayed Desert Damage and Degradation Studies (4D) TARDEC Studies PD-TMDE Activities PM-TV Activities SBCT Proof of Enablers (PoE) Cost Benefit Analysis Note: Review of AMSAA data collection to date has not yet provided PM-TV data that would result in changes in maintenance planning and support
10 TWV CBM Return On Investment How Can AMC Help? Funding support for AMSAA More & varied data acquisition suites Expanded data analysis Failure mode/PoF investigations Diagnostic/prognostic algorithm development Funding support for TACOM ILSC Expanded data analysis Improving data/record keeping interfaces Data processing & storage Funding support for TARDEC Expanded data analysis Failure mode/PoF investigations Diagnostic/prognostic algorithm development Sensor selection & placement Platform HW optimization Funding support for PD TMDE Smart Wireless Diagnostic Sensor development Vehicle Integrated Diagnostic Software development Assistance and funding support for IT/Comms Definitions & Solutions Spur User Involvement for Interpretation/quantification of benefits/usefulness Requirements generation
11 TWV Supporting Common Logistics Operating Environment (CLOE) & CBM MTS FBCB2 Digital Logbook CBM Data Warehouse Embedded At-Platform Maintenance Data Collection - entire troubleshooting, maintenance and parts ordering session logged and time/date stamped: Maintainer ID Vehicle ID DODAAC Symptoms Tests & Test Results Diagnostic Path Isolated Faults Maintenance Action Parts Consumed VHMS SAMS-E Digital PMCS LOGSALIW SAMS-2E SAMS-1E SARSS Operator Maintainer CAISI SAMS-IE Maintainer SAMS-DLB SAMS-IE SAMS-DLB SBCT Proof of Enablers (PoE) Cost Benefit Analysis supports the goodness of TWVs participating in a common logistics operating environment PM Can Provide: - Ability to interface - Translation of sensor data - Army development and doctrine changes required - Usage of information once received - Army development and doctrine changes required
12 TWV CBM Return On Investment TWV CBM CBA/ROI Phased Approach Phase 1: Identify candidate platform cost drivers and component targets Identify benefit drivers (Availability, parts ordering, automation, etc) Develop FMEA/FMECA and other system models from existing field and design data. Generate CBA/ROI model, identify inputs, and formulate assumptions Phase 2: Component level testing in test cells (engines, transmissions, alternators, etc) Identify fault modes in controlled environment Develop diagnostic/prognostic algorithms Identify benefits and savings/avoidance potential Design field trial for proof of enablers with FMTV Truck Fleet SDC Feed CBA/ROI model with test cell experiment results Phase 3: Equip FMTV Fleet for tiered Sample Data Collection Conduct FMTV Truck Fleet tiered SDC Feed CBA/ROI model with Fleet tiered SDC results
13 TWV CBM Return On Investment Business Case Analysis Timelines and Costs POM requests for FYs 10-15 of $4.5M/yr Instrumentation & sensor improvements Data analysis, failure mode analysis Diagnostic and prognostic algorithm development Data management and organization Failure type analysis for 1 year for 4 TWV fleets with failure mode analysis for “top 5” cost and readiness drivers Project support & execution, data analysis Component testing and modeling Diagnostic and prognostic algorithm development Data analysis, failure mode analysis Unfunded requests for FY09 - $4.2M, FY10 - $1.1M WDS-A, WDS-D, Smart WDS integration & test SAMS-E, DLB, VIDS Interface Development AMSAA OMA/RDTE TACOM OMA TARDEC RDTE PD TMDE OMA/RDTE FY09FY10$4.5M $1.5M $6.2M $4.2M$1.1M $16.4M$5.6M
14 TWV CBM Return On Investment Highlights from “Business Case Template for CBM+ Enablers” Two year timeline of fleet maintenance events, dates, resources, downtimes, etc. Maintenance related events for each enabler eligible component: inspections, parts removals, parts shipping, scheduled & unscheduled maintenance, time waiting for parts, actual repairs. One time costs: Purchase and installation of enablers Development costs of enablers Recurring costs: Repair & replacement of enablers Software updates Cost savings: Reduced parts orders Lower transportation costs for parts Correct parts ordered Reduced fleet size due to higher vehicle availability Cost avoidance: Minimized inspections due to better vehicle health visibility Reduced repairs by avoiding collateral damage equipment failures Fewer recovery missions for field failures Reduced “exposure” time & resulting injuries for users and maintainers
15 Business Case Analysis Timelines and Costs Although existing investments in technology development and data analysis are being leveraged, help is needed in securing requested, and new funding. This will support additional data gathering and analysis, algorithm development and validation, and cost analysis for savings or avoidance projections. This is estimated to be an 18-24 month effort. TWV CBM Return On Investment This investment will leverage ~ $20M spent in this area in the last two years.
