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Our G-enealogy Brough Turner Founder & CTO Ashtonbrooke.com

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1 Our G-enealogy Brough Turner Founder & CTO Ashtonbrooke.com

2 2 Our G-enealogy Brief history of cellular wireless telephony –Radio technology: TDMA, CDMA, OFDMA –Mobile core network architectures Demographics & market trends today –3.5G, WiMAX, LTE & 4G migration paths Implications for the next 2-5 years How the history of cellular technology helps us understand 4G technology and business models and their likely impact on wireless broadband Google “3G Tutorial” “4G Tutorial”

3 3 Outrageous ideas 5 GHz spectrum better than 700 MHz 2020: LTE* >80%; WiMAX* <15% –* i.e. LTE family of networks vs WiMAX evolution Should ask: Wi-Fi vs LTE + WiMAX –e.g. user owned versus service provider owned Value of TV white spaces: Secondary access Open 3 GHz – 10 GHz to all –License exempt on secondary access basis

4 4 Source: ITU World ICT Indicators, June 2008 Mobiles overtake fixed

5 5 Mobile Generations GSummaryData Rates 1 Analog Typical 2.4 Kbps; max 22 Kbps 2 Digital – TDMA, CDMA Kbps (circuit data) 2.5 GPRS – mux packets in voice timeslots Kbps 3 Improved modulation, using CDMA variants 50 – 144 Kbps (1xRTT); 200 – 384 Kbps (UMTS); 500 Kbps – 2.4 Mbps (EVDO) 3.5 More modulation tweaks 2–14 Mbps (HSPA), then 28 Mbps & 42/84 Mbps future evolution 4 New modulation (OFDMA); Multi-path (MIMO); All IP LTE: potentially >100 Mbps with adequate spectrum (20 MHz)

6 6 Enormous technology change but commercial issues trump technology and legal-regulatory trumps all

7 7 The content organized here includes material contributions from: Fanny Mlinarsky, octoScope Marc Orange, Interphase (formerly w/ NMS Communications) Murtaza Amiji, Tellme (A Microsoft Subsidiary) Samuel S. May, Price Waterhouse Coopers –Formerly with US Bancorp Piper Jaffray Charles Cooper, dLR and many others, as noted on specific slides

8 8 Origins of Wireless Communications 1864: James Clark Maxwell –Predicts existence of radio waves 1886: Heinrich Rudolph Hertz –Demonstrates radio waves : Guglielmo Marconi –Demonstrates wireless communications over increasing distances Also in the 1890s –Nikola Tesla, Alexander Stepanovich Popov, Jagdish Chandra Bose and others, demonstrate forms of wireless communications

9 9 First Mobile Radio Telephone, 1924 Courtesy of Rich Howard

10 Cellular Mobile Telephony Antenna diversity Cellular concept ●Bell Labs (1957 & 1960) Frequency reuse ●typically every 7 cells Handoff as caller moves Modified CO switch ●HLR, paging, handoffs Sectors improve reuse ●every 3 cells possible

11 11 First Generation (nearly all retired) Advanced Mobile Phone Service (AMPS) –US trials 1978; deployed in Japan (’79) & US (’83) –800 MHz; two 20 MHz bands; TIA-553 Nordic Mobile Telephony (NMT) –Sweden, Norway, Demark & Finland –Launched 1981 –450 MHz; later at 900 MHz (NMT900) Total Access Communications System (TACS) –British design; similar to AMPS; deployed 1985

12 12 2nd Generation – digital systems Leverage technology to increase capacity –Speech compression; digital signal processing Utilize/extend “Intelligent Network” concepts –Improve fraud prevention; Add new services Wide diversity of 2G systems –IS-54/ IS-136 Digital AMPS; PDC (Japan) –DECT and PHS; iDEN –IS-95 CDMA (cdmaOne) –GSM

