Presentation on theme: "EStrategy October 2000 1 eStrategy -- Day 1 Inventing Marketspace for Internet Success Two Day Workshop October 2000 Stuart Henshall."— Presentation transcript:
eStrategy October eStrategy -- Day 1 Inventing Marketspace for Internet Success Two Day Workshop October 2000 Stuart Henshall
eStrategy October Re-Inventing or Inventing?
eStrategy October Why eStrategy to invent the future? “No matter how good your product you are only 18 months away from failure.” “You can’t shrink yourself to greatness!” “Good Strategy is always subversive.” “Best Practice destroys companies and industries but still have to do it.” “Strategy as a Process of Discovery (rather than positioning)” “It is no good sticking to your knitting if there is no demand for sweaters.” “Strategy is where to you want to go and how to get there.” “Maximise knowledge creation / minimise risk.” Gates, Peters, Hamel, Porter, Prahalad, Nalebuff
eStrategy October Discussion: Exploring Our Perspectives How has your organization responded to the Internet? Where are your current web initiatives concentrated? E.g. B2B, B2C, C2B, or C2C? What new business model or net initiative do you find most interesting? What is your core business in 5 years time?
eStrategy October Outline: Day One - Inventing New Marketspace Orient & Explore the Driving Forces Changing Strategy Tools and Assessment Assess New Models Develop New Functionalities / Internet DNA Day Two - New Opportunities for Wealth Creation New Roles for COMsumers Synthesizing Emerging Business Issues Scanning Agenda Engaging the Organization
eStrategy October Bubble or new order?
eStrategy October “When new technologies disrupt entire industries, the worst thing you can do is stay close to your customers” Clayton Christensen “In the network economy, producing and consuming fuse into a single verb: prosuming” Kevin Kelly Not just technology but the power of: disruptive ideas
eStrategy October Are common references more than just talk? Globalization Intangibles Netification Atoms to Bits Speed - Real-time - 24/7/365 Mass Customization
eStrategy October Discussion: Yes or No? Will the web reshape your marketplace? Are new players most likely to re-shape your competitive landscape? Are your web initiatives a core business function? Will your organizational structure change significantly? Are you waiting for a web team to figure it out?
eStrategy October Evidence of real economic productivity in new processes? Typical Bank Transaction - 60 times! Teller $1.25 Phone $.54 Atm $.24 Internet $.02 Job application Health Care Co. Traditional $ Internet $.06 Truly efficient companies, particularly in the first couple of waves of change, will be able to drive (overall) productivity at 20% - 40% per year.” John Chambers - Cisco Sept. 2000
eStrategy October Discussion: Amazon or E-bay? Where would you place money for the long term? Amazon or E-bay? Why? Will Amazon ever make a profit? What assets justify Amazon’s valuation?
eStrategy October Where is your attention? Evolution in eMarkets Markets Industry Business Models Organizations Individuals
eStrategy October Starting points: How quickly are new Internet models proliferating that expand the scope, scale and markets for information assets? With exchange costs near zero how large is the opportunity for real-time information aggregation? If Consumer data and knowledge become the most important resource in the knowledge economy, who will control it?
eStrategy October Many to One C2B Many to Many C2C One to Many B2C End to End B2B Supply Driven Old World Customer - Led New World ? How will markets and approaches evolve? What will prevail?
eStrategy October What drivers are at work on Industry Structure? Integration driven by: Best practice in firm Avoidance of intermediate stage competition Economies of co-ordination Dis-integration driven by: Best practice outside the firm Rise of new entrants or new technologies and business models. Falling costs of co-ordination Where is the tipping point where all businesses become web-businesses?
eStrategy October How will knowledge types impact new economy business models? Knowledge that has been articulated and codified in words or numbers Can be retrieved from the tacit knowledge grid and transmitted relatively easily. Explicit Knowledge Tacit Knowledge Intuitions, perspectives, beliefs and values that result from experience Can best be communicated interpersonally through dialogue with use of metaphors The mindsets (or mental models of individuals and the collective mindsets of the organizational culture.
