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The Fast-Approaching Frontier: Employment Outcomes of College Graduates How Do We Make Sense of it All? Patrick J. Kelly National Center for Higher Education.

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Presentation on theme: "The Fast-Approaching Frontier: Employment Outcomes of College Graduates How Do We Make Sense of it All? Patrick J. Kelly National Center for Higher Education."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Fast-Approaching Frontier: Employment Outcomes of College Graduates How Do We Make Sense of it All? Patrick J. Kelly National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

2 Federal Gainful Employment Effective utilization of federal SLDS grants College attainment/completion goals – state retention of graduates and economic returns Increased focus on “credentials of value” – the attainment of credentials of less than two-years in length (primarily) that yield living/competitive wages Meeting employment demand in key areas – e.g. health, education, STEM, trades Increasing need for employment outcomes data to make the case for continued investment (state and federal policymaking environments) Environmental Pressures

3 The Data are Simple Employed – record in the database (excludes self employed, military, and employed out-of-state) Earnings Industry of Employment Region of Employment Employment/Wage Records Data Available Quarterly Completions Level of Award (Certificate, Associates, Bachelor’s Masters, Doctorate, Professional) CIP Code of Award – Field of Study Continued Enrollment Institution Records Data Available by Term Link SSN

4 What percentage of the graduates are employed in-state – by level and type of award? Are the graduates employed in the region in which they graduate? What are their quarterly earnings? What industries are the employed in? (only relevant in a few fields) What percentage continue to enroll/persist in postsecondary education? Major Questions Answered

5 Median Annual Wages by General Field of Study and Age (United States) (Includes Only Bachelor’s Degree Holders, Not Residents Who Earned Graduate/ Professional Degrees) Employment Outcomes Metrics/ UI Data Match Age Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Sample) STEM Health Business and Communications Psychology and Social Sciences Liberal Arts Education

6 State brain drain. Is the state retaining the graduates it produces? How is it changing over time? (the impact on the degree and attainment goals of the state). State-level supply and demand. What is the employment status of graduates in key areas of demand for the state? E.g. health and STEM fields, certain trades. Don’t fall into the trap of overly detailed program-to-occupation supply and demand studies. Regional supply and demand. Are institutions producing graduates that meet local employer needs? What are the employment status and wages of the graduates they produce? Information for students and families. What programs provide the highest wages in the short-run? What programs are more likely to require continued education upon completion? Most Effective Uses of the Data

7 Small numbers of graduates for many programs It is very difficult to calculate the “value added” by institution – i.e. the likely employment and wages of students had they not completed their college credentials The state economy treats graduates from some institutions better than graduates from others (with the same credentials) – the “prestige” factor Institutions serving large numbers of place-bound students are victims of their local economy (e.g. a part of the state that has low wages relative to other parts of the state) The difficult balance between directing students into programs with competitive wages and providing student choice Institutional Accountability (Difficult at Best)

8 Voluntary participation of 20 institutions – represented by nearly all sectors Pilot a few employment outcomes metrics using the match between graduate student unit records and the state unemployment insurance (UI) databases Data Captured: Employment, continued enrollment, and wages one and five years after graduation (by level and field of study) Documentation of the results, barriers, what the data tell us, what they don’t, and the most responsible/effective uses of the data in policy and practice Gates Foundation Voluntary Metrics Project

9 Context

10 Why Indiana?

11 Career and training opportunities associated with: Levels of education that are greater than high school and less than a bachelor’s degree. Typically requiring undergraduate postsecondary certificates, certifications, associates degrees. Focus of IndianaSkills.com

12 Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey

13 Average Annual Net Migration of 22 to 64 Year Olds by Education Level ( ) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

14 Percent of 18 to 64 Year Olds with HS Diploma or Less Living in Families not Earning Living Wage (2010) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

15 Change in Percent of 18 to 64 Year Olds with HS Diploma or Less Living in Families not Earning Living Wage – Since 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

16 SupplyDemand Information and Analysis Imposed – A “Study” Employers – “I’ve been telling you this for years, we can’t find people with the skills we need” Education/Training Providers – “This is great information but you’re asking us to cut programs that generate revenue, restructure/change faculty resources, add programs that cost more to provide, and change student choice?” Policymakers – “Interesting report but the college in my district doesn’t like it” Potential Students – “I have no clue the report even exists, and wouldn’t read it if I did” Information Made Accessible – Creating an Environment for Change Information StudentsEmployers ProvidersPolicymakers Access to Data and Information that Inform Users and Generates the Public Will for Change

17 Job seekers find career opportunities and short term training programs that best match their skills and interests, are in high demand, with competitive wages. Employers learn a great deal more about the occupations they are hiring for, the skills and credentials they should be requiring, and the wages being paid to similar employees around the state. Students become better informed about short-term training programs that lead to gainful employment in the state and regions in which they live. Website Designed to Help:

18 General information about occupations – U.S. Department of Labor, MyNextMove.org, MySkillsMyFuture.org, Bureau of Labor Statistics, O’net Real-time data on occupation demand – Burning Glass Status of recent college graduates – Indiana’s W orkforce Intelligence System (IWIS). Data Sources

19 Most Job Postings for Sub-Baccalaureate Occupations (Source: Burning Glass)

20 Most Requested/Required Certifications (Source: Burning Glass)

21 Status of Recent College Graduates (Source: Indiana’s Workforce Intelligence System) Example – Registered Nurses

22 Evansville Indianapolis Fort Wayne South BendGary Bloomington Lafayette Richmond Terre Haute New Albany Columbus Data and Information Available by Region

23 Additional Features “Top 10 Lists” – e.g. Occupations with greatest demand, highest earnings, highest percentage of employability, most requested certifications by Indiana employers, most requested specialized skills by Indiana employers, etc. Job Description Creator – an easy-to-use tool that enables employers to generate job descriptions for occupations they are hiring for – utilizing the data and information on the website (e.g. typical level of education required, certifications associated with the occupation, wages earned by Indiana employees, etc.)

24 Add Screenshots of IndianaSkills.com


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