1. What Happened to the Asian Miracle?

2. The Asian Tigers Throughout the 1990s, Asian economies were reporting stellar rates of economic growth Throughout the 1990s, Asian economies were reporting stellar rates of economic growth Per Capita income has increased by a factor of ten over the past 30 years. Per Capita income has increased by a factor of ten over the past 30 years. Asian countries attracted over half of all capital inflows to developing countries Asian countries attracted over half of all capital inflows to developing countries

3. The Asian Tigers: GDP Growth Country19921993199419951996 Korea5.065.758.588.947.10 Indonesia6.466.5015.938.227.98 Malaysia7.808.359.249.468.58 Philippines.342.124.384.775.76 Singapore6.2910.4410.058.757.32 Thailand8.088.388.948.845.52

4. The Asian Tigers Throughout the 1990s, Asian economies were reporting stellar rates of economic growth Throughout the 1990s, Asian economies were reporting stellar rates of economic growth Suddenly, however, in the summer of 1997, Thailand devalued the Baht followed by devaluations of the Philippine Peso, the the Malaysian Ringgit, then the Indonesian Rupiah Suddenly, however, in the summer of 1997, Thailand devalued the Baht followed by devaluations of the Philippine Peso, the the Malaysian Ringgit, then the Indonesian Rupiah

5. The Asian Tigers

6. Throughout the 1990s, Asian economies were reporting stellar rates of economic growth Throughout the 1990s, Asian economies were reporting stellar rates of economic growth Suddenly, however, in the summer of 1999, Thailand devalued the Baht; followed by devaluations of the Philippine peso, the the Malaysian Ringgit, then the Indonesian Rupiah Suddenly, however, in the summer of 1999, Thailand devalued the Baht; followed by devaluations of the Philippine peso, the the Malaysian Ringgit, then the Indonesian Rupiah Following the devaluation, the region suffered a major contraction and persistently lower rates of economic growth. Following the devaluation, the region suffered a major contraction and persistently lower rates of economic growth.

7. The Asian Tigers: Post Crisis GDP Growth Country19981999200020012002 Korea-711936 Indonesia-131534 Malaysia-76804 Philippines3435 Singapore69-22 Thailand-114525

8. Why did Asia Collapse Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has been the wild man of the Asian crisis, blaming all his problems on manipulations by Jewish speculators Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has been the wild man of the Asian crisis, blaming all his problems on manipulations by Jewish speculators Was the Asian Crisis due to irrational speculation or were there real structural problems in Asia? Was the Asian Crisis due to irrational speculation or were there real structural problems in Asia?

9. The Good News On the surface, the Asian economies looked very strong On the surface, the Asian economies looked very strong High rates of economic growth High rates of economic growth High labor productivity growth High labor productivity growth High rates if investment financed by high domestic savings High rates if investment financed by high domestic savings Low government deficits Low government deficits

10. Investment Rates (% of GDP) Country19931994199519961997 Korea3536373834 Indonesia2931313031 Malaysia3740434142 Philippines2324222424 Singapore3732333537 Thailand3940414134 Taiwan2523232122

11. Savings Rates (% of GDP) Country19931994199519961997 Korea3434353333 Indonesia2829272727 Malaysia2733343739 Philippines1720171918 Singapore4650515151 Thailand3433333332 Taiwan2826252525

12. Labor Productivity Growth Country19931994199519961997 Thailand20191212-5

13. Government Deficits/Surplus (% of GDP) Country19931994199519961997 Korea.64.32.30.40.46 Indonesia.641.032.441.260 Malaysia.232.44.89.762.52 Philippines-1.461.04.57.28.06 Singapore15.6711.9313.0714.019.52 Thailand2.131.892.94.97-.32 Taiwan-3.88-1.73-1.09-1.34-1.68

14. More Good News Asian Stock and Real Estate Markets were booming Asian Stock and Real Estate Markets were booming

15. Stock Market Indices Country19901991199219931994 Korea6966106788661027 Indonesia417247274588469 Malaysia5055666431275971 Philippines6511151125631962785 Singapore11541490152424252239 Thailand61271189316821360 Taiwan43504600337760707111

16. However, underneath the good news…… Was Asian growth due to “inspiration” or “perspiration”? Was Asian growth due to “inspiration” or “perspiration”?