eStrategy October So many new ways to capture attention? Upcoming Data Explosion GPS systems Wireless SMART things, things that think, SENSORS Voice, voice activation Wearable always on computing Nano, manufacturing at the molecular level Genomics and Bio-informatics
eStrategy October Competing for Knowledge Competing for Attention Many to One C2B Many to Many C2C One to Many B2C End to End B2B Explicit Transparency Tacit Trust Demand Driven Idea Driven Open / Facilitating Closed/ Mediating Process Driven Supply Driven New marketspace fueled by knowledge / global connectivity. Different Knowledge Markets? How is competitive space changing? What opportunities for codification and standards? What’s the real worth of a datamine? How might new recipes be found? How will consumers gain leverage in data markets? Where are new forms of idea exchanges emerging?
eStrategy October Will new info aggregators rule? How quickly will your business become commoditized? lowest price / easy to switch direct sourcing transparent margins informed customers inventory eliminated multiple model and feature combinations new functionality scope vs scale agents see What % before current model breaks down? 10% now, 30%? Old value chain deconstructed, no meaning in old context! Profit a function of Innovation Recombinant models? New Alliances?
eStrategy October Efficiencies & Standards E-commerce changing traditional strategy approaches Efficiencies Connectivity Processes Recipes Aggregation Agents / Bots Navigators Info-mediaries Competing for Knowledge Competing for Attention Many to Many C2C One to Many B2C Idea Driven Open / Facilitating Explicit Transparency Tacit Trust Closed/ Mediating Process Driven Value Optimization Data Markets Operational Efficiency
eStrategy October Changing Rules for Consumer Attention Open source movement Competing for permission 1 to 1 marketing - personalization From killer website to web business Markets are conversations
eStrategy October Emerging knowledge markets driven by new interactions Conversations Facilitated Co-creation Customization Datamines Collaborative Filters Competing for Knowledge Competing for Attention Many to One C2B End to End B2B Idea Driven Open / Facilitating Explicit Transparency Tacit Trust Closed/ Mediating Process Driven Real-time Functions Privacy / Permission Efficiencies & Standards Data Markets Datamines Idea Exchanges
eStrategy October Competing for Knowledge Competing for Attention Many to One C2B Many to Many C2C One to Many B2C End to End B2B Explicit Transparency Tacit Trust Demand Driven Idea Driven Open / Facilitating Closed/ Mediating Process Driven Supply Driven Tomorrow’s attention? Are new functionalities coming from here?
eStrategy October Changing approaches to market C2C / P2P Real-time Privacy / Permission Value Optimization Operational Efficiency Customers Product Operational Community Market Connectivity
eStrategy October Current Models and Tools Learning Objectives: How do you model your business? Describe your planning system. What’s in your strategy toolkit? Overturning strategic assumptions!
eStrategy October Discussion: Starting Point Modeling the Business As a group select a business, either one you all use or one someone can represent. Using post-its, how would you model it? How and where is the value created? How are the components defined?
eStrategy October Traditional Strategy Assumptions and Themes Industry Structure is a given Differentiation within a structure possible Limited number of Strategic Options Stability of Industry Structures Barriers to Entry 70’s How do you Integrate? 80’s How do you explain profits? 90’s How do you root in competencies? 00’s ? Create wealth in a Knowledge Economy? 10’s ? Facilitate migration in ecological systems???? Did we see the underlying patterns and assumptions?
eStrategy October Old Views of Strategy are dead! Industry Structure: View tries to predict winners, using a static view that if the structure is A then the profit is B. Helps to explain why winners are winners. (Porter) Guru Think: Adapted from current excellent companies and written into management books. (Hamel & Prahalad)
eStrategy October Getting a flavor for eStrategy? CK Prahalad-1999 Theory of innovation and discovery Create a social architecture and get individuals at the heart of the process Values give energy and enthusiasm to us all We need to develop communities of interest Continued searching for new sources of advantage Being unique. Creating wealth, reducing risk in new investments and use of manager’s time. Inventing new rules and new games. Inventing new market space Providing new functionality Creating new networks Stimulating new wealth creation
eStrategy October Why is e redefining strategy? Ecological Emerging Endless Energetic Engaging Entertaining Enveloping Environmental Discuss: How does your planning process work? Who? Participants? Time? Frequency? Resource allocations Play?
eStrategy October Three challenges for the eStrategist Strategic opportunities are created by the spontaneous creation of new business models. (Strategies are solutions that deal with problems) Opportunities are created by industry transitions, but to understand transitions need to turn industries upside down. Stimulating growth that generates further learning by the network or whole system.
