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P-TRANE Understanding Service Changes of Transit Agencies for Modelling the Bus Transit Network Evolution Amr M. Mohammed 1 Amer Shalaby 2 Eric J Miller.

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Presentation on theme: "P-TRANE Understanding Service Changes of Transit Agencies for Modelling the Bus Transit Network Evolution Amr M. Mohammed 1 Amer Shalaby 2 Eric J Miller."— Presentation transcript:

1 P-TRANE Understanding Service Changes of Transit Agencies for Modelling the Bus Transit Network Evolution Amr M. Mohammed 1 Amer Shalaby 2 Eric J Miller 3 1: Morrison Hershfield Ltd. 2,3: Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto Paper presented at the 2011 GIS in Public Transportation Conference URISA – The Association of GIS Professionals September 15 th 2011

2 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE Overview Introduction Introduction Bus Network Evolution Model Bus Network Evolution Model Phase I: Mississauga Transit Phase I: Mississauga Transit Types of Changes Types of Changes Phase II: P-TRANE Phase II: P-TRANE Results Results Conclusions and Recommendations Conclusions and Recommendations Current Developments Current Developments (City of Ottawa: Hospital Link, LRT)

3 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE Introduction Bus operators/agencies Constantly Adjust networks (changes) Bus operators/agencies Constantly Adjust networks (changes) Behaviour Behaviour Response to: Dynamic of Ridership Changes & Budget Response to: Dynamic of Ridership Changes & Budget

4 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE Introduction Model captures changes over time: Model captures changes over time: Predict network shape & functionality Predict network shape & functionality Future Time steps Future Time steps Aid for developers, Transit & urban planners Aid for developers, Transit & urban planners Component in urban-transportation demand simulation frameworks (e.g. ILUTE) Component in urban-transportation demand simulation frameworks (e.g. ILUTE)

5 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE Introduction P-TRANE “Changes triggered by socioeconomic & Urban factors (Land-Use) & dictated/Guided by service standards practices” Two-phase Empirical Study (Multiple regression & simultaneous equations) – USING ArcGIS Service Standards (P-TRANE) - USING ArcGIS

6 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE Introduction Fits into ILUTE? Transportation Planning Models Transportation Planning Models Bring transportation-related components of urban systems into integrated modelling framework Bring transportation-related components of urban systems into integrated modelling framework Urban Form Transportation Model 2-way interactions Integration

7 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE Introduction: ILUTE Integrated Land-Use, Transportation, Environment (Salvini and Miller, 2005) Travel Demand Household/Person decisions Activity of Objects (Persons/hh/firms/job market) Travel Times Energy UseEmissions Exogenous

8 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE Bus Evolution Model Phase I: Empirical analysis Supply historical trends Supply historical trends Macroscopic Macroscopic Mutual effect between Demand & Supply Mutual effect between Demand & Supply ‘Demand and supply are recursive & simultaneous’ (e.g. Taylor & Miller 2003, Peng 1997) ‘Demand and supply are recursive & simultaneous’ (e.g. Taylor & Miller 2003, Peng 1997) Phase II: P-TRANE GIS of bus network growth GIS of bus network growth Microscopic (bus line /period/branch detail) Microscopic (bus line /period/branch detail) Service Standards Service Standards

9 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE PHASE I Analysing historical trends of transit supply Analysing historical trends of transit supply Purpose: Understand causes and triggers of growth Purpose: Understand causes and triggers of growth Statistical and econometric models Statistical and econometric models Mississauga Transit Phase I : Mississauga Transit Demand? Population? Income? Demographics?

10 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE Mississauga Transit Phase I: Mississauga Transit Mississauga Downtown Toronto – Business Centre City of Mississauga Subway Stations (Western Terminus) Kipling/Islington Busy Explosive Growth Employment Centre Connectivity

11 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller PREMOTRANE Mississauga Transit Phase I: Mississauga Transit Demographic and socioeconomic variables Demographic and socioeconomic variables ArcGIS (1/4 mile buffer zone) (Local & City wide) ArcGIS (1/4 mile buffer zone) (Local & City wide) Multiple time steps ( ) (Census Tract + TTS zones data) Multiple time steps ( ) (Census Tract + TTS zones data) Multiple Regression & simultaneous equations Multiple Regression & simultaneous equations Transit supply → bus frequencies (Dependant variable) Transit supply → bus frequencies (Dependant variable)