17. However, underneath the good news…… Was Asian growth due to “inspiration” or “perspiration”? Was Asian growth due to “inspiration” or “perspiration”? All the Asian countries had very high rated f labor productivity growth, where labor productivity is defined as All the Asian countries had very high rated f labor productivity growth, where labor productivity is defined as LP = Y/L (real output per labor hour) This measure of productivity omits an important input This measure of productivity omits an important input

18. Sources of Economic Growth Recall, that we assumed three basic inputs to production Recall, that we assumed three basic inputs to production

19. Sources of Economic Growth Recall, that we assumed three basic inputs to production Recall, that we assumed three basic inputs to production Capital (K) Capital (K) Labor (L) Labor (L) Technology (A) Technology (A)

20. Sources of Economic Growth Recall, that we assumed three basic inputs to production Recall, that we assumed three basic inputs to production Capital (K) Capital (K) Labor (L) Labor (L) Technology (A) Technology (A) Growth accounting attempts to separate the growth effects of each input Growth accounting attempts to separate the growth effects of each input

21. Growth Accounting Step 1: Estimate capital/labor share of income K = 30% L = 70%

22. Growth Accounting Step 1: Estimate capital/labor share of income K = 30% L = 70% Step 2: Estimate capital, labor, and output growth %Y = 5 %K = 3 %L = 1

23. Growth Accounting Step 1: Estimate capital/labor share of income K = 30% L = 70% Step 2: Estimate capital, labor, and output growth %Y = 5 %K = 3 %L = 1 Productivity growth will be the residual output growth after correcting for inputs

24. Growth Accounting Step 1: Estimate capital/labor share of income K = 30% L = 70% Step 2: Estimate capital, labor, and output growth %Y = 5% %K = 3% %L = 1% Productivity growth will be the residual output growth after correcting for inputs %A = %Y – (.3)*(%K) – (.7)*(%L)

25. Growth Accounting Step 1: Estimate capital/labor share of income K = 30% L = 70% Step 2: Estimate capital, labor, and output growth %Y = 5 %K = 3 %L = 1 Productivity growth will be the residual output growth after correcting for inputs %A = %Y – (.3)*(%K) – (.7)*(%L) %A = 5 – (.3)*(3) + (.7)*(1) = 3.4%

26. Sources of US Growth 1929 - 1948 1948 - 1973 1973-19821982-1997 Output2.543.701.553.45 Capital.11.77.69.98 Labor1.421.401.131.71 Total Input 1.532.171.822.69 Productivity1.011.53-.27.76

27. Productivity Growth in Thailand Labor productivity growth in Thailand averaged around 15% in the 90’s, but how much of this was technological? Labor productivity growth in Thailand averaged around 15% in the 90’s, but how much of this was technological? %Y = 8 %Y = 8 %L = 3 %L = 3 %K = 40 %K = 40

28. Productivity Growth in Thailand Labor productivity growth in Thailand averaged around 15% in the 90’s, but how much of this was technological? Labor productivity growth in Thailand averaged around 15% in the 90’s, but how much of this was technological? %Y = 8 %Y = 8 %L = 3 %L = 3 %K = 40 %K = 40 %A = 8 – (.7)(3) – (.3)(40) = -6

29. The Bad News The growth in Thailand was attracting lots of foreign investment and was fueling an investment boom. The growth in Thailand was attracting lots of foreign investment and was fueling an investment boom. This boom was largely debt financed This boom was largely debt financed However, without technological improvement, this growth is not sustainable. However, without technological improvement, this growth is not sustainable.

30. Bank Lending (% of GDP) Country19931994199519961997 Korea5454565761 Indonesia4851535569 Malaysia74748493106 Philippines2629374856 Singapore84849095100 Thailand809197101116 Taiwan137146149146146

31. Finances of Korean Chaebol (in 100 Million Won) ChaebolDebtDebt/EquityRatioSales Jinro398598.714.8 Sammi25.9324553 Halla63.22067.652.9 New Core 25.9122418.3 Bongil18.3920.58.7 Hanhwa97.2778.296.9

32. Asian Financing While these countries did have high domestic savings rates, much of the financing came from overseas While these countries did have high domestic savings rates, much of the financing came from overseas

33. Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Country19931994199519961997 Korea.30-1.02-1.86-4.75-1.85 Indonesia-1.33-1.58-3.18-3.37-2.24 Malaysia-4.66-6.24-8.43-4.89-4.85 Philippines-5.55-4.60-2.67-4.77-5.23 Singapore7.5716.1216.8115.6515.37 Thailand-5.08-5.60-8.06-8.10-1.90 Taiwan3.162.702.104.052.72

34. Foreign Debt (% of GDP) Country1993199419951996 Korea25255150 Indonesia20182124 Malaysia26212127 Philippines66625349 Singapore910912 Thailand34333350 Taiwan10101010

35. Asian Financing While these countries did have high domestic savings rates, much of the financing came from overseas While these countries did have high domestic savings rates, much of the financing came from overseas Further, a large fraction of this debt (20-70%) was short term. Further, a large fraction of this debt (20-70%) was short term.

