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Our G-enealogy Brough Turner Founder & CTO

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1 Our G-enealogy Brough Turner Founder & CTO

2 Our G-enealogy How the history of cellular technology helps us
understand 4G technology and business models and their likely impact on wireless broadband Brief history of cellular wireless telephony Radio technology: TDMA, CDMA, OFDMA Mobile core network architectures Demographics & market trends today 3.5G, WiMAX, LTE & 4G migration paths Implications for the next 2-5 years Google “3G Tutorial” “4G Tutorial” 2

3 Outrageous ideas 5 GHz spectrum better than 700 MHz
2020: LTE* >80%; WiMAX* <15% * i.e. LTE family of networks vs WiMAX evolution Should ask: Wi-Fi vs LTE + WiMAX e.g. user owned versus service provider owned Value of TV white spaces: Secondary access Open 3 GHz – 10 GHz to all License exempt on secondary access basis

4 Mobiles overtake fixed
Source: ITU World ICT Indicators, June 2008 4

5 Mobile Generations G Summary Data Rates 1 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Analog
Typical 2.4 Kbps; max 22 Kbps 2 Digital – TDMA, CDMA Kbps (circuit data) 2.5 GPRS – mux packets in voice timeslots Kbps 3 Improved modulation, using CDMA variants 50 – 144 Kbps (1xRTT); 200 – 384 Kbps (UMTS); 500 Kbps – 2.4 Mbps (EVDO) 3.5 More modulation tweaks 2–14 Mbps (HSPA), then 28 Mbps & 42/84 Mbps future evolution 4 New modulation (OFDMA); Multi-path (MIMO); All IP LTE: potentially >100 Mbps with adequate spectrum (20 MHz)

6 Enormous technology change
but commercial issues trump technology and legal-regulatory trumps all

7 The content organized here includes material contributions from:
Fanny Mlinarsky, octoScope Marc Orange, Interphase (formerly w/ NMS Communications) Murtaza Amiji, Tellme (A Microsoft Subsidiary) Samuel S. May, Price Waterhouse Coopers Formerly with US Bancorp Piper Jaffray Charles Cooper, dLR and many others, as noted on specific slides 7

8 Origins of Wireless Communications
1864: James Clark Maxwell Predicts existence of radio waves 1886: Heinrich Rudolph Hertz Demonstrates radio waves : Guglielmo Marconi Demonstrates wireless communications over increasing distances Also in the 1890s Nikola Tesla, Alexander Stepanovich Popov, Jagdish Chandra Bose and others, demonstrate forms of wireless communications 8

9 First Mobile Radio Telephone, 1924
Courtesy of Rich Howard 9

10 Cellular Mobile Telephony
Antenna diversity Cellular concept Bell Labs (1957 & 1960) Frequency reuse typically every 7 cells Handoff as caller moves Modified CO switch HLR, paging, handoffs Sectors improve reuse every 3 cells possible 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 10

11 First Generation (nearly all retired)
Advanced Mobile Phone Service (AMPS) US trials 1978; deployed in Japan (’79) & US (’83) 800 MHz; two 20 MHz bands; TIA-553 Nordic Mobile Telephony (NMT) Sweden, Norway, Demark & Finland Launched 1981 450 MHz; later at 900 MHz (NMT900) Total Access Communications System (TACS) British design; similar to AMPS; deployed 1985 11

12 2nd Generation – digital systems
Leverage technology to increase capacity Speech compression; digital signal processing Utilize/extend “Intelligent Network” concepts Improve fraud prevention; Add new services Wide diversity of 2G systems IS-54/ IS-136 Digital AMPS; PDC (Japan) DECT and PHS; iDEN IS-95 CDMA (cdmaOne) GSM 12

13 2G “CDMA” (cdmaOne) Code Division Multiple Access
all users share same frequency band discussed in detail later as CDMA is basis for 3G Qualcomm demo in 1989 claimed improved capacity & simplified planning First deployment in Hong Kong late 1994 Major success in Korea (1M subs by 1996) Adopted by Verizon and Sprint in US Easy migration to 3G (same modulation) 13