13 13 2G “CDMA” (cdmaOne) Code Division Multiple Access –all users share same frequency band –discussed in detail later as CDMA is basis for 3G Qualcomm demo in 1989 –claimed improved capacity & simplified planning First deployment in Hong Kong late 1994 Major success in Korea (1M subs by 1996) Adopted by Verizon and Sprint in US Easy migration to 3G (same modulation)

14 14 GSM – Global System for Mobile Originally “Groupe Spécial Mobile ” –joint European effort beginning 1982 –Focus: seamless roaming all Europe Services launched 1991 –time division multiple access (8 users per 200KHz) –900 MHz band; later 1800 MHz; then 850/1900 MHz GSM – dominant world standard today –well defined interfaces; many competitors; lowest cost to deploy –network effect took hold in late 1990s

15 15 GSM Dominant Today GSM+3GSM used by 88% of subscribers worldwide Asia leads with 42% of all mobile subscriptions –AT&T and T-Mobile use GSM/3GSM in US today Source: Wireless Intelligence / GSM Association GSM Subscribers

16 16 GSM substantially enhanced Widely deployed  significant payback for enhancements HSCSD - high speed circuit-switched data GPRS - general packet radio service Synchronization between cells –Minimize interference; help fix mobile’s location AMR vocoder – increase capacity (& fidelity) Frequency hopping (to overcome fading) Discontinuous transmission (more calls/ cell) Cell overlays with reuse partioning

17 17 1G, 2G, 3G Multi-Access Technologies Courtesy of Petri Possi, UMTS World 4G and future wireless systems optimize a combination of frequency, time and coding e.g. OFDMA & SC-FDMA (discussed later)

18 18 2G & 3G – Code Division Multiple Access Spread spectrum modulation –originally developed for the military –resists jamming and many kinds of interference –coded modulation hidden from those w/o the code All users share same (large) block of spectrum –one for one frequency reuse –soft handoffs possible All 3G radio standards based on CDMA –CDMA2000, W-CDMA and TD-SCDMA

19 19 Courtesy of Suresh Goyal & Rich Howard

20 20 The 3G Vision Universal global roaming –Sought 1 standard (not 7), (but got 3: 3GSM, CDMA 2000 & TD-SCDMA) Increased data rates Multimedia (voice, data & video) Increased capacity (more spectrally efficient) Data-centric architecture (ATM at first, later IP) But deployment took much longer than expected –No killer data app; new spectrum costly; telecom bubble burst; much of the vision was vendor-driven

21 21 3G Radio technology today CDMA 2000 – Multi Carrier CDMA –Evolution of IS-95 CDMA; but now a dead end UMTS (W-CDMA, HSPA) – Direct Spread CDMA –Defined by 3GPP TD-SCDMA – Time Division Synchronous CDMA –Defined by Chinese Academy of Telecommunications Technology under the Ministry of Information Industry Paired spectrum bands Single spectral band with time division duplexing

22 22 Why CDMA 2000 lost out Had better migration story from 2G to 3G –Evolution from original Qualcomm CDMA (IS-95) –cdmaOne operators didn’t need additional spectrum Higher data rates than UMTS, at least at first Couldn’t compete with GSM’s critical mass –Last straw when Verizon Wireless selected 3GPP’s Long Term Evolution (LTE) for their 4G network –Verizon selection 11/07 –Qualcomm abandons further development 11/08

23 23 Japan USA 3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project) Partnership of 6 regional standards groups, which translate 3GPP specifications to regional standards Controls evolution of GSM, 3GSM (UMTS, WCDMA, HSPA) & LTE 23

24 24 UMTS (3GSM) is market leader GSM evolution: W-CDMA, HSDPA, HSPA, +… –leverages GSM’s dominant position Legally mandated in Europe and elsewhere Requires substantial new spectrum –5 MHz each way (symmetric) at a minimum Slow start (was behind CDMA 2000), but now the accepted leader –Network effect built on GSM’s >80% market share –Surely LTE will benefit in the same fashion…

