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Kpmg 2007 National Consumer Congress Mapping the future — Australia’s consumer demographics Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift and The Big Picture Partner.

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Presentation on theme: "Kpmg 2007 National Consumer Congress Mapping the future — Australia’s consumer demographics Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift and The Big Picture Partner."— Presentation transcript:

1 kpmg 2007 National Consumer Congress Mapping the future — Australia’s consumer demographics Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift and The Big Picture Partner KPMG Australia 14 March 2007

2 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg

3 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg

4 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg

5 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg

6 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg

7 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg Push from the bush Suburban culture emerged during the 20 th Century Provincial coastal culture now ascendant Underpinned by lifestyle-seeking baby boomers Edna Everage; Neighbours 1985; Kath & Kim Inner city 5% Suburbia 59% Rural 17% Coastal 19% 1901 Inner city 25% Suburbia 15% Rural 52% Coastal 8%

8 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg 1.Gold Coast 13,563 2.Wanneroo 7,941 3.Melton 6,814 4.Wyndham 6,660 5.Casey 6,429 6.Blacktown 4,955 7.Brisbane SW 4,839 8.Rockingham 4,616 9.Ipswich 4, Cairns 4,099 Population and business hotspots Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Telecommuting lifestyle towns are evolving at Palm Beach (NSW), Mt Tambourine (Qld), Daylesford (Vic), Birdwood (SA), Falmouth (Tas) and Cundinup (WA) … and this was in 2001 prior to Broadband and 3G technology

9 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg Why population shifts are important to business 10,000 extra residents support job growth, eg: 3,700 new suburban households, or 6,700 new inner-city households $82 million in new retail spending* $28 million in new supermarket spending* ½ a Kmart One cinema screen 7,500 cubic metres of pre mix concrete Population loss reverses these markets *includes GST

10 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg Our shifting heartland is changing the consumer focus Areas of population loss and growth between 1976 and 2006 Losers Winners Narooma Port Stephens Port Macquarie Coffs Harbour Gold Coast Caloundra Noosa Hervey Bay Yeppoon Townsville Port Douglas Macedon Ranges Denmark East Pilbara Ngaanyatjarraku Leonora Broome Palmerston Busselton Geraldton Augusta- Margaret River Victor Harbor Sorell Proserpine

11 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg Coastal towns require infrastructure and services The driving force for many Australians is the pursuit of lifestyle either on the beach or up in the hills Bunbury Hervey Bay Mandurah Busselton Cairns Mackay Townsville Gold Coast-Tweed Darwin Albany Sunshine Coast Mildura Bundaberg Gladstone Bendigo Perth Mount Barker Ballarat Shepparton Livingstone (Yeppoon) Toowoomba Warrnambool Coffs Harbour Brisbane Nowra-Bomaderry Bathurst Mount Isa Wagga Singleton Melbourne Tamworth Lismore Great Lakes (Forster) Geraldton Griffith Bega Valley Geelong Rockhampton Albury-Wodonga Canberra-Queanbeyan Grafton La Trobe Valley Greater Hobart Eurobodalla (Narooma) Ballina Nambucca Wingecarribee (Bowral-Moss Vale) Sydney Dubbo Adelaide Burnie-Devonport Orange Newcastle Armidale Port Macquarie Launceston Mount Gambier Taree (Greater) Lithgow Burdekin (Ayr) Kempsey Maryborough Wollongong Byron Alice Springs Kalgoorlie/Boulder Goulburn Broken Hill Whyalla Johnstone (Innisfail) -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Population change: to 2006 Innisfail Bunbury Hervey Bay Mildura Mandurah National average

12 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg Y/E January /072006/07 $b% change% change Supermarkets, grocery & convenience stores62.877%7% Take-away food retailing9.436%3% Other food retailing16.595%11% Total department stores16.643%3% Clothing retailing10.574%4% Other clothing related retailing3.853%5% Furniture & floor covering retailing7.7120%7% Domestic hardware & houseware9.5123%1% Domestic appliances & recorded music15.469%9% Newspapers, books & stationery retailing5.338%-5% Other recreational goods retailing3.033%7% Pharmaceutical & cosmetic retailing9.4105%10% Other retailing12.576%4% Hotels and licensed clubs19.572%4% Cafes & restaurants %13% Selected services2.863%6% Total retail & hospitality 21874%6% Household formation, pharmacy and lifestyle drive consumer spending Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

13 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg Gen Y Change in life expectancy over 80 years Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australia’s Health 2004 (AIHW) Gen Y is stretching the teenage years ChildAdolescenceLifestyleOldRetired Adult ChildTeenOld Adult ChildAdultOld

