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Thursday’s Child China’s Long March Toward Military Transformation Information Age Metrics Working Group Evidence Based Research, Inc. February 18, 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "Thursday’s Child China’s Long March Toward Military Transformation Information Age Metrics Working Group Evidence Based Research, Inc. February 18, 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 Thursday’s Child China’s Long March Toward Military Transformation Information Age Metrics Working Group Evidence Based Research, Inc. February 18, 2005

2 2 China’s leaders have long recognized the need to modernize—indeed, to transform—PLA warfighting capabilities, especially the ability to command and to control more agile, better equipped forces operating according to “local wars under modern, high tech conditions” doctrine. The “long march” to transform has not been an easy one, and has been hobbled by distractions and debate. Finally, for the past decade, the PLA seems to be getting it about right, and the way ahead looks more promising than many have expected.

3 3 This Presentation Factors motivating “transformation” of the PLA Use of wargames, simulations Institutionalizing transformation: The role of the research community as an agent for change Vignettes

4 4 Background and Motivation for Change 1970s, modern war games in the West 1980s –Falklands War –Bekka Valley Campaign –Operation Just Cause, Panama 1990s –Desert Storm: Wake up call for political leaders – Taiwan Strait crisis –Serbia/Kosovo 2000s –OEF and OIF

5 5 The Threat Debate People’s War Scenarios Mobilize the population Retreat but slow the invader Multi-year war from the interior RMA Scenarios Preempt the superior—anti access Asymmetric strategy—ASAT, info war Destroy C 2, prevent entry of logistics Preemptive paralysis of the enemy Local War Scenarios Use of rapid reaction forces Defend at border or frontier People’s War Traditionalists Major power threat E.g., Russia, India, United States RMA Enthusiasts No war for years Time to develop leap-ahead capabilities and technology, develop new doctrine, tactics Power Projection Advocates Local wars on China’s periphery E.g., Taiwan, Vietnam, Central Asian terrorists More modern and professional See Michael Pillsbury’s China Debates the Future Security Environment

6 6 The Goal: Shashoujian Simplistically interpreted as “assassin’s mace” –Shashou (hitman), Jian (mace, club sword) Roots in antiquity (Tang Dynasty, A.D.) Can be “weapons and equipment” and/or a “combat method” Think in terms of “airland battle” or “shock and awe” It is a way for the “inferior to defeat the superior” See Jason Bruzdzinski, Chapter 10, Civil Military Change In China

7 7 Two Ironies Tsien Hsue-shen (Qian Xuesen) –U.S. educated, helped found JPL, worked classified projects in WWII, expelled from U.S. prior to gaining citizenship, became father of China’s missile program (and was instrumental in establishing PLA OR) Sino-American Seminar on Methodologies in Defense Systems Analysis, 1987 and 1988

8 8 PLA Operations Research Models and simulations “main approach” to defense systems analysis Computerized simulations, ca Four approaches to war games –Semi-empirical (Lanchester) –Empirical (Dupuy) –Monte Carlo (Johnson) –Scientific/theoretical (von Neumann game theory)

9 9 Chinese War Game Development Naval doctrinal evaluation model, 1983 Cost/operational effectiveness of: –Air defense, 1983 –Ground artillery, 1985 –Anti-aircraft artillery, 1985 Great Wall I, tactical model, independent action forces, 1985 Yangtse River II, division war game, 1986 Air defense battle simulation, 1987

10 10 War Game Example Developed by OR section at AMS about Division/regiment level Networked, PC-based Graphics, data base, Chinese character processing Met commander’s requirements for training

11 11 Initialize Data: Weapon Index, Unit Combat Index Environmental Data, Attrition Index Coefficient Scenario Play Data Input Control Data Display: Initial Situation Initial Index Ratio of Both Sides Initial Force Ratio of Both Sides Manual Intervention Process Command & Control Sub-Model Movement Sub-Model Nuclear Attack Sub-Model Chemical/Artillery Fire Sub-Model Air-Ground/Ground-Air Sub-Model Display: Battle Play Force Table Two-Sided Index Attrition Rate Start Land Combat Sub-Model Yes End No Combat Ended?

12 12 Battle Laboratories CPX simulations for training, C2 evaluation, event/mission synchronization Got idea from U.S. –At least six battle labs have been stood up Other uses –Logistics training, LOGEX –Camouflage, concealment and deception technology, techniques

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16 16 Influence of Wang Shouyun Protégé of Qian Xuesen Wrote Modern War Game in 1982 Leader of Chinese delegation, Sino- U.S. Seminar on Methodologies in Defense Systems Analysis, Secretary general of COSTIND, 1997 Died in a mysterious accident in Dec. 1997

17 17 Influence of T. N. Dupuy Numbers, Predictions and War published in 1977 and read in PLA OR circles Lecture tours to China from Understanding War, 1987 Sino-American seminars Mentioned in dispatches Well known to Wang Shouyun, COSTIND QJMA license to CDSTIC, 1988 Multi-front model development,

18 18 Comprehensive National Power Chinese derived methodology Complex, many elements and indices AMS and CASS versions Helps to show –Status hierarchy in world politics –Power potential of rivals and partners –Who will best exploit RMA –Which side will win a war Also a rhetorical, political tool See Michael Pillsbury’s China Debates the Future Security Environment

19 19 Acquisition Process Handout: Comparison of PRC and U.S. acquisition stages/milestones Comments on other procurement activities –Planning for visitors –Acquiring information abroad CDSTIC and NTIS

20 20 Institutionalizing Transformation State-level and PLA think tanks –CDSTIC, AMS, NDU Academic research centers –CAPS Semi-private think tanks –Shanghai RimPac Center for Strategic and International Studies Have undergone major changes since late 1990s

21 21 Vignettes Air defense system RDT&E New, stovepipe research centers CAPS direct contract with PLA Radar displays Decision making is collective; a shared responsibility; trial balloons often used

22 22 Q&A Chuck Hawkins


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