12 Phase I: Results Bus Frequency = (Demand {ridership}) (Transfers) (Dummy variable representing the connection to TTC subway) (Population Density) – (No of Children) * (City- wide No of Children) Cross-sectional models using Multiple Regression

13 Phase I: Results Simultaneous Regression Equations Bus Frequency = (Demand) (Labour Force) (No of Transfers) (Dummy variable representing the connection to TTC subway) Demand = (Density) (Employment) (Change in City-wide Density) – (Number of Children) (Bus Frequency {last period})

14 Phase I: Results Simultaneous Regression Equations: Model Testing 2001 data(Observed vs. Estimated) 2001 data(Observed vs. Estimated) 2-tailed matched pairs, difference not significantly different from zero 2-tailed matched pairs, difference not significantly different from zero Previous model show strong predictive power Previous model show strong predictive power

15 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE Transit Evolution Model Phase II “Prediction Model of Transit Network Evolution” “Prediction Model of Transit Network Evolution” Previously PREMOTRANE P-TRANE

16 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE P-TRANE 1- Capital-intensive changes Political – Large Scale (subway, LRT) – Effects 2 Political – Large Scale (subway, LRT) – Effects 2 Exogenous Exogenous Phase II: Types of Changes Types of Bus Network Changes 2- Periodic Service changes Regular, (medium to small) Regular, (medium to small) Reaction to Changing demands Reaction to Changing demands Budget is exogenous Budget is exogenous Extra subsidy? = No new buses into P-TRANE Extra subsidy? = No new buses into P-TRANE Modeled in P-TRANE New bus route Route removal Frequency change Re-routing & Extending

17 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller PREMOTRANE P-TRANE 2- Medium to Small Periodic Service changes Phase II: Types of Changes

18 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE Service Standards: Service Standards: Guidelines Guidelines Service quality & financial performance Service quality & financial performance Proposals for new service Proposals for new service Rules into P-TRANE Rules into P-TRANE Expert Systems (KB: Service StandardsExpert Systems (KB: Service Standards Rules + Priority Rules) Rules + Priority Rules) Frequency, Financial Performance P-TRANE Phase II: TTC Service Standards

19 Phase II: P-TRANE, Minor changes: Bus Crowding Rule P-TRANE IF: Ridership during the busiest hour period is greater than loading standard (peak or off peak) THEN: this route is flagged and will have service increase in the next time step Financial Performance rule Financial Performance = Ridership / Operating cost IF: Financial Performance < 0.23 THEN: List route as financially poor, Order the list, Flag for reduction and use if needed for other service improvements This route is flagged and could be reduced (decrease frequency) or eliminated at the next time step

20 PREMOTRANE Implementation: Minor Changes Phase II: PREMOTRANE

21 P-TRANE Implementation: Minor Changes Phase II: P-TRANE Algorithm (1): Frequency increase and decrease in P-TRANE for minor changes. Calculating frequencies from headways: F = 60 / H 1.Frequencies are increased or decreased by one bus/hour in each service iteration F N = F + 1 (Service increase: overcrowding) F N = F – 1 (Service reduction: poor financial performance) 1.Unit change in frequency is equivalent to an increase in number of buses by one (approximation). NB N = NB + 1 (Service increase: overcrowding) NB N = NB – 1 (Service reduction: poor financial performance) 1.Run crowding check for lines that experienced frequency increase to check if demand was satisfied, if not, then go to step (2) (if more than one bus is required for any line at a time step). Iterate until demand is satisfied. For each line requiring frequency reduction: IF NB = 1 (Only one bus operating, assumed service frequency). Then Flag this line for removal for the next time period, if the area is only covered by this line, it is assumed to be re-built using Module 2 of P-TRANE. For each line requiring frequency increase: NB N = NB + n H N = 60 / F N IF H N < 1.5 minutes (Maximum frequency for buses). Then Do nothing and stop (No service increase in this process, keep service frequency and do not update.) Where: F : Bus frequency (bus/hour) H : Bus headway (in minutes) H N : New (updated) bus headway (in minutes) F N : New (updated) bus frequency (bus/hour) NB : Number of buses per line per time period NB N : New (updated) number of buses per line per time period n : Number of successful iterations (number of added buses)