14 GSM – Global System for Mobile
Originally “Groupe Spécial Mobile ” joint European effort beginning 1982 Focus: seamless roaming all Europe Services launched 1991 time division multiple access (8 users per 200KHz) 900 MHz band; later 1800 MHz; then 850/1900 MHz GSM – dominant world standard today well defined interfaces; many competitors; lowest cost to deploy network effect took hold in late 1990s 14

15 Source: Wireless Intelligence / GSM Association
GSM Dominant Today GSM+3GSM used by 88% of subscribers worldwide Asia leads with 42% of all mobile subscriptions AT&T and T-Mobile use GSM/3GSM in US today Source: Wireless Intelligence / GSM Association GSM Subscribers 15

16 GSM substantially enhanced
Widely deployed  significant payback for enhancements HSCSD - high speed circuit-switched data GPRS - general packet radio service Synchronization between cells Minimize interference; help fix mobile’s location AMR vocoder – increase capacity (& fidelity) Frequency hopping (to overcome fading) Discontinuous transmission (more calls/ cell) Cell overlays with reuse partioning 16

17 1G, 2G, 3G Multi-Access Technologies
Courtesy of Petri Possi, UMTS World 4G and future wireless systems optimize a combination of frequency, time and coding e.g. OFDMA & SC-FDMA (discussed later) 17

18 2G & 3G – Code Division Multiple Access
Spread spectrum modulation originally developed for the military resists jamming and many kinds of interference coded modulation hidden from those w/o the code All users share same (large) block of spectrum one for one frequency reuse soft handoffs possible All 3G radio standards based on CDMA CDMA2000, W-CDMA and TD-SCDMA 18

19 Courtesy of Suresh Goyal & Rich Howard

20 The 3G Vision Universal global roaming Increased data rates
Sought 1 standard (not 7), (but got 3: 3GSM, CDMA 2000 & TD-SCDMA) Increased data rates Multimedia (voice, data & video) Increased capacity (more spectrally efficient) Data-centric architecture (ATM at first, later IP) But deployment took much longer than expected No killer data app; new spectrum costly; telecom bubble burst; much of the vision was vendor-driven 20

21 3G Radio technology today
CDMA 2000 – Multi Carrier CDMA Evolution of IS-95 CDMA; but now a dead end UMTS (W-CDMA, HSPA) – Direct Spread CDMA Defined by 3GPP TD-SCDMA – Time Division Synchronous CDMA Defined by Chinese Academy of Telecommunications Technology under the Ministry of Information Industry Paired spectrum bands Single spectral band with time division duplexing 21

22 Why CDMA 2000 lost out Had better migration story from 2G to 3G
Evolution from original Qualcomm CDMA (IS-95) cdmaOne operators didn’t need additional spectrum Higher data rates than UMTS, at least at first Couldn’t compete with GSM’s critical mass Last straw when Verizon Wireless selected 3GPP’s Long Term Evolution (LTE) for their 4G network Verizon selection 11/07 Qualcomm abandons further development 11/08 22

23 3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project)
Japan USA Partnership of 6 regional standards groups, which translate 3GPP specifications to regional standards Controls evolution of GSM, 3GSM (UMTS, WCDMA, HSPA) & LTE 23

24 UMTS (3GSM) is market leader
GSM evolution: W-CDMA, HSDPA, HSPA, +… leverages GSM’s dominant position Legally mandated in Europe and elsewhere Requires substantial new spectrum 5 MHz each way (symmetric) at a minimum Slow start (was behind CDMA 2000), but now the accepted leader Network effect built on GSM’s >80% market share Surely LTE will benefit in the same fashion… 24

25 TD-SCDMA (Time division synchronous CDMA)
Chinese development IPR bargaining tool with West? Late to market, but big deployment plans Single spectral band unpaired spectrum; as little as 1.6 MHz; time division duplex (TDD) with high spectral efficiency; good match for asymmetrical traffic! Power amplifiers must be very linear relatively hard to meet specifications 25

