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Wireless Networks and Services 10 Years Down the Road Technology/Business Panel Discussion N. K. Shankaranarayanan AT&T Labs-Research

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Presentation on theme: "Wireless Networks and Services 10 Years Down the Road Technology/Business Panel Discussion N. K. Shankaranarayanan AT&T Labs-Research"— Presentation transcript:

1 Wireless Networks and Services 10 Years Down the Road Technology/Business Panel Discussion N. K. Shankaranarayanan AT&T Labs-Research April 7, 2009 IEEE WCNC 2009 Budapest, Hungary

2 Acknowledgment Discussions with: Byoung-Jo “J” Kim Robert Miller

3 Wireless networks and services in 2014 to 2019 Currently planned cycle of standardization (LTE, 802.16m/WiMAX, 802.11) would be in mature deployment phase Wireless networks and services would have migrated to IP-based networks Mobile user experience –Like today’s Ethernet: 10 to 100 Mb/s –Latency improvements may lag bit rate improvements Enables thin clients, games

4 Mobile services Mobile person-to-person communication services –Likely to continue as primary driver for consumer mobile communicatons services –Dominant mode of person-to-person communications will be optimized for mobile Voice/video telephony & messages, e-mail, short video clips Battery and device constraints Shorter messages easier to generate and receive Variety of other applications will thrive once enabled by broadband connectivity (& unlimited pricing) –M-commerce, Sensing & monitoring, Healthcare –QoS provisions (esp. bandwidth-rich applications) depend on willingness to pay Uniquely mobile applications & services will be interesting –Location-aware, context-aware –Mobile games –Participatory experiences

5 Wireless Networks & Services Broadband mobile (e.g. UMTS/HSPA) has been deployed in wide manner in recent years.. Large set of IP-based applications got enabled once user got few hundred kb/s (& unlimited data pricing plans) As we progress from {few Mb/s -> 10 Mb/s -> 100 Mb/s} Ethernet-like connectivity.. –Expect trends that played out in home & office computers Explosion of functionality will be driven by innovation in data (IP-based) applications.. Next 5 to 10 years will witness strong growth in user demands of data applications –Need to maintain broadband experience as we.. –.. accommodate more number of users –.. offer higher peak bit rates.

6 Inflexion point ~ 2008 Smartphones (e.g. iPhone) ushered in new era of mobile applications Inflexion point in 2008 – popularity of broadband mobile data applications Following factors & trends will play key role in next 5 to 10 years –Multipurpose mobile computing+communication device –User interface innovation crossed critical threshold of usability –WiFi / cellular – transparent to applications –Unlimited data plans –Openly available SDK with large target audience –Application development by small developers –Location services, push/notification, security manged by device/OS

7 Mobile Devices Form factor of hand-held devices seem to already show a lot of convergence –Small & easy-to-carry versus display large enough to be usable –On-screen or folding/sliding keyboard/keypad Battery life expected to continue as key constraint –Higher bandwidth connections –Video & screen usage Mobile devices will serve as target platform for innovation and convergence of personal computing/communication applications Wild cards / Innovations –Foldable display –Battery technology – capacity & quick charging

8 Mobile computing trends Location information integrated and managed actively by device and OS – privacy issues Use of network-based computing technology (e.g. cloud computing) to manage constraints of device (e.g. thin clients, suspended states) Security paradigms to manage authentication (m-commerce etc) and separation of personal/business space Variety of specialized applications – v. general purpose programs Easier input –Increased use of voice-input –Natural language processing

9 Wireless network deployment Strong trends pointing to smaller cell sizes –More users (with same spectrum) -> smaller cell sizes –Higher bit rates (with same battery) -> smaller cell sizes –Higher bit rates -> data applications more usable, more popular - > more users Local wireless will need to be integral part of mobile experience –Low-power, low-cost access points are feasible in buildings (thanks to wired broadband) Managing heterogeneous networks and local/wide area will be crucial –Either Active Management or Smart co-existence –Transparent to users and applications Wild cards –Spectrum sharing / re-use

10 Local wireless Critically needed for solving battery life and capacity constraints Likely that both Unlicensed (WiFi) and/or Licensed (femtocell) spectrum approaches will thrive in 5 to 10 years Leverages availability of lower-cost (free?) wired broadband Same advanced radio techniques will get applied to both Deployment model –WiFi: unlicensed spectrum, general purpose use –Femtocells: optimized for mobile devices, controlled by mobile operators Battery life –WiFi: Not part of original design, being added now –Femtocells: Sleep mode behavior optimized for cellular Availability to wide-area (guest) user –Likely to be addressed better by femtocells –WiFi factoid: Proliferation of APs, but decrease in free hotspots Interference and co-existence –Decentralized (auto-configuration) approaches

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