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Markets for Electric Power Produced in Bulgaria Sofia – March 12, 2007 Krassimir Nenov, Commercial Operations Director Enel Maritza East 3 AD.

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Presentation on theme: "Markets for Electric Power Produced in Bulgaria Sofia – March 12, 2007 Krassimir Nenov, Commercial Operations Director Enel Maritza East 3 AD."— Presentation transcript:

1 Markets for Electric Power Produced in Bulgaria Sofia – March 12, 2007 Krassimir Nenov, Commercial Operations Director Enel Maritza East 3 AD

2 2 …..to regional markets… … towards one single European market From national markets….. UCTE System IPS-UPS System Iberia North Pool FR North Pool PT UK Centrel GR RO EX JUG ES IT BG EU countries Non EU countries South East EU Central EU + Centrel + Italy DE Integration of European power markets An on-going integration process across Europe

3 3 Sixth market in Europe as regional market 114.9Germany 116.7France 78.5UK 79.5Italy 66.1 Spain 52 Installed capacity (GW) Balkans Albania Macedonia Bosnia Croatia Bulgaria Romania Greece Serbia A regional market of significant size made up of small and interconnected national markets Total internal demand (TWh) 221 Germany France UK Italy Spain Balkans Albania Macedonia Bosnia Croatia Bulgaria Romania Greece Serbia Source:Enel Analysis on UCTE data

4 4 An interconnected system Net transfer capacity Importing countries Source:UCTE, Enel Analysis Exporting countries Transit Countries FRY RO Total NTC, GW Bulgaria2.5 GW Romania4.1 GW Bosnia- Erzegovina1.3 GW Albania0.5 GW Serbia5.1 GW Macedonia0.9 GW Grecia1.6 GW Croazia3.1 GW Net Interchange 2005, TWh BG BiH HR SI AL FYROM IT GR HU UA MD TR 750 MW 1100 MW 900 MW 1300 MW 500 MW 150 MW 950 MW 800 MW 700 MW 650 MW 1100 MW 300 MW 400 MW 200 MW 400 MW 500 MW 600 MW 700 MW

5 5 … with a significant mix differential Oil & gas Hydro Romania 100% = Coal/ lignite Nuclear AlbaniaBosniaBulgariaCroatiaMaced.Serbia.Greece  Differentiated mix in each country  Significant role of component of low cost generation (lignite / Hydro / Nuclear)  Cost spread reflected in import/export flows Source:Enel Analysis 2005 data Capacity mix … and a further need of interconnections

6 6 A resurging economy  Many countries recovering from 90’s crisis  More aggressive expectation for riskier countries  Slower growth pace for biggest markets (BG, RO, GR) Source:World Bank, Consensus Economics, Consensus Forecast, EIU GDP USD/per capita, 2005 GDP CAGR ’00-’05 actual GDP CAGR ’06-’10 expected GDP CAGR ’11-’15 expected Greece 4.1%2.8%2.5% Croatia 4.1% 4.2% Romania 5.2%5.1%4.2% Bulgaria 5.0%4.6%3.8% Macedonia 1.7%4.5% Albania 6.0% 5.5% Bosnia 5.0%5.5%5.0% Serbia 4.8%5.0%

7 7.. with a significant demand growth potential Bosnia Romania Bulgaria Greece Macedonia Croazia Albania Serbia Electricity Demand (TWh)Expected vs. historical growth rate Croatia Serbia. Bulgaria Greece Bosnia Albania Fyrom Romania Overall Source:UCTE, Enel Forecasting 193 Twh 221 Twh 250 TWh CAGR +2.8% CAGR +2.4%

8 8 Project opportunities FRY RO BG BiH HR SI AL FYROM IT GR HU UA TR Romania:  Conversion from oil to coal of Braila Plant (350MW)  Cernavoda Nuclear power plant, unit 3 and 4 construction (2x700 MW)  Rehabilitation of Lignite Complexes (Craiova 800MW, Rovinari 1100MW, Turceni 1500 MW) Bulgaria:  Extension of Martiza East 3 lignite plant ( MW)  Belene Nuclear power plant construction (2x1000MW) Greece:  New CCGT (400MW) New opportunities account for 7000 MW of additional capacity

9 9 Other projects in the ex-Yugoslavia region Net transfer capacity Importing countries Source:Enel Analysis Exporting countries Transit Countries FRY RO BG BiH HR SI AL FYROM GR HU SERBIA/Kosovo/Montenegro ►Lignite at Kolubara, Kostolac, Kosovo and Plevija ►Gas CHP at Novi San, Beograd and Subotica ►Hydro power plants in all regions MACEDONIA ►Lignite at Bitola site ►Gas CHP in Skoplje ►Hydro power plants in all regions CROZIA ►CCGT at Zagreb ►Coal at Plomin ►Hydro power plants and wind fields BOSNIA ►Lignite at Tuzla, Kakani, Bugojno, Kongora, Uglievik, Gacko ►Hydro power plants ALBANIA ►CCGT at Valona and Korca ►Hydro power plants LigniteCoalGas/OilHydro Total Project capacity GW ….but most of these projects are not expected to be in operation before 2015

10 10 Regional market: new assets market position (2015) Coal Nuclear Oil LigniteGas Hydro+CHP Belene Maritza East 3 Ext. Bulgarian/Serbian Lignite Romanian Lignite Greek CCGTs Belene and Maritza East 3 Extension are extremely competitive on a Regional basis where they would serve as a base-load generators

11 11 Drivers of an expanding energy market for SEE  Significant demand growth potential  Strong need for investment in new capacity  Additional connection grids with neighbouring countries  Early stages of market liberalization and privatization  Favorable environment for new entrants thanks to EU rules A growing and liberalizing macro-regional market


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