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Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon.

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Presentation on theme: "Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon."— Presentation transcript:

1 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets Mathias Göckede 1, Beverly Law 1, Tara Hudiburg 1, David Turner 1, Warren Cohen 1,2 1 OSU Dept. Forest Ecosystems & Society; 2 USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station Synthesizing multiple approaches to obtain comprehensive regional scale carbon budgets The ORCA2 West Coast Project

2 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets Three states - California - Oregon - Washington Three approaches - Bottom-up modeling - Top-down modeling - Biometric inventories Project focus - climate variability - disturbance history - stand age - drought stress ORCA2 project

3 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets (Hudiburg et al., Ecol Appl 2009) Biometric Inventory Results based on Forest Inventory and Analysis plots (~7000) ~200 additional intensive study areas Basic results Biomass (e.g. live/dead trees, detritus) Net primary production (increment data) Extended results Net ecosystem production (includes e.g. wood decomposition, litterfall,  soil C) Net biome production (include havest, fire)

4 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets (Hudiburg et al., in review) Inventory Results Fluxes in [Tg C yr -1 ] High net uptake in California forests High productivity along CA coast CA harvest half of OR and WA Current NBP [gC m -2 yr -1 ] 9.0 ∙ ∙ ∙ 10 6

5 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets Biome-BGC Bottom-Up Modeling (Turner et al., BioGeoSciences 2007) Main features Fully coupled C/N/H 2 O cycles Prognostic phenology Considers disturbances (e.g. crop/forest harvest, wildfires) Reference datasets Biometric inventories - biomass - foliar C/N ratios Trained at the ecoregion scale

6 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets (Turner et al., in prep.) Main sinks Coastal forests Croplands (CA, WA) Disturbance Clearcuts and wildfires highly important for regional carbon budget Spatial setup <1k grid resolution needed to capture disturbance mosaic Bottom-Up Results

7 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets NBP offsets a significant portion of fossil fuel emissions in Washington and Oregon, but just a small fraction in California State-Level Carbon Fluxes NBP/ff: 0.50 NBP/ff: 0.96 NBP/ff: 0.12

8 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets ORCA2 Top-Down Modeling 5 sites for continuous CO 2 mixing ratios -3 provide input for inversion -2 used for quality assessment Background CO 2 : NOAA CarbonTracker Fossil fuel source: VULCAN database (Göckede et al., JGR 2010a)

9 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets ORCA2 Top-Down Results (Göckede et al., JGR 2010b) Regional CO 2 budgets highly sensitive to background CO ppm offset in incoming air masses shifts Oregon CO 2 budget by ~10% Correcting for biases in background CO 2 mixing ratios reduced the statewide CO 2 sink by ~47% (32 TgC yr -1 ) Background offsets NEP

10 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets 145 ± 31 gC m -2 yr -1 Methods comparison over Oregon Forest fluxes 5-yr avg, All fluxes Annual NEP, ± 24 gC m -2 yr -1 Top-Down model Biometric inventory Bottom-Up model 125 ± 13 gC m -2 yr ± 20 gC m -2 yr -1

11 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets Bottom-Up vs. Inventory Approach Good agreement for many ecoregions, but some outliers

12 Mathias Göckede, College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Regional Project Towards a Top-Down/Bottom-Up Synthesis Component of NACP-W Uncertainties in Top-Down Model Background CO 2 correction Regional flux budget highly sensitive to incoming [CO 2 ] Large uncertainties associated with monitoring and correction Concentration footprints Information focused on center and coast Coverage gaps particularly in SW and NE corners of state

13 Mathias Göckede, College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Regional Project Towards a Top-Down/Bottom-Up Synthesis Component of NACP-W Analyzing / Interpreting Differences Concept Fit an independent model that explains spatiotemporal flux differences based on auxiliary variables (e.g.RS, meteorol,...) Research tool Geostatistic inverse modeling Important factors Stand age influence Drought stress Bottom-Up NEP Top-Down NEP New model explaining differences (Göckede et al., in prep., cooperation with A. Michalak, V. Yadav, K. Mueller, S. Gourdji)

14 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets Effects of biofuel management on regional forest carbon budget (Hudiburg et al., in review) Fire prevention: minimum impact, only aim to reduce wildfires Economically feasible: medium impact, offset cost by wood sale Bioenergy production: highest impact, thin 50% everywhere

15 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets Biofuel management impacts (Hudiburg et al., in review) Managing forests for biofuels may increase emissions in region Net impacts depend on current sink and forest sector FFE

16 Mathias Göckede College of Forestry Oregon State University The ORCA2 West Coast Project Synthesizing multiple approaches to constrain regional scale carbon budgets Summary of Analysis Range of NEP estimates for the West Coast region, agreement between three methods improved with latest results Each approach has individual strengths and weaknesses, combination helps to identify problems and uncertainties NBP offsets a significant portion of fossil fuel emissions in Washington and Oregon, but just a small fraction in California Disturbance (harvest, fire) is a significant driver of NEP and NBP in region (harvest dominates) Thinning forests for bioenergy production increases emissions of the region (20 year life cycle analysis)


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