14 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg  Born … now aged  Often a single child of baby boomer parents  Matured to adulthood in prosperous times  Many live at home with mum & dad  Not committed in their 20s … to marriage, mortgage, children, careers  May turn out to be the “Disappointed Generation”  Different views on loyalty to friends, to workmates, to employers  Prefer ‘deals’ not contracts and ‘mentors’ not bosses  Highly educated, opportunistic and global in their thinking Characteristics of Generation Y

15 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg 50, ,000 There is a demographic logic behind the rise of Generation Y … in Australia … Boomer Gen XGen Y 2007 Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory (2007); Australian Historical Population Statistics, ABS (2004); Population Projections, Australia, 2004 to 2101 (2006) 0 50, , , , ,

16 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg … in Japan … -1,000, , ,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000, Boomer Gen XGen Y 2007 Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory, Statistics Bureau of Japan (2006)

17 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg … and in the US Source: KPMG Property Advisory, US Census Bureau (2006) Boomer Gen XGen Y 2007 Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years The “Latino Lift”

18 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg What winning businesses must do  Offer careers within careers  Focus on work-life balance  Engage with staff  Create culture of positive relationships  Transmit consistent messages/values In the early decades of the 21st Century, winning businesses will get their people strategy right

19 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg The ageing of the average Aussie bride Source: Australian Demographic Statistics; Marriages and Divorces Bridegrooms Baby boomer brides were 21 in 1971 Xer brides were 29 in 2002

20 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg Behold the Great Australian Man Drought Source: ABS (2004) Unpublished historical data (1976) Male surplus Men936,4001,493,100 Women882,200 1,502,300 Male surplus+54,200 -9,200 Male deficit

21 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg YE JuneMenWomenMale Surplus ,000136,000+1, ,000140,000-1, ,000145,000-1, ,000150,000-2, ,000157,000-3, ,000161,000-2, ,000151,000-2, ,000150,000-2,000 Women born in 1972 have got it toughest Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

22 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg The fella filter Total men aged ,381,000  Less married485,000 Total Prime Available Male Product86,000 Less than 6 per cent of men survive the Fella Filter  Less gay relationship7,000  Less men not earning $60k + pa (2005)568,000  Less defacto185,000  Less single parent (baggage)12,000

23 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg The fella filter delivers geeks and bean counters 1.Accountant3,460 2.Sales & marketing manager2,657 3.Software designer2,233 4.Applications & analyst programmer2,148 5.Fitter1,593 6.General electrician1,540 7.Systems designer1,400 8.Management consultant1,370 9.Solicitor1, General manager1,252

24 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg Young Kiwi men are not in New Zealand Source: Statistics New Zealand ,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1, ,000 2,000 3, Men190,600273,900 Women186,000304,200 Male surplus4,500-30,300 Male deficit Male surplus

25 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg Out with the Brady Bunch, in with Bridget Jones Mum, Dad & the Kids has been the leading social structure at the household level in Australia for several decades By 2021 ‘families’ and couples are eclipsed by singles – who then pull ahead in 2020s Singles Couples One-parent family Mum, Dad & the Kids Group households543 Other family111 Households (‘000s)6,4507,78911,580

26 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000, Year Population Baby boomers just won’t die! Source: ABS Censuses; ABS Series B Projections September 2003

27 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg It doesn’t get any better after … $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40, ‘Rich’ live longer Boomers at their peak until June 2006 … then the slide begins Last 20 years Next 20 years

28 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg … but discretionary spending peaks in the 50s Source: KPMG Property Advisory Group; Australian Bureau of Statistics Persons per household Income Persons $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30, Average rent/mortgage costAverage household income per person Average household disposable incomePersons per household Rent Disposable

29 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg Big shift in attitudes to retirement next decade 60, , Source: KPMG Property Advisory (2007); Australian Historical Population Statistics, ABS (2004); Population Projections, Australia, 2004 to 2101 (2006)

30 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg Generational traits Born Now aged million Idealistic; career- orientated; consumerist Promoted ‘young’ and propped Peak income earning Succession planning, advisory boards, non- executive directors Inter-generational fight Boomers Born Now aged million Realists; cynical Held back by “old fart log-jam” Peak income earning Assuming positions of high office now Must deal with baby boomers in retirement Gen X Born Now aged million (ultimately) Experiential; ethicists; uncommitted to career; relationships Extended adolescence Helicopter kids; kippers Peak income earning Technology savvy; global thinking Inherit boomer wealth Gen Y

31 © 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG. kpmg Further information & contact The Big Picture – $29.95rrp out now Bernard Salt’s column appears in The Australian every Thursday Bernard Salt’s columns appear monthly in Wish Magazine Population Growth Database 2006 now available at $495: contact Contact: Bernard Salt (03) ; The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.


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