1. Surviving Natures Most Powerful Storm: Cost Effective Methods to Reduce Tornado Casualties Kevin M. Simmons, Ph.D. Austin College Daniel Sutter, Ph.D. Troy University

2. Economic and Societal Impacts of Tornadoes By Kevin M. Simmons and Daniel Sutter © 2010, 296 pages in paperback ISBN: 978-1-878220-99-8 AVAILABLE February 2011 from the American Meteorological Society and the University of Chicago Press

3. Killer Tornadoes of 2011 Average annual number of killer tornadoes 2000-2010 Average annual number of killer tornadoes 2000-2010 –21 Number of killer tornadoes 2011 Number of killer tornadoes 2011 –58

4. May 22, 2011 – Joplin Missouri Tornado struck at 5:41 p.m. on Sunday, May 22, 2011 Tornado struck at 5:41 p.m. on Sunday, May 22, 2011 Rated EF-5 Rated EF-5 EF-5 strength for a length of 6 miles and ¾ mile wide EF-5 strength for a length of 6 miles and ¾ mile wide 161 Fatalities and over 1000 injuries 161 Fatalities and over 1000 injuries Single worst casualty total since records began in 1950 Single worst casualty total since records began in 1950

5. Street in Joplin – Before Google Street Level

6. Same Street in Joplin - After

8. How to Survive Such a Storm Winds from an EF-5 tornado will destroy almost anything in it’s path. Winds from an EF-5 tornado will destroy almost anything in it’s path. To survive, you must be in a hardened (engineered) room or shelter. To survive, you must be in a hardened (engineered) room or shelter.

9. Comparing Benefits versus Cost When faced with such tragedy, we are reminded that life is priceless. When faced with such tragedy, we are reminded that life is priceless.

10. The Tradeoff Such a large event prompts discussion of public subsidies for saferooms. Such a large event prompts discussion of public subsidies for saferooms. Several states, most notably Oklahoma have had such programs. Several states, most notably Oklahoma have had such programs. If public funds are used, there exists a tradeoff on potential uses of the same money to save lives elsewhere. If public funds are used, there exists a tradeoff on potential uses of the same money to save lives elsewhere. Value of Life estimates: Value of Life estimates: –A common range is $5-$10 million

11. Our Approach For each state we have calculated a “Cost Per Avoided Fatality” For each state we have calculated a “Cost Per Avoided Fatality” Inputs to the calculation: Inputs to the calculation: –Average annual fatalities –Average shelter cost –Housing Units –Discount Rate –Estimated shelter life

12. Example: Alabama Permanent Homes Housing Units (2010 Census – Single Detached) Housing Units (2010 Census – Single Detached)1,535,146 Average Annual Fatalities (1950-2011) Average Annual Fatalities (1950-2011)3.07 Shelter Cost Shelter Cost$2,500 Shelter Life Shelter Life 50 Years Discount Rate Discount Rate3%

13. Example: Alabama Mobile Homes Housing Units (2010 Census) Housing Units (2010 Census)291,373 Average Annual Fatalities (1950-2011) Average Annual Fatalities (1950-2011)4.26 Shelter Cost Shelter Cost$2,500 Shelter Life Shelter Life 50 Years Discount Rate Discount Rate3%

14. Estimate Cost Per Avoided Fatality Permanent Homes Permanent Homes $47.2 Million Mobile Homes Mobile Homes $6.5 Million

15. Estimate Cost Per Avoided Fatality With Some Consideration for Peace of Mind Permanent Homes Permanent Homes $22.2 Million Mobile Homes Mobile Homes $3.0 Million

16. Observations on Public Funding There appears some merit for mobile homes given the increased vulnerability There appears some merit for mobile homes given the increased vulnerability Permanent homes, however, are harder to justify Permanent homes, however, are harder to justify

17. Private Mitigation One way to examine the value of saferooms is to see if they affect the value of the property One way to examine the value of saferooms is to see if they affect the value of the property Study: Oklahoma County Residential Sales Study: Oklahoma County Residential Sales We were looking for any premium to sales price if a shelter was present We were looking for any premium to sales price if a shelter was present

18. Private Mitigation Results The presence of a shelter added about 3.5% to the sales price of the home The presence of a shelter added about 3.5% to the sales price of the home For our sample that was an increase of $4,200 to the average home For our sample that was an increase of $4,200 to the average home

19. Effectiveness of NWS Tornado Warnings One easy comparison to test the effectiveness of warnings is to examine two years 1953 and 2011 One easy comparison to test the effectiveness of warnings is to examine two years 1953 and 2011

20. Effectiveness of NWS Tornado Warnings 1953 1953 519 Fatalities 41 Killer Tornadoes 72 Affected counties 78% F-3 or Higher 2011 2011 544 Fatalities 58 Killer Tornadoes 90 Affected counties 79% EF-3 or Higher

21. Fatality Rate 1953 1953 Population of Affected Counties 3.9 Million Fatality Rate Fatality Rate 131.7 per million 2011 2011 Population of Affected Counties 8.6 Million Fatality Rate Fatality Rate 64.3 per million

22. Continued Progress in Reducing Casualties Nocturnal Tornadoes Nocturnal Tornadoes A lethal tornado at 2:00 a.m. will kill over twice as many people as the same tornado occurring at 2:00 p.m. False Alarms False Alarms Our research shows that there is a “cry wolf” effect.

23. Thank You For Your Attention