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National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Chattahooche-Flint River Basin 5 June 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Chattahooche-Flint River Basin 5 June 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Chattahooche-Flint River Basin 5 June 2012

2 Outline Welcome – Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought status and how we got here – David Zierden, FSU, Florida Climate Center Streamflows and groundwater – Chris Smith, USGS Apalachicola Salinity – Jenna Wanat, ANERR Reservoir status and outlook – Bailey Crane, USACE Seasonal outlooks – David Zierden Streamflow forecasts – Todd Hammil, SE River Forecast Center Summary and Discussion

3 New Climate and Weather Page

4 Current drought status from Drought Monitor

5 7-day Rainfall Totals

6 Cumulative Rainfall Deficits Past 30 days Past 180 days

7 Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: Previous Brief:

8 Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: Previous brief:

9 Lake Lanier Inflows Chestatee near Dahlonega ( ) Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( )

10 Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

11 Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

12 Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

13 Dry Bar Cat Point Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve East Bay

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18 5-Day Precipitation Forecast

19 3-Month Outlook Precipitation Temperature

20 U.S. Drought Outlook

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22 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Colorado State University (Klotzbach and Gray): 10 Named Storms (12 is normal) 4 Hurricanes (6.5 is normal) 2 Major Hurricanes (2 is normal) NOAA 70% chance of 9-15 named storms 4-8 Hurricanes 1-3 Major Hurricanes Alberto

23 Formation Regions and Landfalls

24 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany

25 Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany

26 Summary Although Tropical Storm Beryl brought heavy rains to NE Florida and SE Georgia, very little fell in the ACF River Basin so drought continues throughout most of the basin, with significant areas classified as extreme or exceptional Streamflows in the upper basin are in the range of 10 to 24% of historical observations, whereas streamflow levels in the lower basin are below any previous observations Groundwater in Miller County, GA remains in the range of the lowest 10% of historic observations Salinity levels in Apalachicola Bay are near 15 ppt at East Bay Bottom, 25 ppt at Cat Point, and 30 ppt at Dry Bar

27 Summary The 5-day outlook for rainfall is fair, with about 2 inches in the southern part of the basin but less than 1 inch in the northern part of the basin. Current ENSO conditions are neutral, but their remains about a 50% chance that El Niño will develop in the fall Both Colorado State U and NOAA forecast similar numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes for this summer, but the forecast does not predict where or whether these storms will make landfall The streamflow forecast for the next 1 and 3 months continues to show a high probability that streamflows will remain below normal

28 References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Chris Smith, USGS Jenna Wanat, ANERR Bailey Crane, US ACE Todd Hammil, SERFC Moderator Keith Ingram, UF/SECC Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring Groundwater monitoring

29 Thank you! Next briefing – 14 June 2012, 1:00 pm EST Slides from this briefing will be posted at New Climate and Weather Page Please send comments and suggestions to:


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