26 China 3G Largest mobile market in world (630 M subs)
Largest population in world (1.3 billion) Home-brew 3G standard: TD-SCDMA 3G licenses were delayed until TD-SCDMA worked 2008 trials: 10 cities, 15K BSs & 60K handsets 3G granted January 2009 China Mobile: TD-SCDMA China Unicom: 3GSM (UMTS) China Telecom: CDMA 2000 26

27 3G Adoption – DoCoMo Japan
2G: mova 3G: FOMA Potential to discontinue 2G services in 2010 … 27

28 3G Subscribers (2Q 2008) 18% on 3G; 82% on 2G; 0.01% on 1G
EU & US 3G penetration approaching 30% US penetration rate soaring 3-month averages ending June 2008 & June 2007 All mobile subscribers ages 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens 28

29 3G data-only subscribers
Soaring adoption of 3G “USB Data Modems” 92% of all 3G data bytes in Finland in 2H07 Informa on EU 3G devices, May 2008 101.5M 3G devices: M handsets, 37M 3G data modems In-Stat/ ABI Research In-Stat: 5M cellular modems in 2006 ABI Research 300% growth in 2007, i.e. 20M? Enormous growth, from a relatively small base… 29

30 Diverse Mobile Wireless Spectrum

31 Wireless Migration

Wireless capacity / throughput CDMA First cell phones GSM Increasing throughput and capacity AMPS 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

33 ITU-T Framework Pervasive connectivity WLAN - WMAN - WWAN
ITU-T – United Nations telecommunications standards organization Accepts detailed standards contributions from 3GPP, IEEE and other groups 3GPP – WWAN (wireless wide area network) IEEE – WMAN (wireless metropolitan area network) IEEE – WLAN (wireless local area network) 33

34 ITU Mobile Telecommunications
IMT-2000 Global standard for third generation (3G) wireless Detailed specifications from 3GPP, 3GPP2, ETSI and others IMT-Advanced New communications framework: deployment ~2010 to 2015 Data rates to reach around 100 Mbps for high mobility and 1 Gbps for nomadic networks (i.e. WLANs) High mobility case via either or both evolved LTE & WiMAX 802.11ac and ad addressing the nomadic case 34

35 LTE highlights Sophisticated multiple access schemes
DL: OFDMA with Cyclic Prefix (CP) UL: Single Carrier FDMA (SC-FDMA) with CP Adaptive modulation and coding QPSK, 16QAM, and 64QAM 1/3 coding rate, two 8-state constituent encoders, and a contention-free internal interleaver Advanced MIMO spatial multiplexing (2 or 4) x (2 or 4) downlink and uplink 35

36 4G Technology – OFDMA Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access
Supercedes CDMA used in all 3G variants OFDMA = Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) plus statistical multiplexing Optimization of time, frequency & code multiplexing OFDM already deployed in a & g Took Wi-Fi from 11 Mbps to 54 Mbps & beyond 36

37 Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing
Many closely-spaced sub-carriers, chosen to be orthogonal, thus eliminating inter-carrier interference Varies bits per sub-carrier based on instantaneous received power 37

38 Statistical Multiplexing (in OFDMA)
Dynamically allocate user data to sub-carriers based on instantaneous data rates and varying sub-carrier capacities Highly efficient use of spectrum Robust against fading, e.g. for mobile operation 38

39 FDMA vs. OFDMA OFDMA more frequency efficient
Dynamically map traffic to frequencies based on their instantaneous throughput FDMA Channel Guard band

40 4G Technology - MIMO Multiple Input Multiple Output smart antenna technology Multiple paths improve link reliability and increase spectral efficiency (bps per Hz), range and directionality 40

41 Municipal Multipath Environment

42 SDMA = Smart Antenna Technologies
Beamforming Use multiple-antennas to spatially shape the beam Spatial Multiplexing a.k.a. Collaborative MIMO Multiple streams transmitted Multi-antenna receivers separate the streams to achieve higher throughput On uplink, multiple single-antenna stations can transmit simultaneously Space-Time Codes Transmit diversity such as Alamouti code reduces fading 2x2 Collaborative MIMO give 2x peak data rate by transmitting two data streams 42