36. Asian Financing: Moral Hazard A further complication was that the Asian governments implicitly backed all private sector loans. This exacerbates the natural moral hazard problem already present in financial markets A further complication was that the Asian governments implicitly backed all private sector loans. This exacerbates the natural moral hazard problem already present in financial markets

37. The Beginning of the End By the mid nineties, the profitability of Asian companies began to fall By the mid nineties, the profitability of Asian companies began to fall

38. Return on Assets by Korean Chaebol Chaebol 1992 - 1996 1996 Hanbo3%1.7% Sammi2.9%3.2% Jinro2.7%1.9% Kia18.9%8.7% Dainong6.8%5.5%

39. The Beginning of the End By the mid nineties, the profitability of Asian companies began to fall By the mid nineties, the profitability of Asian companies began to fall As profits fell, loan defaults increased As profits fell, loan defaults increased

40. Non-Performing Loans (% of Total Loans) Country1996 Korea8 Indonesia13 Malaysia10 Philippines14 Singapore4 Thailand13 Taiwan3

41. To Make Matters Worse Most countries were pegged to the dollar. As domestic inflation rates rose, they experienced a real appreciation against the US. Most countries were pegged to the dollar. As domestic inflation rates rose, they experienced a real appreciation against the US.

42. To Make Matters Worse Most countries were pegged to the dollar. As domestic inflation rates rose, they experienced a real appreciation against the US. Most countries were pegged to the dollar. As domestic inflation rates rose, they experienced a real appreciation against the US. As the dollar appreciated against the Yen, so did the Baht, Ringgit, etc. As the dollar appreciated against the Yen, so did the Baht, Ringgit, etc.

43. To Make Matters Worse Most countries were pegged to the dollar. As domestic inflation rates rose, they experienced a real appreciation against the US. Most countries were pegged to the dollar. As domestic inflation rates rose, they experienced a real appreciation against the US. As the dollar appreciated against the Yen, so did the Baht, Ringgit, etc. As the dollar appreciated against the Yen, so did the Baht, Ringgit, etc. Japan slid into a recession in the early nineties. Japan slid into a recession in the early nineties.

44. Liquidity Problems With exports falling, there was insufficient cash to refinance short term borrowing With exports falling, there was insufficient cash to refinance short term borrowing Further, many of these loans were dollar denominated, which put additional strain on dollar reserves (to maintain the peg) Further, many of these loans were dollar denominated, which put additional strain on dollar reserves (to maintain the peg)

45. Why not float?

46. With many loans denominated in dollars, a currency depreciation raises the value of the loan in domestic currency. With many loans denominated in dollars, a currency depreciation raises the value of the loan in domestic currency. Domestic interest rates would have to be raised to attract capital (interest rates would need to compensate for the currency depreciation) Domestic interest rates would have to be raised to attract capital (interest rates would need to compensate for the currency depreciation)

47. Is maintaining the peg better?

48. Not really…….by maintaining the peg to the dollar, the central bank must continue to buy up domestic currency which contracts the domestic money supply. Not really…….by maintaining the peg to the dollar, the central bank must continue to buy up domestic currency which contracts the domestic money supply.

49. Enter the IMF As the Asian debts piled up, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) intervened. The offered emergency loans, but with strings attached. As the Asian debts piled up, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) intervened. The offered emergency loans, but with strings attached.

50. Enter the IMF As the Asian debts piled up, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) intervened. The offered emergency loans, but with strings attached. As the Asian debts piled up, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) intervened. The offered emergency loans, but with strings attached.

51. Enter the IMF While the IMF did not insist that the countries maintain their pegs at all cost, they required three policies to “restore confidence” While the IMF did not insist that the countries maintain their pegs at all cost, they required three policies to “restore confidence” Raise interest rates Raise interest rates Balance Government Budgets Balance Government Budgets Conduct Fundamental Reform Conduct Fundamental Reform

52. Did the IMF make things better, or worse? Those countries that were able to meet the requirements slipped further into recessions Those countries that were able to meet the requirements slipped further into recessions Those countries that couldn’t meet the requirements suffered further “investor confidence” Those countries that couldn’t meet the requirements suffered further “investor confidence”

53. Malaysia opts out Malaysia, rather than accepting the IMF terms, chose to follow a different strategy Malaysia, rather than accepting the IMF terms, chose to follow a different strategy Malaysia imposed capital controls which restricted capital flows out of the country. Malaysia imposed capital controls which restricted capital flows out of the country. This allowed Malaysia the freedom to follow more expansionary policies without worrying about losing foreign capital. This allowed Malaysia the freedom to follow more expansionary policies without worrying about losing foreign capital. This strategy seemed to work in that Malaysia recovered faster than other countries. This strategy seemed to work in that Malaysia recovered faster than other countries.

54. What’s the moral of the story In bad times, policies required to maintain external balance (currency value) turn out to be policies that would never have been considered in countries with a peg. In bad times, policies required to maintain external balance (currency value) turn out to be policies that would never have been considered in countries with a peg. Typically, the better solution is: Typically, the better solution is: Devalue, but devalue “enough” Devalue, but devalue “enough” Drop the peg and concentrate on economic recovery. Drop the peg and concentrate on economic recovery.