25 25 TD-SCDMA (Time division synchronous CDMA) Chinese development –IPR bargaining tool with West? Late to market, but big deployment plans Single spectral band –unpaired spectrum; as little as 1.6 MHz; time division duplex (TDD) with high spectral efficiency; good match for asymmetrical traffic! Power amplifiers must be very linear –relatively hard to meet specifications

26 26 China 3G Largest mobile market in world (630 M subs) –Largest population in world (1.3 billion) Home-brew 3G standard: TD-SCDMA –3G licenses were delayed until TD-SCDMA worked –2008 trials: 10 cities, 15K BSs & 60K handsets 3G granted January 2009 –China Mobile: TD-SCDMA –China Unicom: 3GSM (UMTS) –China Telecom: CDMA 2000

27 27 3G Adoption – DoCoMo Japan Potential to discontinue 2G services in 2010 … 2G: mova 3G: FOMA

28 28 3G Subscribers (2Q 2008) 18% on 3G; 82% on 2G; 0.01% on 1G EU & US 3G penetration approaching 30% US penetration rate soaring Source: comScore MobiLens 3-month averages ending June 2008 & June 2007 All mobile subscribers ages 13+

29 29 3G data-only subscribers Soaring adoption of 3G “USB Data Modems” –92% of all 3G data bytes in Finland in 2H07 Informa on EU 3G devices, May 2008 –101.5M 3G devices: 64 M handsets, 37M 3G data modems In-Stat/ ABI Research –In-Stat: 5M cellular modems in 2006 –ABI Research 300% growth in 2007, i.e. 20M? Enormous growth, from a relatively small base…

30 30 Diverse Mobile Wireless Spectrum

31 31 Wireless Migration

32 32 Wireless capacity / throughput First cell phones AMPS GSM CDMA Wi-Fi WiMAX LTE Increasing throughput and capacity UMTS/HSPA 2G 3G 4G OFDM → OFDMA MIMO

33 33 ITU-T Framework 3GPP 3GPP – WWAN (wireless wide area network) IEEE IEEE – WMAN (wireless metropolitan area network) IEEE IEEE – WLAN (wireless local area network) ITU-T ITU-T – United Nations telecommunications standards organization Accepts detailed standards contributions from 3GPP, IEEE and other groups Pervasive connectivity WLAN - WMAN - WWAN

34 34 ITU Mobile Telecommunications IMT-2000 –Global standard for third generation (3G) wireless –Detailed specifications from 3GPP, 3GPP2, ETSI and others IMT-Advanced –New communications framework: deployment ~2010 to 2015 –Data rates to reach around 100 Mbps for high mobility and 1 Gbps for nomadic networks (i.e. WLANs) –High mobility case via either or both evolved LTE & WiMAX –802.11ac and ad addressing the nomadic case

35 35 LTE highlights Sophisticated multiple access schemes –DL: OFDMA with Cyclic Prefix (CP) –UL: Single Carrier FDMA (SC-FDMA) with CP Adaptive modulation and coding –QPSK, 16QAM, and 64QAM –1/3 coding rate, two 8-state constituent encoders, and a contention-free internal interleaver Advanced MIMO spatial multiplexing –(2 or 4) x (2 or 4) downlink and uplink

36 36 4G Technology – OFDMA Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access –Supercedes CDMA used in all 3G variants OFDMA = Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) plus statistical multiplexing –Optimization of time, frequency & code multiplexing OFDM already deployed in a & g –Took Wi-Fi from 11 Mbps to 54 Mbps & beyond

37 37 Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing –Many closely-spaced sub-carriers, chosen to be orthogonal, thus eliminating inter-carrier interference –Varies bits per sub-carrier based on instantaneous received power

38 38 Statistical Multiplexing (in OFDMA) Dynamically allocate user data to sub-carriers based on instantaneous data rates and varying sub-carrier capacities Highly efficient use of spectrum Robust against fading, e.g. for mobile operation

39 39 FDMA vs. OFDMA OFDMA more frequency efficient Dynamically map traffic to frequencies based on their instantaneous throughput FDMA Channel Guard band OFDMA

