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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Chapter 17 Probability Models

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide 17- 2 Bernoulli Trials The basis for the probability models we will examine in this chapter is the Bernoulli trial. We have Bernoulli trials if: there are two possible outcomes (success and failure). the probability of success, p, is constant. the trials are independent.

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide 17- 3 The Geometric Model A single Bernoulli trial is usually not all that interesting. A Geometric probability model tells us the probability for a random variable that counts the number of Bernoulli trials until the first success. Geometric models are completely specified by one parameter, p, the probability of success, and are denoted Geom(p).

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide 17- 4 The Geometric Model (cont.) Geometric probability model for Bernoulli trials: Geom(p) p = probability of success q = 1 – p = probability of failure X = # of trials until the first success occurs P(X = x) = q x-1 p

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide 17- 5 Independence One of the important requirements for Bernoulli trials is that the trials be independent. When we don’t have an infinite population, the trials are not independent. But, there is a rule that allows us to pretend we have independent trials: The 10% condition: Bernoulli trials must be independent. If that assumption is violated, it is still okay to proceed as long as the sample is smaller than 10% of the population.

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Calculating Geometric Model 2 nd Distr Geometpdf( probability, # trials until first success) – use this for individual outcome Geometcdf (probability, #trials on or before first success) Slide 17- 6

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Geometric Model Example Suppose a cereal manufacturer puts pictures of famous athletes on cards in boxes of cereal. 20% of pictures contain Tiger Woods, 30% Lance Armstrong, and rest Serena Williams. A) What is the probability that we find our first Tiger Woods picture in the fifth box of cereal? B) What is the probability that we find our first Tiger Woods picture by the time we open the fourth box? (1 st or 2 nd or 3 rd or 4 th box) Slide 17- 7

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide 17- 8 The Binomial Model A Binomial model tells us the probability for a random variable that counts the number of successes in a fixed number of Bernoulli trials. Two parameters define the Binomial model: n, the number of trials; and, p, the probability of success. We denote this Binom(n, p).

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide 17- 9 The Binomial Model (cont.) In n trials, there are ways to have k successes. Read n C k as “n choose k.” Note: n! = n x (n-1) x … x 2 x 1, and n! is read as “n factorial.”

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide 17- 10 The Binomial Model (cont.) Binomial probability model for Bernoulli trials: Binom(n,p) n = number of trials p = probability of success q = 1 – p = probability of failure X = # of successes in n trials P(X = x) = n C x p x q n-x

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Calculating Binomial Probability Models 2 nd DISTR Binompdf(number trials, probability success, success) – use for exact successes Binomcdf (number trials, probability success, success) – use for adding several probabilities Slide 17- 11

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Binomial Model Example Suppose a cereal manufacturer puts pictures of famous athletes on cards in boxes of cereal. 20% of pictures contain Tiger Woods, 30% Lance Armstrong, and rest Serena Williams. Find the probability of finding Tiger exactly twice among 5 boxes of cereal. Find the probability of finding Tiger at most 4 times among 5 boxes of cereal. Slide 17- 12

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide 17- 13 The Normal Model to the Rescue! When dealing with a large number of trials in a Binomial situation, making direct calculations of the probabilities becomes tedious (or outright impossible). Fortunately, the Normal model comes to the rescue…

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide 17- 14 The Normal Model to the Rescue (cont.) As long as the Success/Failure Condition holds, we can use the Normal model to approximate Binomial probabilities. Success/failure condition: A Binomial model is approximately Normal if we expect at least 10 successes and 10 failures: np ≥ 10 and nq ≥ 10

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide 17- 15 Continuous Random Variables When we use the Normal model to approximate the Binomial model, we are using a continuous random variable to approximate a discrete random variable. So, when we use the Normal model, we no longer calculate the probability that the random variable equals a particular value, but only that it lies between two values.

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Normal Models 2 nd DISTR Normalcdf (zscore lower, zscore upper) Use to find the mean and standard deviation Slide 17- 16

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Normal Model Example The Red Cross anticipates the need for at least 1850 units of O-negative blood. It estimates it will collect blood from 32,000 donors. Only 6% of people have O-negative blood. What is the chance that the Red Cross will receive at least 1850 units of O-negative blood? Use Slide 17- 17

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide 17- 18 What Can Go Wrong? Be sure you have Bernoulli trials. You need two outcomes per trial, a constant probability of success, and independence. Remember that the 10% Condition provides a reasonable substitute for independence. Don’t confuse Geometric and Binomial models. Don’t use the Normal approximation with small n. You need at least 10 successes and 10 failures to use the Normal approximation.

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide 17- 19 What have we learned? Bernoulli trials show up in lots of places. Depending on the random variable of interest, we might be dealing with a Geometric model Binomial model Normal model

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Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide 17- 20 What have we learned? (cont.) Geometric model When we’re interested in the number of Bernoulli trials until the next success. Binomial model When we’re interested in the number of successes in a certain number of Bernoulli trials. Normal model To approximate a Binomial model when we expect at least 10 successes and 10 failures. Between values

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