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PROBABILISTIC DIETARY EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT TO PESTICIDE RESIDUES.

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Presentation on theme: "PROBABILISTIC DIETARY EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT TO PESTICIDE RESIDUES."— Presentation transcript:

1 PROBABILISTIC DIETARY EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT TO PESTICIDE RESIDUES

2 STRUCTURE Applications of probabilistic exposure assessments Pesticide conceptual model Exposure assessment to chlorpyrifos Input data Model settings Results of assessment Information on uncertainty Contribution of food items

3 APPLICATIONS Risk assessment for pesticide authorisation Risk assessment of registered pesticides Characterisation of variability and uncertainty Identification of the main contributions to the intake

4 EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT N Iterations Frequency Pear Residue Apple Residue Orange Residue Exposure = Σ(Consumption * Residue) / Bodyweight Consumption P A O 2 1 N 4 3

5 Exposure assessment

6 PESTICIDE CONCEPTUAL MODEL PESTICIDE RESIDUE INTAKE FOOD SURVEY PESTICIDE RESIDUE MONITORING PROGRAMME CONSUMPTIO OF RAW AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY (RAC) ADJUSTED RESIDUE (PAC)

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10 ACUTE EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT PESTICIDE: Chlorpyrifos POPULATION: Infants of the Basque Country 8 to 12 months old PERIOD:1 day

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12 INPUT DATA  Food consumption dataFood diary and recipes. Basque Country  BodyweightFood diary and recipes. Basque Country  Pesticide residue dataMonitoring programmes CCAA Spain MRLs spanish legislation

13 INPUT DATA  Observed data Data(0.08,0.24,0.039,0.26,0.68,0.43,0.20,0.06,0.63,0.61,1.6,0.38,0. 53,0.94)  Histogram  Parametric distribution Lognorm(1.43,0.83) Lognorm

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15 UNIT-TO-UNIT VARIABILITY Composite sample MEAN ANALYSIS ACUTE EXPOSURE ?

16 UNIT TO UNIT VARIABILITY OPTIONS No variability adjustment Concentration = mean for all units Variability GVDSP raw lab data Laboratory data for individual units Variability GVDSP lognormal Concentration in units described by a lognormal distribution Variability RIKILT No. Units in composite sample Concentration in units described by a Bernouilli distribution

17 LOGNORMAL VARIABILITY R Log(R,f(R,  )) Distribution residues units x r1 +x r3x r2 + Intake = Distribution of residues Composite samples Consumption: 3 apples

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20 MEDIAN MEAN sd 95 th p Minimun 99 th p

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22 97.5 th p 99 th p

23 VALIDATION: Cumulative distributions

24 CHARACTERISING UNCERTAINTY  Processing factors: with vs. without  No analysisMRL vs. 0  Samples < LORLOR vs 0  Variability with vs. without REFERENCE MODEL: WITH PROCES. WITH VARIAB MRL LOR

25 97.5 th P No proc factors Reference model LOR = 0 MRL = 0 No variability

26 CONTRIBUTION OF FOOD ITEMS 95th Percentile


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