17 TWV CBM Return On Investment Current Efforts Supporting CBM Return on Investment Analysis - AMSAA Sample Data Collection System Health and Reliability Computer (SHARC) data acquisition suite collects GPS, vehicle databus, and chassis sensor data Multiple vehicle types, locations, terrains, climates Developing usage profiles, severity indices, damage accumulation parameters Miniaturization and improvement of data acquisition suite Lower cost with more installation flexibility Development of diagnostic and prognostic algorithms Seeded fault testing and teardown analysis Oil conditioning monitoring Data management and correlation techniques Linking of component parametric and maintenance data
18 TWV CBM Return On Investment Current Efforts Supporting CBM Return on Investment Analysis - TACOM ILSC Delayed Desert Damage & Degradation (4D) Analysis Data mining and failure mode analysis for “Top 50” readiness drivers from SWA across all ground fleets LIW & ILAP – Demand and cost data OSMIS – OPTEMPO/miles & densities Maintenance & deadline info/activity AMSAA SDC – Parametric data TARDEC - Deficiencies database C-REPS - LAR database FMEA – Root causes for failures
19 TWV CBM Return On Investment Current Efforts Supporting CBM Return on Investment Analysis - TARDEC MSU & nCode – Improved Techniques for Vehicle Prognostic/Diagnostic Data Acquisition, Analysis, and Storage On-vehicle HW & SW for chassis monitoring Analysis, comparison, and correlation of new data with existing databases at multiple echelons Study effects of re-configuration and compression of new data for storage in data warehouse/repository Global Electronics – Advanced Diagnostics for Diesel Engines Statistical analysis methods for data sets Neural network analysis methods for data sets Learning system behaviors and development of models Supporting informed maintenance decisions
20 TWV CBM Return On Investment Current Efforts Supporting CBM Return on Investment Analysis - PD TMDE Wireless Diagnostic Sensor (WDS) On-vehicle data logging for diagnostic and parametric data Supports digital databus and/or analog vehicle data feeds Vehicle Integrated Diagnostic Software (VIDS) VIDS-Embedded. On-board data collector and analyzer that interfaces to an off-board controller such as the MSD VIDS-Field. Expert database resides off-board and provides linear regression analysis and failure predictions (Currently hosted on an MSD)
21 TWV CBM Return On Investment Current Efforts Supporting CBM Return on Investment Analysis – PM-TV PM-TV – AMRDEC effort to reduce troubleshooting/diagnostic time of critical non-sensored Starting and fuel circuits. Automating diagnostics of critical systems PM-HTV - Penn State effort to add automated diagnostics to vehicle Hydraulic systems
22 TWV CBM Return On Investment How Can We Augment and Enhance Current Activities in Support of a CBA/ROI study? AMSAA activities Expand Sample Data Collection efforts More vehicles, vehicle types, and locations Tiered data acquisition suites Low budget – No new sensors, databus logging, “virtual” sensing Medium budget – “Motion Pack” chassis sensors, data logging, preprocessing of data High budget – “Motion Pack”, data logging, full computing, links to IETMs and logistic interfaces, GPS Support failure mode characterizations w/vehicles & components Seeded/induced fault testing Component teardown and analysis Investigate advanced analysis techniques & methods Continue component model & algorithm development
23 TWV CBM Return On Investment How Can We Augment and Enhance Current Activities in Support of a CBA/ROI study? TACOM ILSC activities Create new effort to Target TWVs for data analysis Expand beyond SWA theater of operation Leverage database correlation tools Investigate modifying current maintenance action record keeping Help develop interfaces between CBM data, IETMs, and SAMS-E
24 TWV CBM Return On Investment * Test PM-TV efforts on selected vehicles How Can We Augment and Enhance Current Activities in Support of a CBA/ROI study? PD TMDE activities Smart Wireless Diagnostic Sensor Develop cost effective on-board data logger/processor that complements off-board TMDE and works with Log C2 SW Vehicle Integrated Diagnostic Software Mature and expand VIDS-E and VIDS-F analysis and reporting capabilities Allow porting of third party algorithms into VIDS
25 TWV CBM Return On Investment How Can We Augment and Enhance Current Activities in Support of a CBA/ROI study? TARDEC activities MSU & nCode – Improved Techniques for Vehicle Prognostic/Diagnostic Data Acquisition, Analysis, and Storage Leverage 4-D Analysis or 4-D follow-on effort Global Electronics – Advanced Diagnostics for Diesel Engines Coordinate with AMSAA SDC, failure mode, and algorithm development activities Correlate RAM testing data and analyses with CBM activities