40 40 4G Technology - MIMO Multiple Input Multiple Output smart antenna technology Multiple paths improve link reliability and increase spectral efficiency (bps per Hz), range and directionality

41 41 Municipal Multipath Environment

42 42 SDMA = Smart Antenna Technologies Beamforming –Use multiple-antennas to spatially shape the beam Spatial Multiplexing a.k.a. Collaborative MIMO –Multiple streams transmitted –Multi-antenna receivers separate the streams to achieve higher throughput –On uplink, multiple single- antenna stations can transmit simultaneously Space-Time Codes –Transmit diversity such as Alamouti code reduces fading 2x2 Collaborative MIMO give 2x peak data rate by transmitting two data streams

43 43 4G Technology – SC-FDMA Single carrier multiple access –Used for LTE uplinks –Being considered for m uplink Similar structure and performance to OFDMA –Single carrier modulation with DFT-spread orthogonal frequency multiplexing and FD equalization Lower Peak to Average Power Ratio (PAPR) –Improves cell-edge performance –Transmit efficiency conserves handset battery life

44 44 Key Features of WiMAX and LTE OFDMA (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access) Users are allocated a slice in time and frequency Flexible, dynamic per user resource allocation Base station scheduler for uplink and downlink resource allocation –Resource allocation information conveyed on a frame ‐ by frame basis Support for TDD (time division duplex) and FDD (frequency division duplex) DL UL DL UL FDD Paired channels TDD: single frequency channel for uplink and downlink

45 45 3G/4G Comparison Peak Data Rate (Mbps)Access time (msec) DownlinkUplink HSPA (today)14 Mbps2 Mbps msec HSPA (Release 7) MIMO 2x228 Mbps11.6 Mbps msec HSPA + (MIMO, 64QAM Downlink) 42 Mbps11.6 Mbps msec WiMAX Release 1.0 TDD (2:1 UL/DL ratio), 10 MHz channel 40 Mbps10 Mbps40 msec LTE (Release 8), 5+5 MHz channel 43.2 Mbps21.6 Mbps30 msec

46 46 WiMAX vs. LTE Commonalities –IP-based –OFDMA and MIMO –Similar data rates and channel widths Differences –Carriers are able to set requirements for LTE through organizations like NGMN and LSTI, but cannot do this as easily at the IEEE-based –LTE backhaul is, at least partially, designed to support legacy services while WiMAX assumes greenfield deployments

47 47 Commercial Issues LTE Deployments likely slower than projected But Eventual migration path for GSM/3GSM, i.e. for > 80% share Will be lowest cost & dominant in 2020 WiMAX 2-3 year lead, likely maintained for years Dedicated spectrum in many countries But Likely < 15% share by 2020 & thus more costly

48 48 3G Partnership Project Defines migration GSM to UMTS/ 3GSM to LTE Release Specs complete First deployedMajor new features defined Last purely 2G GSM release 991Q W-CDMA air interface 42Q Softswitching IP in core network 51Q HSDPA & IP Multimedia System (IMS) 64Q HSUPA, MBMS, GAN, PoC & WLAN integration 74Q 2007futureHSPA+, Better latency & QoS for VoIP 84Q 2008futureLTE, All-IP W-CDMA – Wideband CDMA modulation HSxPA – High Speed (Download/Upload) Packet Access MBMS – Multimedia Broadcast Multicast Service GAN – Generic Access Network PoC – Push-to-talk over Cellular LTE – Long Term Evolution, a new air interface based on OFDM modulation * * Rush job?