eStrategy October Plus…. Most companies wreck their own strategies Sustaining a unique position requires trade- offs. Trade-offs are incompatibilities between positions that create the need for choice. –Providing more of A necessitates less of B –Serving Customer X well means not serving customer Y. Tradeoffs increase the cost of imitation and thwart competitors Michael Porter
eStrategy October And…..Change can be difficult. Beware of simple singular changes Activities are complementary when changes that increase the effectiveness of some activities in the group influence change to take place in others. Only a small % (<5%) of co’s do all three simultaneoulsly Boundaries StructuresProcesses Importance Uncertainty Change Renewal
eStrategy October An emerging school of thought?
eStrategy October Why do your customers buy from you, why don’t they go to a competitor, or make it (do it) themselves? Which competitor do you admire most? Why? In what respects are you different? What is unique about you? How do you justify your superiority claim? How do you sustain your uniqueness? Why can’t competitors not do the same thing and in that way compete away your competitive advantage? Where do you make your strategic investments, that allow you to maintain your distinctiveness? Yesterday’s strategy questions: asked about a business
eStrategy October Changing concepts new economic networks non-linear growth more gives more make virtuous circles follow the free anticipate the cheap feed the web first knowledge resources the net wins chaordic organisations shifting boundaries of loyalty and affiliation
eStrategy October Network Economics Exploit the “Network Effect Differentiate your information product Don’t overprotect your property. Lock-in Users (& Employees) Cooperate on Standards Five Key Rules Shapiro & Varian Data Information Knowledge Wisdom
eStrategy October Changing Forms of Value Creation Integrator (linear to market) P&G, Nestle, NZDB Layer Player (horizontal resources) Temporary Employment Agency Market Manager (e.g. portal) Sabre, Autobytel, Marshall Industries Orchestrater (Knowledge Strategies) Nike, Sara Lee
eStrategy October Linking the Chain Figure 1: Inter-enterprise Business Processes Enabled by E-Commerce Applications
eStrategy October Figure 7: Key Application Drivers for I-Markets Integrating applications
eStrategy October Source: Cisco Model: good/services, knowledge and intangibles Flows & Influence
eStrategy October How do you create a value web? M Sawhney Business 2.0
eStrategy October Focus on Customers M Sawhney Business 2.0
eStrategy October M Sawhney Business 2.0
eStrategy October Discussion: Modeling II Reviewing your model, the Cisco and Swahney examples. Could new ways emerge to model your example? Reviewing your model what are the four or five functions that are most important? Why? Underlying structure? Influence? What issues are emerging for how we should begin to model our organizations?
eStrategy October New Models! Learning Objectives new models functionalities web taxonomies client is server swarms! pricing / strategies / usability
eStrategy October How shall I shop? From aggregated buy to auction!
eStrategy October Real time payments without a bank! How will I pay?
eStrategy October How will I network? New methods to share and distribute!
eStrategy October Species versus species Fast Company August 2000 New competitive landscape Genetic structure Idea genes new DNA of value Viruses infect the network
eStrategy October Web Taxonomy and Functionalities Where is the gene pool? How do you categorize them? Can you identify new functionalities? Are new hives emerging? Best of web searches+
eStrategy October “Functionalities” the DNA for tomorrow’s strategist! Functionalities are the DNA which enable the business to interact with its customers Just as the different genomes contribute to success or failure of an animal species so it is with these business models – only life and death is faster!
eStrategy October Functionalities for emerging marketspace Deconstruct any internet business into its component functionalities and show how the “genes” combine to create the business and thus its value. Competitors with more of the right genes will ultimately destroy businesses with inferior DNA. Possible clues for the investor and manager.
eStrategy October Discussion: Creating Corporate DNA! Functionality: How might changing Internet functionality re-define your model? Reorganize as the customers value star? Intermediation: Identify intermediaries that change the proposition behind your business or industry. Using the additional functionalities identified in the list identify new possible combinations. What value added benefits are provided by this proposition? Who’s who in the food chain? Are new possible species emerging?
eStrategy October Explore new marketspace Metrics for knowledge and attention Evolving web functionalities Developing the value star around cognitive space?