43 4G Technology – SC-FDMA Single carrier multiple access
Used for LTE uplinks Being considered for m uplink Similar structure and performance to OFDMA Single carrier modulation with DFT-spread orthogonal frequency multiplexing and FD equalization Lower Peak to Average Power Ratio (PAPR) Improves cell-edge performance Transmit efficiency conserves handset battery life 43

44 Key Features of WiMAX and LTE
OFDMA (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access) Users are allocated a slice in time and frequency Flexible, dynamic per user resource allocation Base station scheduler for uplink and downlink resource allocation Resource allocation information conveyed on a frame‐by frame basis Support for TDD (time division duplex) and FDD (frequency division duplex) DL UL FDD Paired channels TDD: single frequency channel for uplink and downlink

45 3G/4G Comparison Peak Data Rate (Mbps) Access time (msec) Downlink
Uplink HSPA (today) 14 Mbps 2 Mbps msec HSPA (Release 7) MIMO 2x2 28 Mbps 11.6 Mbps HSPA + (MIMO, 64QAM Downlink) 42 Mbps WiMAX Release 1.0 TDD (2:1 UL/DL ratio), 10 MHz channel 40 Mbps 10 Mbps 40 msec LTE (Release 8), 5+5 MHz channel 43.2 Mbps 21.6 Mbps 30 msec

46 WiMAX vs. LTE Commonalities Differences IP-based OFDMA and MIMO
Similar data rates and channel widths Differences Carriers are able to set requirements for LTE through organizations like NGMN and LSTI, but cannot do this as easily at the IEEE-based LTE backhaul is, at least partially, designed to support legacy services while WiMAX assumes greenfield deployments

47 Commercial Issues LTE Deployments likely slower than projected But
Eventual migration path for GSM/3GSM, i.e. for > 80% share Will be lowest cost & dominant in 2020 WiMAX 2-3 year lead, likely maintained for years Dedicated spectrum in many countries But Likely < 15% share by 2020 & thus more costly

48 3G Partnership Project Defines migration GSM to UMTS/ 3GSM to LTE *
Release Specs complete First deployed Major new features defined 98 1998 Last purely 2G GSM release 99 1Q 2000 2003 W-CDMA air interface 4 2Q 2001 2004 Softswitching IP in core network 5 1Q 2002 2006 HSDPA & IP Multimedia System (IMS) 6 4Q 2004 2007 HSUPA, MBMS, GAN, PoC & WLAN integration 7 4Q 2007 future HSPA+, Better latency & QoS for VoIP 8 4Q 2008 LTE, All-IP * * Rush job? W-CDMA – Wideband CDMA modulation HSxPA – High Speed (Download/Upload) Packet Access MBMS – Multimedia Broadcast Multicast Service GAN – Generic Access Network PoC – Push-to-talk over Cellular LTE – Long Term Evolution, a new air interface based on OFDM modulation 48

49 Core Network Architectures
Two widely deployed architectures today 3GPP evolved from GSM-MAP Used by GSM & 3GSM operators (88% of subs globally) “Mobile Application Part” defines signaling for mobility, authentication, etc. 3GPP2 evolved from ANSI-41 MAP ANSI-41 used with AMPS, TDMA & CDMA 2000 GAIT (GSM ANSI Interoperability Team) allowed interoperation, i.e., roaming Evolving to common “all IP” vision based on 3GPP 49

50 Typical 2G Mobile Architecture
BTS Base Transceiver Station BSC Base Station Controller MSC Mobile Switching Center VLR Visitor Location Register HLR Home Location Register BTS BSC MSC/VLR HLR GMSC CO PSTN PLMN Tandem SMS-SC PSDN 50

51 Separation of Signaling & Transport
Like PSTN, 2G mobile networks have one network plane for voice circuits and another network plane for signaling Some elements reside only in the signaling plane HLR, VLR, SMS Center, … Transport Plane (Voice) Signaling Plane (SS7) MSC HLR VLR SMS-SC 51

52 Signaling in Core Network
Based on SS7 ISUP and specific Application Parts GSM MAP and ANSI-41 services mobility, call-handling, O&M, authentication, supplementary services, SMS, … Location registers for mobility management HLR: home location register has permanent data VLR: visitor location register – local copy for roamers 52

