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Poverty, the ‘New Middle Classes’ and Sustainable Development Peter Kingstone Professor and Co-Director, International Development Institute King’s College.

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Presentation on theme: "Poverty, the ‘New Middle Classes’ and Sustainable Development Peter Kingstone Professor and Co-Director, International Development Institute King’s College."— Presentation transcript:

1 Poverty, the ‘New Middle Classes’ and Sustainable Development Peter Kingstone Professor and Co-Director, International Development Institute King’s College London Presentation for the “Common Challenges, Multiple Perspectives: Middle Income Countries Experts’ Consultation “ UNDP, Seoul, Korea, May 13-15, 2013

2 Where do the world’s poor live: % of world poverty ($1.25), 2008

3 Why the Change: Large fall in the number of low-income countries Number of LICs and MICs

4 But global poverty didn’t fall much outside China... Number of Poor (millions)

5 The other big story: the ‘new’ but not so well-off middle classes

6 Share of informal employment in total non-agricultural employment Source: OECD, 2009 Country Egypt South Africa50.6 Argentina Brazil Mexico India Indonesia77.9 Thailand Turkey Romania5.422

7 Health Care costs fall heavily on households Per CapitaTotal HealthPublic ShareOut of Pocket Health ExpendExpend GDPTotal HealthShareTotal ExpendHealth Expend Lower Middle814%42%53% Income Upper Middle4886%55%31% Income High Income OECD4, %14% Source: Maria-Luisa Escobar, Charles Griffin, R. Shaw ( 2010)

8 Taxes: A key element in the fight against poverty

9 Fiscal Health in the emerging economies is tightly linked to commodity export revenues

10 What happens if commodity prices fall? Estimated Impact on Total Revenues as a Result of a 25% Decline in Real Commodity Prices Source: “Rethinking Reforms: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Escape Suppressed World Growth.” IDB, 2013


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