eStrategy October Cautions for Revolutionaries Consider some metrics to identify: Where are there scaling bottlenecks? Similarly where will new points of friction arise? Will everything scale? We need to also look for those things that won’t scale. E.g. customer support is having difficulty scaling. How do you handle flash point crowds? What is your web site coefficient? Where are you in the food chain? How many other web sites rely on you and vice versa? Of those you rely on what are their web site coefficients? In a community and cooperative world is your web site the coefficient king? Are you measuring inflows and outflows? Is your COMsumer community knowledge base and power increasing or decreasing? Are you actively connecting new markets, intermediating or facilitating? What metrics are you using to define the above? Are you measuring your adaptation and change. What level of transparency exists on your site? What happens if every one you ever did business with pooled their information? Simply everything is on the net.
eStrategy October Possible trajectory for COMsumer empowerment Information aggregation Customized personalized Interactions Empowered COMsumers participate in personal information markets Tipping Point Significance COMsumer, the word coined to describe new empowered communities comes from the Latin com plus sumere meaning - to take together.
eStrategy October Richness Reach Traditional marketing trade-off Direct Scope / Scale Transparent values / prices 24/7 -- Real-time Search / Finding Multipliers Info-mediaries Rich Info Changing role of information from a suppliers point of view E- marketing enabled
eStrategy October Framing aggregation power from a consumer point of view Richness Value of connectivity Traditional marketing trade-off E- marketing enabled Aggregation power driven by increasing computing power and declining cost of connectivity. From singular to community aggregation.
eStrategy October Who will obtain value from mass customization? Quality of Relationships Value of connectivity How is this space expanding? Internet communications fueling massive new data sources. Think consumer information accounts and info- markets Traditional marketing trade-off E- marketing enabled
eStrategy October Empowering communities of consumers Quality of Relationships Value of connectivity How is this space expanding? COMsumer Empowerment COMsuming Communities Real-time information aggregation of consumer owned data records. Records reside with individuals and communities E- marketing enabled Traditional marketing trade-off
eStrategy October COMsumer forces at play How quickly will your business be commoditized? How long before real dot-com enabled communities of consumers emerge / are empowered? What is the role of transparency and trust? At what point is data collection an invasion of privacy and permission withdrawn? What is the impact of “real-time” on developing new consumer functionalities?
eStrategy October Broad trend implications The customers are in charge; a clear shift in the balance of power to customers (1to1 marketing) Shifting the base of profits from data to information to knowledge to insights! Shifting basis for Market influence from vertical integration to horizontal relationships, rise of alliances From “proprietary-to-vendor” to open systems Market share to competency share to share of mind From quality to cycle time to real-time
eStrategy October The COMsumer Manifesto
eStrategy October COMsumers a new stage of e-commerce The future will be shaped by new exchanges between communities of consumers empowered by the further evolution of the Internet. The premise is that information belonging to communities of consumers will be the most important resource in the new knowledge economy. COMsumer, the word coined to describe these communities comes from the Latin com plus sumere meaning - to take together.
eStrategy October The COMsumer Manifesto
eStrategy October Two Day Workshop October 2000 Stuart Henshall eStrategy -- Day 2 The COMsumer Manifesto
eStrategy October Don Tapscott Business 2.0
eStrategy October New roles for consumers Consumer Power Communities evolution and examples minds.com
eStrategy October Personal information markets What’s left if your consuming community takes charge? COMsumer hives Demand driven Highly efficient and responsive information markets Info-portfolios We own so we care
eStrategy October COMsumer challenges to organizations Internet courtesy means seamlessly providing your customers with electronic copies of all transactions into their info-accounts Standards and formats for seamless data exchanges will grow in importance. Real-time aggregation will enable the info records to be held by the individual consumers Invest in creating new data-markets, rather than exploiting existing data mines, turn over your corporate databases about your customers to them!
eStrategy October Info-Markets Blind Packets Negotiation without name My Data Private my eyes only Our Info Community Leverage Data for Sale My info for payment Private PublicPrivate Public If the COMsumers own their own data, is this how they think about it? Info-Accounts
eStrategy October Privacy approaches proliferating
eStrategy October Privacy and security As data becomes more contested, competition for information will intensify. Consumer privacy will be more frequently violated. Rich, nameless, but highly distributed and encrypted data records are possible. Consumers will soon recognize that they do not have to share their info or data, By negotiating for their data they can either save money, or simply make dollars by selling their information or time. How much is known about you? How accurate is it? How is the data exchanged, and do you have any control of the standard or format?