53 PSTN-to-Mobile Call PLMN PLMN PSTN Signaling over SS7 (Visitor) (Home)
(SCP) HLR SCP 2 Where is the subscriber? 3 Provide Roaming 4 5 Routing Info MAP/ IS41 (over TCAP) ISUP (STP) IAM 6 VMSC GMSC 1 IAM MS BSS (SSP) (SSP) (STP) (SSP) VLR 53

D Abis B H MS BSS Base Station System BTS Base Transceiver Station BSC Base Station Controller MS Mobile Station NSS Network Sub-System MSC Mobile-service Switching Controller VLR Visitor Location Register HLR Home Location Register AuC Authentication Server GMSC Gateway MSC GSM Global System for Mobile communication 54

55 2.5G Architectural Detail
2G MS (voice only) SS7 BTS BSC MSC VLR HLR AuC GMSC BSS PSTN NSS A E C D Abis B H MS IP 2G+ MS (voice&data) PSDN Gi SGSN Gr Gb Gs GGSN Gc Gn BSS Base Station System BTS Base Transceiver Station BSC Base Station Controller NSS Network Sub-System MSC Mobile-service Switching Controller VLR Visitor Location Register HLR Home Location Register AuC Authentication Server GMSC Gateway MSC SGSN Serving GPRS Support Node GGSN Gateway GPRS Support Node GPRS General Packet Radio Service 55

56 3G rel99 Architecture (UMTS)
2G MS (voice only) CN BSS 3G UE (voice & data) Node B RNC RNS Iub IuCS ATM IuPS E PSTN Abis PSTN A B BSC C MSC GMSC Gb D BTS VLR Gs SS7 H 2G+ MS (voice & data) Gr HLR AuC Gc Gn Gi PSDN IP SGSN GGSN BSS Base Station System BTS Base Transceiver Station BSC Base Station Controller RNS Radio Network System RNC Radio Network Controller CN Core Network MSC Mobile-service Switching Controller VLR Visitor Location Register HLR Home Location Register AuC Authentication Server GMSC Gateway MSC SGSN Serving GPRS Support Node GGSN Gateway GPRS Support Node UMTS Universal Mobile Telecommunication System 56

57 3G rel4 - Soft Switching PSTN SS7 IP/ATM PSDN 57 BTS BSC MSC Server
VLR HLR AuC GMSC server BSS SGSN GGSN PSTN PSDN CN C D Gc Gr Gn Gi Gb Abis Gs B H BSS Base Station System BTS Base Transceiver Station BSC Base Station Controller RNS Radio Network System RNC Radio Network Controller CN Core Network MSC Mobile-service Switching Controller VLR Visitor Location Register HLR Home Location Register AuC Authentication Server GMSC Gateway MSC SGSN Serving GPRS Support Node GGSN Gateway GPRS Support Node A Nc 2G MS (voice only) 2G+ MS (voice & data) Node B RNC RNS Iub IuCS IuPS 3G UE (voice & data) Mc CS-MGW Nb ATM 57

58 3GPP rel5 ― IP Multimedia PSTN SS7 IP/ATM IP Network IP 58 Gb/IuPS
A/IuCS SS7 IP/ATM BTS BSC MSC Server VLR HSS AuC GMSC server BSS SGSN GGSN PSTN CN C D Gc Gr Gn Gi Abis Gs B H IM IP Multimedia sub-system MRF Media Resource Function CSCF Call State Control Function MGCF Media Gateway Control Function (Mc=H248,Mg=SIP) IM-MGW IP Multimedia-MGW Nc 2G MS (voice only) 2G+ MS (voice & data) Node B RNC RNS Iub 3G UE (voice & data) Mc CS-MGW Nb IuCS IuPS ATM IM IP MGCF IM-MGW MRF CSCF Mg IP Network 58

