Presentation on theme: "Market Recap Highlights A1 MR- 12/02/2011 Heightened volatility is once again the theme. Stocks closed sharply higher Wednesday as investors cheered the."— Presentation transcript:
Market Recap Highlights A1 MR- 12/02/2011 Heightened volatility is once again the theme. Stocks closed sharply higher Wednesday as investors cheered the move by central banks to boost global liquidity. Also contributing to the upside was a slew of data released from the U.S., which alleviated fears of a possible "double dip." Including the big 490 point move higher for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we had, for November, four 200+ point UP days to go along with four 200+ point DOWN days. The previous quarter saw 19 trading days in which the market moved 200 points or more compared with just one such day during the second quarter. The high level of excess volatility could signal that the economy’s recent slow growth has reached an inflection point, but it is not clear whether that change is to the upside or downside. Despite the market being relatively flat for the year, investors who were nimble and tactical with their trading found the market volatility highly profitable. Source: Reuters Dow Jones Industrial Average 200+ Point Up/Down Days Investment Quilt of Returns Source: Bloomberg, HFRI, ThompsonOne.com MR – 01/20/2012 The Investment Quilt of Returns ranks key market indices, representing different asset classes, in order of calendar year performance. Asset classes can rotate in and out of relative favor depending on factors such as market sentiment and economic dynamics. While U.S. bonds were the best performing asset class this past year, they were an under- performing asset for 7 years during the past decade. Likewise, emerging market equity was the top-performing category for the majority of the past decade but was the least favorable category in 2011. Because it is difficult to ‘time the market’ and predict which asset class will outperform in a given year, investors should consider investing in a balanced and well- diversified portfolio instead of investing too heavily in any single asset class.
Market Recap Highlights A2 Source: Gallup MR-11/11/2011 Much of the current focus of the direction of the economy centers on the upcoming election. President Obama faces one of the most challenging political environments, as he prepares to try to win a second term next November. A state- by-state examination of the electoral map suggests that the president faces a far more challenging election than in 2008. President Obama was swept into office with 365 electoral votes (270 needed to win the election), having won several traditionally-Republican states. He is currently falling behind in several of the battleground states that he won in the last election. Based on current polling data, the upcoming election will be decided by 12 swing states, with Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio being the most highly- contested. Electoral Map MR – 01/06/2012 At the start of each year, market strategists typically attempt to forecast how the market will perform in the coming year. Most Wall Street strategists are optimistic that the stock market will increase in 2012 but are not forecasting a dramatic move higher. The current consensus estimate among strategists is for the S&P 500 index to end 2012 at around 1334, which would be 6.1% higher than the 2011 closing value of 1257. Given the current 2% yield for the S&P 500, the total return for the market would be ~ 8%. Many worry that there seem to be few solutions to the European sovereign-debt crisis and that corporate earnings growth in the U.S. may begin to slow. It is interesting to note that the average forecast for 2011 was 1372, which would have been an 8.3% gain. The market fell well short of that estimate. S&P 500 Analyst Forecasts Source: Birinyi Associates/WSJ
Thematic Investments Harbour Capital Advisors LLC A7 Sector Overweights: Industrials, Technology and Materials are the more economically sensitive areas of the market and benefit from overseas demand. We expect to maintain this view for the first half of the year but will consider a more defensive view later in the year which is more reflective of the business cycle. Income-producing Securities provide attractive yields and hedge against near-term equity market volatility. Initiate positions in Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), Floating Rate Bank Notes, High Yield Bonds, and Preferred Stocks. Rise of Cloud Computing: Life in the clouds means applications are based in remote internet data centers – not on your PC or local server. Technology spending will be devoted to network applications, IT security, and systems management. With strong balance sheets and hoards of cash, US Capital Expenditure Acceleration will be in stark contrast to both the consumer and government sectors. Corporate balance sheets are in better shape than they’ve been in over half a century. Focus on the stock of companies increasing dividends and buying back their stock. Several factors suggest a Domestic Manufacturing Renaissance, as overseas manufacturing jobs may be returning to the U.S. as wages in many emerging economies have been increasing and companies are more willing to reconsider the U.S. in order to gain greater reliability and reduce the risks associated with the loss of intellectual property. Dividend-paying Stocks are attractive to those seeking income but also as a means to offset market volatility. Companies able to consistently increase dividend payouts signal stability and an ability to weather an economic soft patch. Be Nimble, with a Safety Net. The need to be active is greater than ever in a volatile market. Consider resorting to regular, dynamic portfolio rebalancing to adjust to economic and market developments.
Contrarian Investments Harbour Capital Advisors LLC A8 Execution of Short-interest Strategies focused on timely investment when perception is that the market is “over-bought.” The market increases 2/3 of the time. This means that there are times when the market is under pressure. Short-interest prospers in such times and allows for greater conviction with the “long” portion of the portfolio. Real over nominal assets: The potential for higher inflation favors real assets and those that are inflation-protected. Commodities are a winner. Precious metals such as Gold and Silver also serve as safe havens in times of market turbulence. Second-derivative investments (miners) should also benefit from elevated metal prices. Distressed and Deep-value investments have led us to look at opportunities in areas such as Precious Metals and Financial Services companies. These would represent relatively short-term, tactical investments focused on the tendency of the market to over-discount headline news. While Japan’s economy continues its recovery process and expects limited growth of domestic demand, it has an enormous potential of benefiting from the increasing Asian consumption market, given that Asia now accounts for more than 50% of Japan’s total exports Hedge against equity Market Volatility by investing in the VIX. In times of market distress and sell-off, markets tend to converge, increasing trading volume. Short the Euro versus the U.S. Dollar: With the unsettled nature of European Sovereign credit, we believe investment in European exporters is appealing, but we would also look to hedge Euro Dollar exposure. The prices of Natural Gas Companies have plummeted as the commodity has fallen to historical lows. Many believe that natural gas is now significantly undervalued and presents room for sizable upsize.