eStrategy October Possible models: How might they be brought together? Go Fetch - Changing the couriers paradigm. My purchase, my collection system. Anti-port - Who should own customer feedback? It’s our feedback! Nutrinomics - sensors, nutritional information and genomics combine Car purchase to meta-market; associated leverage.
eStrategy October Panel Session
eStrategy October Emerging Business Issues Empowering consumers Money making in a Napster world? Networks Intangibles etc.
eStrategy October Will COMsumers emerge by traditional means? Even now, COMsumers are Accumulating transaction information Changing their behavior by searching the web for new functionalities Listing their preferences for future purchases The age of community owned information assets and info-exchanges for info-funds is just around the corner Will information strategies change? Will product and services strategies change? Could other possible systems approaches emerge?
eStrategy October Redirect information resources to responding! Facilitate new markets don’t mediate a fixed space Provide transparent information and docking (interconnect) systems. No record --- no business. Adopt new adaptive approaches to information architecture and standards. Turn over your corporate database to your customers. Consider measuring the rate with which your COMsuming communities are learning.
eStrategy October Plentiful information; COMsumer Product and Service Strategies Look to other scarcities that help to develop the value of their products and sustain their position. Focus on design. Add tactile and personal touches Generally the trend to transparency will make products and services delivery more functional, descriptive, factual, guaranteed, purpose driven. Focus on integration, interconnectedness, and longevity or upgradablilty. Re-evaluate your media position and communication mix. Recognize your developers and personalize their contributions.
eStrategy October A different form of paradigm "I realized that this wasn't about swapping MP3s [music files] but a cool new technology." It was the basis of a New Age search engine--one that wouldn't just search for music on people's computers but would hunt down anything anyone wanted to anonymously share with the outside world,” Gene Kan 23 "The idea of file sharing is the most important development on the Web since the browser……. One of the problems with the recent evolution of the Internet is that it has become too centralized……. It's all up to something in the middle to determine what you see. Gnutella's technology blows that up. It mirrors the original architecture of the Internet.” Marc Andreesen - Netscape Founder
eStrategy October Changing the world?
eStrategy October (1) The user logs on to the database, adding his music catalogs to a master database. (2) A song search is initiated through the Napster database. (3) Database finds the song on computer C. (4) User downloads song in MP3 format directly from computer C. How far can the Napster community go? Brokering new relationships!
eStrategy October Swarms: A bottom-up phenomena Fish in schools, birds in flocks, bees and ants in swarms, coordinated masses of individual “agents” Boids Craig Reynolds As a Boid maintain a minimum distance from other objects and Boids in the environment Try to match velocities with boids in its neighborhood Try to move towards the perceived center of mass of Boids in its neighborhood
eStrategy October Not everything can swarm Tangible goods and process delivery –facilitated by banks –more transparent - more involving What kind of organization rewards individuals for knowledge, –best leverages the co-creation activity? –rise of the incubator? Is there any difference between employees and customers? What are the implications for the firm?
eStrategy October Scanning from the future What is the risk / opportunity for implementing eStrategy approaches? e-zines intranets discussion groups etc
eStrategy October Discussion: eStrategy challenges What key challenges are eStrategy concepts presenting to the future of your business? And how will you address? Brainstorm a list! Agree on three key questions we must ask as estrategists?
eStrategy October New strategy questions? - asked about community What is your community network proposition for value creation? What holds it together? Which new start-up or functionality do you admire the most? Why? What is the unique combinatorial that makes you different? What is unique about this market? How do you facilitate learning and knowledge creation? How do you build alliances and further partnerships? Why would others prefer to join rather than compete? Where is the personal time invested, that enables the community to expand its connectivity?
eStrategy October new voices new conversations new perspectives new passions experimentation experimentation vs. risk management Gary Hamel Emergent strategies/ hidden rules - strategic conversations
eStrategy October Users guide to holding a strategic conversation Create a hospitable climate Establish an initial group, including key decision makers and outsiders Include outside information and outside people Look ahead far in advance of decisions Begin by looking at the present and past Conduct preliminary scenario Work in smaller groups Play out the conversation Live in a permanent strategic conversation The question of identity: evading the “Official Future” Strategic conversations on a small scale Peter Schwartz “The Art of the Long View”
eStrategy October Intellectual Leverage Capability Competence The issue now for strategists and market makers?