59 3GPP2 Defines IS-41 Evolution
3rd Generation Partnership Project “Two” Evolution of IS-41 to “all IP” more direct (skips ATM stage), but not any faster Goal of ultimate merger (3GPP + 3GPP2) remains 1xRTT – IP packets (like GPRS) 1xEVDO – Evolution data-optimized 1xEVDV – abandoned 3x – Triples radio data rates Universal Mobile Broadband (UMB) – abandoned 59

60 NextGen Networks (NGN) Converging
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 3GPP Release 4 3GPP IMS R5 3GPP IMS R6 TISPAN R1 3GPP2 MMD ITU-T NGN FG ATIS NGN FG Packet Cable 2.0 3GPP IMS R7 Following 3GPP lead 3GPP2 — CDMA2000 multi-media domain (MMD) based on 3GPP IMS R5 TISPAN — evolves NGN architecture for fixed networks based on 3GPP IMS ITU-T NGN Focus Group — venue to make TISPAN NGN a global spec ATIS NGN Focus Group — formally collaborating with ETSI as of April 2005 PacketCable Release 2.0 — aligning with portions of 3GPP 60

61 3GPP R7 / TISPAN IMS 61

62 IMS / NGN Vision One core network for “any access”
Based on IP, using IETF standards, with extensions Wireline and wireless transparency Access and bandwidth will be commodities; services are the differentiator Per-session control supports per-application quality of service (QoS) and per-application billing Voice is just application “Easily” integrated with other applications… 62

63 IMS Story: Convergence
Source: Team Analysis, Lucent Traditional Services TV Caller ID Phone Tools Push to Talk Wireline Packet Cable Wireless Wifi WiMax OSS/ BSS Access Delivery Media Functions Subscriber Data Application IMS Services Subscriber Data Media Functions IP Multimedia Subsystem 63

64 IMS / NGN Value Proposition
Generate new revenue from new services Per-session control allows IMS to guarantee QoS for each IP session, and enables differential billing for applications & content Reduce capital spending Converge all services on common infrastructure Focus limited resources on core competencies To date, mobile operators have had no incentive to deploy IMS for voice services 64

65 LTE and IMS LTE is an all-IP network
Not compatible with legacy voice services Assumes the use of IP Multimedia System (IMS) Initial LTE networks will be data only Initial LTE handsets will be multi-modal, supporting HSPA and earlier systems for voice telephony VOLGA Forum working on a fix Voice over LTE via Generic Access

66 Long Term Parallels: IN & IMS
Intelligent Network Free operators from equipment provider lock-in Separate applications from basic call control Open protocols and APIs for applications Intelligent Network Application Successes FreePhone, Mobile (HLR), Pre-paid, Voice mail, … 15 year summary: A few applications, very widely deployed 66

67 LTE’s System Architecture Evolution (SAE)
RAN (Radio access network) SGSN (Serving GPRS Support Node) PCRF (policy and charging function) HSS (Home Subscriber Server) MME (Mobility Management Entity) SAE (System Architecture Evolution) Diagram by Huawei

68 Mobile Service Revenues
> $800 billion in 2007, growing 6%-7% per year > $1 trillion by 2012 Voice services dominate: 81% SMS services: 9.5% ; All other non-voice services: 9.5% Source: Portio Research 68

69 Images courtesy of Jon Stern

70 Mobile Services Futures
Affordable open mobile Internet access coming Five competing 3.5G operators in US by 2010 Smart phone penetration soaring Operators’ control of handset software slipping iPhone and Android application stores, initiatives for Symbian, WinMobile, Adobe AIR, etc. 70

71 The Internet is the killer platform
Mobile Internet access driving 3G data usage Future business models an open question Slides from yesterday’s Mobile Broadband discussion, are available 71

72 Enormous technology change
but commercial issues trump technology and legal-regulatory trumps all

73 Outrageous ideas 5 GHz spectrum better than 700 MHz
2020: LTE* >80%; WiMAX* <15% * i.e. LTE family of networks vs WiMAX evolution Should ask: Wi-Fi vs LTE + WiMAX Value of TV white spaces: Secondary access Open 3 GHz – 10 GHz to all License exempt on secondary access basis

74 Brough Turner
Thank you ! Brough Turner

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