49 49 Core Network Architectures Two widely deployed architectures today 3GPP evolved from GSM-MAP –Used by GSM & 3GSM operators (88% of subs globally) –“Mobile Application Part” defines signaling for mobility, authentication, etc. 3GPP2 evolved from ANSI-41 MAP –ANSI-41 used with AMPS, TDMA & CDMA 2000 –GAIT (GSM ANSI Interoperability Team) allowed interoperation, i.e., roaming Evolving to common “all IP” vision based on 3GPP

50 50 Typical 2G Mobile Architecture BTS Base Transceiver Station BSC Base Station Controller MSC Mobile Switching Center VLR Visitor Location Register HLR Home Location Register BTS BSC MSC/VLR HLRBSC GMSC CO BSC MSC/VLR CO PSTN PLMN CO Tandem SMS-SC PSDN

51 51 Separation of Signaling & Transport Like PSTN, 2G mobile networks have one network plane for voice circuits and another network plane for signaling Some elements reside only in the signaling plane –HLR, VLR, SMS Center, … Transport Plane (Voice) Signaling Plane (SS7) MSC HLR VLR MSC SMS-SC MSC

52 52 Signaling in Core Network Based on SS7 –ISUP and specific Application Parts GSM MAP and ANSI-41 services –mobility, call-handling, O&M, authentication, supplementary services, SMS, … Location registers for mobility management –HLR: home location register has permanent data –VLR: visitor location register – local copy for roamers

53 53 PSTN-to-Mobile Call (STP) (SCP) PSTNPLMN (SSP) BSSMS PLMN (Home)(Visitor) (STP) HLR GMSC (SSP) VMSC VLR IAM 6 2 Where is the subscriber? 5 Routing Info 3Provide Roaming 4 SCP 1 IAM ISUP MAP/ IS41 (over TCAP) Signaling over SS7

54 54 GSM 2G Architecture BSS Base Station System BTS Base Transceiver Station BSC Base Station Controller MS Mobile Station NSS Network Sub-System MSC Mobile-service Switching Controller VLR Visitor Location Register HLR Home Location Register AuC Authentication Server GMSC Gateway MSC GSM Global System for Mobile communication SS7 BTS BSC MSC VLR HLR AuC GMSC BSS PSTN NSS A E C D PSTN Abis B H MS

55 55 2.5G Architectural Detail SS7 BTS BSC MSC VLR HLR AuC GMSC BSS PSTN NSS A E C D PSTN Abis B H MS BSS Base Station System BTS Base Transceiver Station BSC Base Station Controller NSS Network Sub-System MSC Mobile-service Switching Controller VLR Visitor Location Register HLR Home Location Register AuC Authentication Server GMSC Gateway MSC SGSN Serving GPRS Support Node GGSN Gateway GPRS Support Node GPRS General Packet Radio Service IP 2G+ MS (voice&data) PSDN Gi SGSN Gr Gb Gs GGSN Gc Gn 2G MS (voice only)

56 56 3G rel99 Architecture (UMTS) SS7 IP BTS BSC MSC VLR HLR AuC GMSC BSS SGSNGGSN PSTN PSDN CN C D Gc Gr GnGi Abis Gs B H BSS Base Station System BTS Base Transceiver Station BSC Base Station Controller RNS Radio Network System RNC Radio Network Controller CN Core Network MSC Mobile-service Switching Controller VLR Visitor Location Register HLR Home Location Register AuC Authentication Server GMSC Gateway MSC SGSN Serving GPRS Support Node GGSN Gateway GPRS Support Node A EPSTN 2G MS (voice only) 2G+ MS (voice & data) UMTS Universal Mobile Telecommunication System Gb 3G UE (voice & data) Node B RNC RNS Iub IuCS ATM IuPS

57 57 3G rel4 - Soft Switching

58 58 3GPP rel5 ― IP Multimedia

59 59 3GPP2 Defines IS-41 Evolution 3rd Generation Partnership Project “Two” –Evolution of IS-41 to “all IP” more direct (skips ATM stage), but not any faster –Goal of ultimate merger (3GPP + 3GPP2) remains 1xRTT – IP packets (like GPRS) 1xEVDO – Evolution data-optimized 1xEVDV – abandoned 3x – Triples radio data rates Universal Mobile Broadband (UMB) – abandoned