eStrategy October The emerging “involve me” world Trust Transparency High Low HighLow “Trust me” “Tell me” “Show me” “Involve me As trust diminishes, the demand for transparency in the form of assurance mechanisms increases Shell International SDG
eStrategy October Knowledge turns Idea derived from Inventory turns indicator of the industrial era Knowledge Turns = Ability to build upon Other’s Capabilities * Level of Distrust OC’s can be Individuals, Suppliers, Customers, Alliances, LOB’s etc Finding Faults Finding Strengths TRUSTDISTRUST Multiplier scale runs from 0.01 to 100 a very sensitive indicator; see “The Network Multiplier” at
eStrategy October Discussion starters: Developing the scanning agenda Scanning for trust Scanning to resolve whether information really wants to be free How will you empower your customers? How will money be made in a Napster style world? Think upstream
eStrategy October Old Assumptions New Beliefs Research Scan Monitor Implications for Strategy Discussion: Developing the scanning agenda
eStrategy October Beyond the knowledge tree Leif Edvinsson Scandia
eStrategy October Knowledge processes for Top Team, Working Leaders, Front Line Staff Leadership (competency acquisition) TT –stretch capabilities / develop future scenarios, stakeholder network / knowledge goals (Hamel), Learning (knowledge development) WL –deepen understanding of what is / past history, community of practice network (Senge) Leverage (capability enhancement) FLS –harness speed, scale, scope of present activities, employees network of contacts (Kaplan) All Build Links to the Future
eStrategy October Inventing the Future Learning Leverage Leverage advantages by extending scope and scale Maintain vitality and deepen the understanding Stretch capabilities for continuous improvement Innovate or Evaporate ! FLS WL TT
eStrategy October Networking integrates the basis for eStrategy Knowledge Strategies
eStrategy October eStrategy: Summary of concepts Innovative concepts rule - short life cycles - the Internet is a revolutionary medium for positive economic feedback loops Intangible assets are very much more valued at last! If possible rent -- don’t own -- your needed tangible assets Complexity theory shows promise to help create tomorrow’s “community of influence”- driven organizations Navigating the scenarios of the landscape for maximum reach and richness with minimum risk for consumers will see the development of community-owned networking portals whose leaders will invent the future Consumers will claim the market capital represented by their personal information for themselves -- by becoming COMsumers!!
eStrategy October Communication process Investigate & Follow-up Building the Flight Simulator for my Network Giving the “Elevator Speech!”
eStrategy October New E-Strategy Essentials Conversations between a community of stakeholders about their con-joint future A future navigating process for the agreed direction -strategic intent - which can learn from uncertainty The community delivers the value network desired for all stakeholders and has the capability for ongoing self-renewal From Value Appropriation to Value Creation for the Community is the new moral contract for delivering value to the wider society and growing their organization
eStrategy October Future of eStrategy Strategy must be rooted in the language the community uses and the meaning of these individualised (intellectual / mental) concepts exploited through scenarios - so creating strategic options for the community. Thus defining the new or augmented knowledge turns needs of the community is the prime output of the generation of strategic options.
eStrategy October Discussion: Communicating eStrategy Investigate & Follow-up Building the Flight Simulator for my Network Giving the “Elevator Speech!” What will we tell the people back home? Role play your first meetings with your colleagues In groups prepare a 5 min “event” for presentation to: –your subordinates, your peers, your boss, respectively. Everyone should have a role in these attempts at “theatre-sports”!
eStrategy October Are you prepared to? Radically change the way you think about work and your roles in organizations (especially large ones) Make your organization a web-business Expand your ‘community’ networks by a factor of 10+ Scan for uncertainties and new functionalities Extend your strategic conversation to cultivate new forms of involvement and feedback. Seek to participate in world benchmarks and standard setting Proactively manage your information assets
eStrategy October Become a COMsumer Activist on data Demanding on transparency Understanding of consuming communities Facilitate innovation and empower markets Go and encourage your organization to embrace the COMsumer movement.
eStrategy October eStrategy -- Inventing Marketspace for Internet Success