22 Phase II: P-TRANE,GIS Medium Changes Rules P-TRANE Serve people beyond 300 m of current service Serve people beyond 300 m of current service Maximise interconnection with rapid transit stations Maximise interconnection with rapid transit stations Result an overall benefit for customers. Result an overall benefit for customers. Proposal presented by customers or councillors in the area Proposal presented by customers or councillors in the area Service Gaps + Land-use (input) + Developments (more likelihood) Service Gaps + Land-use (input) + Developments (more likelihood) P-TRANE,GIS : build new routes P-TRANE,GIS : build new routes

23 PREMOTRANE Phase II: P-TRANE,GIS Implementation: Route Changes

24 P-TRANE Phase II: P-TRANE,GIS Implementation: Route Changes

25 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller PREMOTRANE Modelling Procedure (Proposals) PREMOTRANE new line/extension/adjustment in routing

26 Modelling Procedure (Proposals) P-TRANE Line Builder in P-TRANE Apply/add to updated network

27 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE Transit Evolution Model P-TRANE & ILUTE exchange demand, land-use and supply data for future time steps and are simulated together. P-TRANE Demand (Ridership) Land-use P-TRANE ILUTE Socio-Economic Data Transit Network (Supply)

28 P-TRANE Phase II: P-TRANE Relationship with ILUTE

29 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller PREMOTRANE Results (Minor Changes) P-TRANE Frequencies and Financial performance Test 2005 network (TTC) Test 2005 network (TTC) Output: A number of lists of changes in frequency & financially poor lines for Output: A number of lists of changes in frequency & financially poor lines for % of actual # changes modelled by P- TRANE actually changed 97% of actual # changes modelled by P- TRANE actually changed

30 Results P-TRANE Route Changes Sheppard Subway stations TTC made 11 changes - 3 new lines TTC made 11 changes - 3 new lines Don Mills to Scarborough town Centre Don Mills to Scarborough town Centre Finch East to Don Mills Finch East to Don Mills Victoria Park via consumers road (To Don Mills station) Victoria Park via consumers road (To Don Mills station) P-TRANE output: P-TRANE output: Don Mills to Ellsemere station (one station south of actual) Don Mills to Ellsemere station (one station south of actual) Bayview to Finch (but through local streets) Bayview to Finch (but through local streets) Bessarion to Finch (through local streets) Bessarion to Finch (through local streets) Spatial comparison Spatial comparison Functionality / Spatially equivalent Functionality / Spatially equivalent

31 Actual → ← P-TRANE Results P-TRANE Route Changes Sheppard Subway stations – 2002

32 Conclusions P-TRANE P-TRANE For the first time, Transit network evolution For the first time, Transit network evolution Two phase project (empirical & DSS) Two phase project (empirical & DSS) P-TRANE – a (GIS) framework P-TRANE – a (GIS) framework Simulates changes spatially and temporally Simulates changes spatially and temporally Predictive model, describes service standards Predictive model, describes service standards Component in ILUTE, Component in ILUTE, GIS, User-friendly, Promising Results GIS, User-friendly, Promising Results

33 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE Conclusions P-TRANE P-TRANE DSS For Transit Agencies (e.g. TTC, OCTranspo) DSS For Transit Agencies (e.g. TTC, OCTranspo) Test future policies, alternatives, standards Test future policies, alternatives, standards Simulates Periodic Changes of Service/Feeder Bus Routes Prior to (Capital Intensive) Projects Simulates Periodic Changes of Service/Feeder Bus Routes Prior to (Capital Intensive) Projects E.g., New LRT BRT, Subway Stations, E.g., New LRT BRT, Subway Stations,

34 Mohammed, Shalaby and Miller P-TRANE Current Developments P-TRANE Ottawa Transit: (LRT & Hospital Link BRT) Effects on feeder bus network; Ottawa Transit: (LRT & Hospital Link BRT) Effects on feeder bus network; Testing, validating and updating; Testing, validating and updating; Next Steps Effects of Labour Unions Effects of Labour Unions Budget Model Budget Model

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