60 60 NextGen Networks (NGN) Converging 3GPP2 — CDMA2000 multi-media domain (MMD) based on 3GPP IMS R5 TISPAN — evolves NGN architecture for fixed networks based on 3GPP IMS ITU-T NGN Focus Group — venue to make TISPAN NGN a global spec ATIS NGN Focus Group — formally collaborating with ETSI as of April 2005 PacketCable Release 2.0 — aligning with portions of 3GPP GPP Release 4 3GPP IMS R5 3GPP IMS R6 TISPAN R1 3GPP2 MMD ITU-T NGN FG ATIS NGN FG Packet Cable 2.0 3GPP IMS R7 Following 3GPP lead

61 61 3GPP R7 / TISPAN IMS

62 62 IMS / NGN Vision One core network for “any access” –Based on IP, using IETF standards, with extensions –Wireline and wireless transparency Access and bandwidth will be commodities; services are the differentiator –Per-session control supports per-application quality of service (QoS) and per-application billing Voice is just application –“Easily” integrated with other applications…

63 63 IMS Story: Convergence Source: Team Analysis, Lucent Traditional Services TV Caller ID Phone Tools Push to Talk Wireline Packet Cable Wireless Wifi WiMax OSS/ BSS Access Delivery Media Functions Subscriber Data Application OSS/ BSS Access Delivery Media Functions Subscriber Data Application OSS/ BSS Access Delivery Media Functions Subscriber Data Application IMS Services Subscriber Data Media Functions IP Multimedia Subsystem OSS/ BSS Application Phone Tools Push to Talk Wireline Packet Cable Wireless Wifi WiMax Application TV Caller ID

64 64 IMS / NGN Value Proposition Generate new revenue from new services –Per-session control allows IMS to guarantee QoS for each IP session, and enables differential billing for applications & content Reduce capital spending –Converge all services on common infrastructure –Focus limited resources on core competencies To date, mobile operators have had no incentive to deploy IMS for voice services

65 65 LTE and IMS LTE is an all-IP network –Not compatible with legacy voice services –Assumes the use of IP Multimedia System (IMS) Initial LTE networks will be data only Initial LTE handsets will be multi-modal, supporting HSPA and earlier systems for voice telephony VOLGA Forum working on a fix –Voice over LTE via Generic Access

66 66 Long Term Parallels: IN & IMS Intelligent Network Free operators from equipment provider lock-in Separate applications from basic call control Open protocols and APIs for applications Intelligent Network Application Successes FreePhone, Mobile (HLR), Pre-paid, Voice mail, … 15 year summary: A few applications, very widely deployed

67 67 LTE’s System Architecture Evolution (SAE) Diagram by Huawei RAN (Radio access network) SGSN (Serving GPRS Support Node) PCRF (policy and charging function) HSS (Home Subscriber Server) MME (Mobility Management Entity) SAE (System Architecture Evolution)

68 68 Mobile Service Revenues > $800 billion in 2007, growing 6%-7% per year –> $1 trillion by 2012 Voice services dominate: 81% SMS services: 9.5% ; All other non-voice services: 9.5% Source: Portio Research

69 69 Images courtesy of Jon Stern

70 70 Mobile Services Futures Affordable open mobile Internet access coming –Five competing 3.5G operators in US by 2010 –Smart phone penetration soaring Operators’ control of handset software slipping –iPhone and Android application stores, initiatives for Symbian, WinMobile, Adobe AIR, etc.

71 71 The Internet is the killer platform Mobile Internet access driving 3G data usage Future business models an open question Slides from yesterday’s Mobile Broadband discussion, are available

72 72 Enormous technology change but commercial issues trump technology and legal-regulatory trumps all

73 73 Outrageous ideas 5 GHz spectrum better than 700 MHz 2020: LTE* >80%; WiMAX* <15% –* i.e. LTE family of networks vs WiMAX evolution Should ask: Wi-Fi vs LTE + WiMAX Value of TV white spaces: Secondary access Open 3 GHz – 10 GHz to all –License exempt on secondary access basis

74 Thank you ! Brough Turner


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